The coming storms

With only 63 shopping days left before the official start of the hurricane season, Accu-Weather Inc. issued its tropical outlook this morning.

It's calling for an above-average season with named tropical storms, with eight of those becoming hurricanes, with peak winds of at least 74 m.p.h. The averages are about 10 and six.

While that isn't quite as busy as last year's, Accu-Weather is looking for more U.S. landfalls this year. You may recall that despite all those storms in 2010, the United States and its taxpayers were spared major damage.

Right now, however, New Jersey appears to be in a good place because the long-range wind upper-level wind forecasts suggest that the Northeast would be spared a direct hit, said veteran hurricane forecaster Dan Kottlowski.

He said the places looking most vulnerable right now are the traditional hurricane "magnet areas," such as the Texas-Louisiana, Florida and Carolina coasts.

In the first tropical outlook it has issued since long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi abruptly left the company last month, Accu-Weather said it expected three hurricanes to become "major," with winds of 111 m.p.h. or more.

Kottlowski said winds in the high atmosphere, up to 60,000 feet, and lighter winds closer to the surface should be favorable for hurricane development this season.

In addition, sea-surface temperatures in the hurricane spawning region remain a little above normal, although not as toasty as they were last season.

If this seems early for a hurricane forecast, the Colorado State University team of Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach issued their first outlook in December.

It was similar to Accu-Weather's in total storm numbers -- 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes -- but it called for five of those to become majors.