Snow forecasts not looking good
Another tough winter for those long-range outlooks.
Snow forecasts not looking good
The morning bird song is getting ever louder, the midday sun is toasting the insides of cars, and the light is becoming brighter by the day.
But the surest sign we’ve seen that the meteorological winter will end with a whimper this week is the relative quiet we see on the American Weather Forums chat board.
For most of the region this has been a dud of a winter, but we can’t recall the last time we saw a week begin without so much as a storm rumor.
The models continue to show blocking that would suggest a chilly start to March that could persist well into the month. That doesn’t mean it’s going to snow, however.
Based on the forecasts for the next few days, the Dec. 1-Feb. 28 period – defined as the meteorological winter -- is going to end up about 3 degrees above normal.
That’s not among the elite for warmth, but certainly a s healthy departure from the long-term averages.
And it’s quite a significant departure from the long-range winter outlooks, which generally foresaw an active, snowy season.
Tom Thunstrom, who runs the excellent phillyweather.net site, has an archive of the winter outlooks, which you can find on his home page.
For snow, the most-conservative estimate on the list came from Fox 29, which estimated 18 to 24 inches. NBC 10 went with a bullish 30 to 35 inches, or 10 to 15 inches above normal.
The seasonal snow total stands at an even 7 inches, which leaves the two-season total still shy of a foot.
Heavy rains are in the picture for this week, but no heavy snow, and not even a rumor of one.
Long-range winter outlook predictions are about as accurate as the Birds front office predictions for the upcoming season issued during training camp.......— Earl J
This is Philly.— BobSG- Rainstorm Amy will be followed by Partly Cloudy Anne with a chance of Sunny Day Arnold.— pic man
- Yeah, when did they start this idiocy of naming of cold fronts? Back in a day we just called them rainy days. — Kolitz
- Looks like a dud from here. My snowblower has been sitting ready and hasn't moved. I'm actually disappointed.— PhillySubsMac
Outstanding! I absolutely HATE snow!
And I hate the whiners who root for snow each winter. Looks like they LOST again! :-)- I agree. The snow whiners are sissies. Want to go skiing or snowboarding? Fly out west. The Poconos is NOT real skiing. Now STFU about snow already....it's just about Spring Time sissies! — bowersNRAnut
- They can't predict the weather for the next 3 months but somehow people think the climate for the next 100 years can be predicted with 100% accuracy.— Phillies2008WSChamps
- John Bolaris is still predicting the Storm of the Century (as soon as he cleans up his pants).— neddyflanders
- He has a painting up for sale cheap. He got it from two Russian hookers in Florida.
- YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!— Justicek
- Phillies2008WSChamps, As Steve DiMartino says - there's a difference between climate and the weather.
http://www.nynjpaweather.com/
— phillyPeteZ - The Tonner just sharted himself— Dunsmore
- Well, as long as you don't use your snow blower to clean it up, I really don't care. — Tatt2
Tony Wood has been writing about the atmosphere for The Inquirer for 26 years. E-mail Tony here. And read all his columns here.
