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Archive: June, 2009

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Friday, June 26, 2009

Yesterday I did an interview on Iranian women's role in the current upheaval with Mary Glenney who hosts a radio program dealing with women's issues on WMNF-FM in Tampa, Florida. I just wrote a column on this subject on Friday.

I promised that I would post the website for the remarkeable One Million Signatures campaign which hundreds of women have been conducting in Iran since 2007 in an effort to press their parliament to revise laws that discriminate against women. Many of their leaders had been jailed even before the current revolt, but they are bound to have been inspired to fight on as they watched the central role of women in the last few weeks. The current regime may try to ignores that fact, but it will continue to haunt them. 

The website is:http://www.we-change.org/english/ and I suggest that you watch the short video that describes the women's efforts. It should inspire an international campaign by women's groups in support of greater rights for Iranian women, no matter who is in power.

Posted by Trudy Rubin @ 10:45 AM  Permalink | 2 comments
Friday, June 26, 2009

  Iran has been mounting a bizarre campaign of agitprop, trying to cast the blame for death of the 26-year-old student, Neda Agha-Sultan, on a foreign hand.

   Horrific scenes Neda's death, filmed by a cell-phone camera, have spread round the world by YouTube, and she has become the icon of Iranians' struggle for justice.  Fearful of her power in death, Iranian officials and state-run media have accused: a banned (cultish) opposition group of exiles, known as the MEK, a BBC correspondent who was deported (I kid you not), and, of course, the CIA, for her killing. The latest regime version, put out today, is that one of the opposition demonstrators shot her down.

   The fact that the regime keeps putting out different stories shows how nervous it is about her legacy. Iranian officials have forbidden her family to hold a memorial service, and there are reports they have kicked her family out of its apartment.

    But now, an Iranian doctor, who rushed to her side and can be seen in the film clip trying to put pressure on the wound, has spoken out about what apparently happened. He lives in England, to which he returned this week, and recognizes that making this information public will probably mean he can't go home again.

     He told the BBC that bystanders pulled a baseej militiaman off a motorbike after he apparently pulled the trigger, and took his identity card, but let him flee. According to the doctor, the basiji admitted he shot her. So someone out there knows the name  of Neda's probable killer, but undoubtedly would fear to make it public. You can read the full story at: 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/8119713.stm

    Meantime, the Iranian government will probably finger some poor soul and force him to confess he did the heinous deed as an agent of the West. But this time no one except the most hardened ideologue will believe the conspiracy theories.

Posted by Trudy Rubin @ 10:35 AM  Permalink | Post a comment
Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Posted by Jonathan Tannenwald @ 8:21 PM  Permalink | 2 comments
Sunday, June 21, 2009

Will those, like Sen. John McCain, who continue to compare Iran's upheaval to the 1989 uprisings in Eastern Europe, please read some history.

There is no comparison between the two cases. Eastern European dissidents were wholly and unabashedly pro-American, and called for US support. And they were united among themselves in wanting to throw off the domination of their country by an outside power - the Soviet Union. 

Iranian opposition leaders ARE NOT calling for US support, because they know it could be fatal, and would not help them in their efforts. Most of them are nationalists who would reject any Western interference. The leaders of the opposition are part of the governing elite who want change, not revolution.

Indeed, the upheaval in Iran reflects an internal power struggle and the key opposition leaders seek reform of the system, not its overthrow. Opposition leaders would not want an Obama endorsement because they know it would give the regime the excuse to brand them as CIA agents and charge them with treason.

The United States has a long, troubled history with Iran in which we were often seen as the outside imperialist power. We overthrew an elected Iranian overnment in 1953 and have called for regime change in recent years.  The last thing opposition leaders want or need is a similar call now. Iran is deeply divided, with a substantial segment of the country still supporting the regime; most Iranians do not want a civil war or a bloody revolution, but are just hoping for a more open system.

So what is it that Sen. McCain, and others braying for an Obama endorsement of the Iranian opposition, think we can offer the Iranian rebels? A quick ticket to jail or execution?

This exhortation to moral righteousness seems more about the critics themselves - their self-image and their desire to use the Iran issue for partisan politicis - than it is about helping the people of Iran. 

 

 

Posted by Trudy Rubin @ 1:41 PM  Permalink | 6 comments
Friday, June 19, 2009

   One of the more startling commentaries on what Obama should do about Iran has come from Paul Wolfowitz, former Deputy Secretary of Defense under Donald Rumsfeld.

    Wolfowitz was a prime architect of the Iraq war, believing democracy would come easilly to that country. In Nov. 2002 he told me in an interview that post-Saddam Iraq (following our ouster of the dictator) would be like post-liberation (World War II) France. In other words, a DeGaulle figure - in this case Wolfowitz' friend Ahmed Chalabi, would return to Baghdad, as DeGaulle returned to France after liberation, and would be welcomed by millions en route. Then Chalabi/DeGaulle  would establish democracy and the Americans could go home.

