January, Joe Bastardi, and Glenn Schwartz

So much for the January thaw. Temperatures yesterday and Tuesday finished above normal for the first time since right after the new year, but that could be about it for the warmth this month.

Recall that the pre-season consensus was that with La Nina cooling conditions in the equatorial Pacific, winter would get off to a chilly start and then moderate in January.

But Accu-Weather's long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi says this month has taken cold turns he had anticipated, and given the strength of the La Nina -- it was solidly in "strong" category as of Monday -- "there is nothing like this in history."

Early in the month, both Bastardi and NBC-10's Glenn Schwartz bumped down their January temperature estimates. In their updates, Bastardi said the Philadelphia readings would be 1-2 degrees below normal; Schwartz went all the way to 5.

So how are they doing? Through yesterday, the official average temperature for the month in Philadelphia was 30.5, or 1.9 degrees below normal. Remember, the temperatures were in the mid-50s Jan. 1 and 2.

Based on the official forecast, the monthly average would drop to 29.3 early next week. While temperature forecasts become less reliable farther out in time, the Climate Prediction Center this afternoon has Philadelphia and the majority of contiguous 48 states in a blue bubble of cold through Feb. 3.

Bastardi had been counting on a late-month warm-up that keeps getting pushed back. Now he believes it could stay cold until about Feb. 10.

As for his January competition with Schwartz, he says, "I think Glenn's going to win."