With snow threats, it's virtual versus reality.
Yesterday, as it was becoming ever-more obvious that a winter that peaked before Halloween was only too anxious to yield to spring, the respected European forecast model was seeing a major snowstorm for next week.
It was a forecast that defied the pattern of the winter, the pattern of the atmosphere, and common sense.
This morning we can report that common sense has triumphed. The storm is off the table, and a spring warm-up looms ineluctably heading into March.
Once again it was a lesson in how a virtual snow threat that shows up a week away should not be taken too seriously.
Tony Gigi, meteorologist at the National Weather Service, says that if a computer model showed you in the bull's-eye for a storm, say, a week from Friday, you'd have a hard time finding a safer place to be that day.
Computers just aren't that good 192 hours out.
You'll find his explanation of why the European threat was doomed even before it became a gleam in a computer's eye in this American Weather Forums thread.
It's near the bottom under his posting handle, "Rainshadow;" look for the dog.
In the meantime, after a March-like day Friday, a chilly weekend, and a midweek muddle, look for spring to pick up the pace of the invasion, and the inevitable routing of a winter that peaked before Halloween.
We can't vouch for the 192-hour forecasts, but we can boldly predict that the clocks will be turned forward in about 374 hours, and the spring equinox will occur in 614 hours.