Summer, hurricane forecasts

Summer won’t get cooking until August, and the hurricane season should be a mild one, according to  AccuWeather Inc.

Loyal readers are aware of our wariness of seasonal outlooks, based on recent experiences – see the winter, and the 2013 hurricane seasons – but as long as meteorologists keep trying, we’ll keep sharing their thoughts.

In the outlooks released today, AccuWeather calls for continued drought in the West, a below-normal tropical-storm season in the Atlantic Basin, and rather typical summer weather around here.

Thanks to a blocking pattern over Alaska and the Yukon, the Philadelphia region should remain in a frontal battleground during June and July, said AccuWeather’s Jack Boston.

That would lead to unsettled weather that would argue against prolonged heat waves, he said, a situation that will change during August, when conditions would turn hot and humid.

As for the hurricane season, as forecasters at Colorado State University and WSI Corp., AccuWeather’s are looking for a below-normal season.

They are calling for 10 named tropical storms, those with winds of at least 39 m.p.h., and five hurricanes, winds of 74 m.p.h. or better, expected in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Gulf and Caribbean.

The normals are 12 named storms and six hurricanes.

AccuWeather is counting on El Nino -- unusually warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific –  to develop and generate strong upper-level winds that would snuff out incipient hurricanes in the Atlantic.

We will mention again that last year AccuWeather and others had called for brisk hurricane traffic.. What followed was one of the quietest seasons on record.

No one could complain if they were right about this year’s outlooks.