Snow: It’s getting late, but these things usually happen

One of the amazing things about the numerical models that forecast the weather is that they have the capacity to see the counterintuitive – like snow after a February interrupted by May.

Of course, as we know, they also have a maddening capacity to see things that will never happen.

The consensus among the computer guidance is that some snow will fall Friday morning. Most likely, it would be in the white-rain, white-grass, wet-street variety, perhaps a slushy inch in the immediate Philly area.

A bigger storm could affect the region early next week, but knowing what we know of computer models, we'll take it one virtual threat at a time.

Snow this late in the season is hardly unusual. In the snow records dating to the winter of 1884-85, measurable snow has fallen in Philadelphia after March 10 in about two-thirds of the winters.

The long-term average snowfall from March 10 on is roughly 2.5 inches, which would suggest that most of the snowfalls have been about as forgettable as a blustery day in April.

And, indeed, that has been the case.

The late, great ones are rarities, and the region has had only a handful of snows after March 10 of 8 inches or more – and none since 1993 -- but this period has produced a couple of superstars.

Among them was the above-referenced "Storm of the Century" on March 13, 1993, and East Coast mega-storm that iced a foot of snow with hours of sleet, all solidifying into a concrete-like mass that locked down the region.

And while we're on the subject of legends, the Blizzard of 1888 struck in March 12, leaving a respectable 10.5 inches and absolutely clocking New York City.

We've posted about the surprise Easter snow of April 3-4, 1915, and its 19.4 inches, the "Equinox Storm" of 1958 remains one of the most disruptive on record, with 3 feet of snow reported in Chester County.

Nothing remotely that dramatic is in the forecast, and this time of year, almost nothing is more evanescent than a snow cover.