El Nino appeared to be all but a sure thing a few months back, and while above-normal warming still is likely over a large area of the tropical Pacific, it is no sure thing.
Today’s weekly update from the Climate Prediction Center sees a 65 percent likelihood of El Nino during the fall and winter, down from 80 percent two weeks ago.
If it does happen, be “weak” or “low moderate,” said Anthony Barnston, scientist at the International Research Institute, affiliated with Columbia University.
“It might not show up until September,” he added. IRI’s forecast has a peak probability of 66 percent for the November-December-January period. The probablity was above 80 in the June outlook.