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Snow: Forecasts vs. reality

On a summery afternoon, a look back at winter on the eve of a milestone.

The region is about to pass a significant anniversary in its snow climatology.

Officially, 0.1 inches of snow was measured at Philadelphia International Airport on April 27, 1967, and no measurable snow ever has fallen after that date in Philadelphia in the period of record.

So we are going to go out on a limb and predict that no more snow will visit before all those fresh and delicate leaves now opening before our eyes once again age and decay.

At the insistence of loyal reader Steve Lapin, we thought we would take a look back at the seasonal snow forecasts issued by various TV weather folks and show how they fared.

As a footnote, more than once we've heard the complaint that we in the media are remiss in following up on the outcome of those long-range forecasts. Rather than argue, we'll enter a plea on that point.

Meanwhile, thanks to the dilligence of Tom Thunstrom, keeper of the excellent Phillyweather.net, here is what the outlooks foresaw in the way of snow. For the record, the official total at Philadelphia International Airport was 44 inches.

CBS 3 -- 16-23"

6 ABC -- 14.5"

FOX 29 -- 16-28"

NBC 10 -- 15," then 36"*

*Meteorologist Glenn Schwartz revised his forecast to 36" upward on Jan. 5 to 36".

His second estimate was closest to the total. However, his forecast of 14 inches for February and March was more than double what actually accumulated.