Sunday, February 7, 2016

Snow: Sloppy details

Winter storm warning for Chesco; slop advisories elsewhere.

Snow: Sloppy details


As we wrote in a blog item last week -- and we make no claims to originality -- those extended-range snow forecast should be branded "for amusement purposes only."

That lesson is evident once again as we are now within about 36 hours of the anticipated first wet flakes from the next snow threat, and the accumulation estimates still remain up in the air.

With the computer-model guidance continuing to wobble on subtle, important details, the National Weather Service is warning that that its snow forecasts have a wind margin of error.

For now, a winter-storm watch for potentially 4 to 6 inches of snow is in effect for Chester County.

Elsewhere, the general call for the immediate Philadelphia area is 1 to 2 inches, but this afternoon the weather service is saying that the 4 to 6 totals can't be ruled out.

Here is the lastest snow map.

One big factor will be the temperatures, which are likely to hold above freezing during the day Wednesday.

With the March sun turning paved surfaces into hot plates, any snow would have a hard time sticking unless it came down real hard.

Once the sun goes down, assuming the precipitation was all snow, some accumulation would be possible on grass, maiboxes, car roofs, the and the like.

Of course, any change in the path of the coastal storm could have a huge impact on snow amounts and where they fall.

In any event, wind gusts up to 45 m.p.h. from the north and northeast are expected, with at least minor coastal flooding possible.

If the snow forecasts don't have a different look in the morning, we'd be surprised.




Inquirer Weather Columnist
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Tony Wood Inquirer Weather Columnist
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