Hurricane Matthew could become threat to U.S.

Hurricane Hermine reinforced the fundamental reality that nature remains too mercurial to put too much trust in computer models that try to capture how the atmosphere will behave days in advance.

With the 8 p.m. update of Aug. 31, the projected path had Hermine taking dead aim on the Jersey Shore in five days.

Nine hours later, the forecast path had it heading into open waters after grazing the North Carolina coast.

As it turned out, after plunging the ocean, Hermine faded into obscurity well southeast of New England, and the amazing U.S. hurricane luck that set in after the devastating 2005 season continued.

With its 5 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center declared that Matthew, spinning in the heart of the Caribbean, had become a hurricane, with peak winds of 75 mph, just 1 mph above hurricane criterion.

The hurricane center expects it to become a Category 2 storm, with peak winds at 100 mph by day's end Saturday.

During the weekend it is expected to makes a sharp turn northward and make a close approach to Jamaica.

The potential threat to the United States already is getting some buzz. The government's seven-day outlook has it paralleling the Florida East Coast.

But in the "No Panic Before It's Time" category, that would be a mighty trip that would include a visit to Cuba, and as AccuWeather's Alex Sosnowski points out, Matthew would have to contend with mountainous terrain, much rougher on hurricanes than the warm waters of the Caribbean.

And Matthew's future will depend on its interactions with larger forces in the atmosphere whose behavior simply can't be predicted with any precision this far out.

For verification, see Hermine.