Rain could keep summer heat at bay

This week's rain might end up helping saving some money for the region's energy consumers.

In the summer outlook posted Wednesday morning – incidentally, one very much at odds with the day-by-day 90-day forecasts it began issuing last month, and we'll get back to that -- AccuWeather Inc. is calling for a toasty start to summer.

However, the company's chief long-range forecaster, Paul Pastelok, says wet soil could have a retarding effect on early heat.

Also, of course, it could stave off any drought threat.

Pastelok said he believes that summer will see an above-normal number of 90-plus days in Philly. The normal is 24.

The El Niño sea-surface warming in the tropical Pacific is waning, and it is not expected to have any impact on summer weather.

Pastelok said he expects the summer to be marked by dry heat, with the warm drought conditions to the northwest sliding eastward.

Those who don't particularly welcome summer heat or the attendant air-conditioning bills should root for more rain.

Research has shown that soil moisture can have a significant tempering influence on summer heat, and that is one of the factors taken into account by the Climate Prediction Center in its seasonal outlooks.

For the summer, AccuWeather has Philadelphia in a zone between "very warm" and "hot."

Fans of the new AccuWeather 90-day day-to-day forecasts might find that prospect, and other aspects of the outlook, surprising.

In its release, the company advised that "heat will come on strong in June for the Northeast and Midatlantic."

If that's the case, the day-by-day forecasts that were on the site Wednesday would need some serious fine-tuning.

For Philly, not a single 90-degree high appears until July 7 in the day-by-day format. In New York, not a single 90-degree high was forecast through Aug. 1.

Pastelok says the computer model driving those forecasts appears to have a cool bias and that the meteorologists are working on it.

We wouldn't complain if that cool bias was on to something.