Snow forecasts not looking good
Another tough winter for those long-range outlooks.
Snow forecasts not looking good
The morning bird song is getting ever louder, the midday sun is toasting the insides of cars, and the light is becoming brighter by the day.
But the surest sign we’ve seen that the meteorological winter will end with a whimper this week is the relative quiet we see on the American Weather Forums chat board.
For most of the region this has been a dud of a winter, but we can’t recall the last time we saw a week begin without so much as a storm rumor.
The models continue to show blocking that would suggest a chilly start to March that could persist well into the month. That doesn’t mean it’s going to snow, however.
Based on the forecasts for the next few days, the Dec. 1-Feb. 28 period – defined as the meteorological winter -- is going to end up about 3 degrees above normal.
That’s not among the elite for warmth, but certainly a s healthy departure from the long-term averages.
And it’s quite a significant departure from the long-range winter outlooks, which generally foresaw an active, snowy season.
Tom Thunstrom, who runs the excellent phillyweather.net site, has an archive of the winter outlooks, which you can find on his home page.
For snow, the most-conservative estimate on the list came from Fox 29, which estimated 18 to 24 inches. NBC 10 went with a bullish 30 to 35 inches, or 10 to 15 inches above normal.
The seasonal snow total stands at an even 7 inches, which leaves the two-season total still shy of a foot.
Heavy rains are in the picture for this week, but no heavy snow, and not even a rumor of one.
I love snow. The more to better. It's even better when all the anti-snow people start whining.— Mark1
Comment removed.- The cold makes us appreciate the spring all the more.
And in 3 months half the people in here will be whining about how hot it is.— Tatt2 - At least the broke city didn't have to shell out much for snow removal.— andrew69
- Have they ever said "it's gonna be a mild winter?" I feel like they say it'll be a rough one every single year.— cloudkitt
- @ cloudkitt, you're right. There are more predictions for the STORM OF THE CENTURY when we can barely pull out 2-3 inches in the philly area when it does snow. Even with so few inches you would think the world is ending when you watch the news. SMH— counselormom
- This winter once again proved that long range forecasts are worthless not to mention some forecasts from 12 hours away.
With all the technology at their disposal the mets only understand a small -portion of what makes the weather do what it does.
No need to wait for next winters forecast :here it is.
Periods of cold with periods of mild temps . Snow will occur when you look out the window and see it falling.Dont expect a white Xmas as the odds are against it.There will be rain at times with snow when several things come together at just the right time.I also predict incredible over reaction to any mention of snow . I also predict that those who operate weather sites on the internet will predict a cold and stormy winter and of course the usual 8 o'clock tease from the local stations about the potential for a coating of snow.— gardner - They can't get today's weather correct, much less a forecast 3 months from now.
— rounddollar - Schwartz wants snow. He always predicts on the high side. Without snow TV weathermen become irrelevant.— Drew777
- i love daisy dukes and bikinis. bring em on.— UnaBlogger
Don't be surprised if we get bashed with a March Blizzard.....- Starting to like Global Warming...— baworks
- The weather in Mexico City was chilli today and hot tamale.— Ralph 1
- Don't care if I never see another flake of snow.— Jen D
- What am I to do with all these loaves?— hodg99
Tony Wood has been writing about the atmosphere for The Inquirer for 26 years. E-mail Tony here. And read all his columns here.