     This stunning lack of comprehension about Iraq's history, culture and politics, should make Wolfowitz modest about prescribing policy for Iran. But no, this time he compares Iran to the Philippines, where US backing for people power helped oust Ferdinand Marcos.

     If Wolfowitz really thinks there is a comparison between the US relationship with Manila, where we had enormous influence with Marcos and widespread popularity across the country, and the U.S. relationship with Tehran - where an open endorsement of opposition leaders would give a hostile regime the perfect  opening to dismiss them as CIA stooges - then he understands Iran just as well as he did Iraq.

      Obama has already declared support for Iranians' right to express themselves freely, without any violent crackdown. If the regime pulls a Tiananmen Square crackdown, he will have to condemn this strongly, and to recognize that "engagement" won't yield the changes he hoped for.

      But strong US support for Musavi won't help the demonstrators; this is an Iranian struggle that will have to be waged and won by Iranians.   Just as Chalabi wasn't DeGaulle, Khamenei is not Marcos. Read some history, Mr. Wolfowitz, pleade!

Posted by Trudy Rubin @ 12:11 PM  Permalink | 1 comment
Thursday, June 18, 2009

I've gotten criticism from two directions on my Wednesday column in which I said that - even though the Iranian election s was stolen -the United States should not publicly endorse the Iranian opposition.

Some question whether the election was really stolen. Several emailers referred to a Washington Post op-ed which cited a poll claiming President Ahmadinejad had a 2-1 lead over challenger Mir Hossein Musavi.

Here's my reply: The Ballen-Doherty poll was taken three weeks-one month before the election, when Musavi had just announced as a candidate (Iran election periods are short). His entire momentum built after the poll was completed.

Moreover, many questions have been raised about that poll since the WashPost piece appeared; more than half the respondents failed to identify their favorite candidate for the pollsters.

------------------------------------------

Other emailers insisted the US had a "moral responsibility" to strongly back the Iranian protesters. My reply:

In my visits to Iran, opposition leaders, including student leaders, have told me the last thing they want is open endorsement by the U.S. government, which leaves them open to charges that they are American agents.This would certainly hold true for opposition leader Mousavi, who was a leader of the Islamic revolution, and also for the bulk of those in the streets. Iran is a proud country, which has had a troubled history with America, and any credible change in its system can only be made by its own people, not by us

President Obama’s words will not help the opposition, but could hurt it. He should support the principle that the Iranian people have the right to be heard, and their votes counted fairly. He should stress that the world is watching. But it would be counterproductive for him to openly back one side.

----------------------

 One reader argued that the Iranians would claim U.S. interference no matter what we do. My response: 

The fact that the regime waited so long to claim US intervention indicates they know they can't make that case effectively, as they did under President Bush. Obama's position has undercut their ability to claim that this is all a U.S. plot.  Iranians, and the world, can see that this is a grass-roots, Iranian-driven protest movement.

Posted by Trudy Rubin @ 5:53 PM  Permalink | 1 comment
Wednesday, June 17, 2009

     Those of you who are as mesmerized as I am by ongoing developments in Iran, probably know that the best way to get fresh news right now is via Iranian citizen submissions to Twitter and YouTube.


     Foreign journalists have been kicked out or banned from covering street demos, and the regime is trying to crack down on internet, twitter, websites, etc., but film clips and info is getting through. Much of it isn't confirmed, but you can get a sense of what's going on.


      I'm listing below some of the best web sites I've found that are compiling clips, emails, tweets, and other info emerging hourly:


      http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com  - Sullivan's Daily Dish is keeping a running tally of emerging information.


      http://niacblog.wordpress.com - this site, run by the National Iran American Council which aims at Iranian Americans, is doing an excellent job of keeping in touch with reports from inside the country.

      www.newyorker.com go to News Desk, where correspondant Laura Secor, who has written extensively from Tehran, is doing excellent analysis.

      http://tehranbureau.com  a good compilation of independent media and reporting on Iran.

      www.Huffingtonpost.com - has also been running good compilations and video clips.

      http://go.philly.com/irantwitter - Philly.com has set up a direct link to tweets on Iran.

       http://garysick.tumblr.com/ - Gary Sick is an extremely knowledgeable expert on Iranian affairs. His blog is more analytical than up to the minute.

        And of course, you can just go to YouTube and search for clips, but some of these filters make it easier and quicker to find the most relevant info.

      I will continue to add sites. Let me know if you have some additional ones you want me to post.


       

Posted by Trudy Rubin @ 2:02 PM  Permalink | Post a comment
About Trudy Rubin
Trudy Rubin’s Worldview column runs on Wednesdays and Sundays. In the past five years she has visited Iraq nine times and has also written from Iran, Pakistan, Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, China and South Korea . She is the author of Willful Blindness: the Bush Administration and Iraq, a book of her columns from 2002-2004. In 2001 she was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize in commentary and in 2008 she was awarded the Edward Weintal prize for international reporting.