Egyptian spring has turned to glum autumn
Nine months after the Tahrir Square revolution that over threw President Hosni Mubarak, the mood in Egypt is glum.
Egyptian spring has turned to glum autumn
Trudy Rubin, Inquirer Opinion Columnist
Cairo. Egypt. Nine months after the Tahrir Square revolution that over threw President Hosni Mubarak, the mood in Egypt is glum.
I’ve just come from Tunisia where Sundays elections – the first of the Arab Spring – were marked by the high turnout and excellent organization. In contrast, Egyptians are confused and uncertain about how their upcoming elections will work.
With dozens of party lists and huge number of independent candidates, no one is quite certain how the voting will work, when the first round starts in late November. Nor do Egyptian authorities appear anywhere near as organized as the Tunisians were. Meantime the economy, and tourism, are in the tank. Egyptians in every line of work – who are eager to seize their freedom – are striking for benefits the country cannot afford to pay.
A couple of things are certain. The biggest winner – sure to take a plurality – is the Freedom and Justice party, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Another smaller chunk of votes will be picked up by salafist parties, comprised of hardline Islamic fundamentalists who have turned from violence to elections.
The Muslim Brotherhood has large amounts of money – they just built a huge new headquarters in Cairo that is rumored to have cost ten million dollars. Stories abound of huge donations from rich Saudis or Gulf Arabs, who are also believed to be bankrolling the salafists. The latter have enough cash to set up satellite TV stations populated with radical clerics who have been known to broadcast hateful propaganda against Egypt’s Coptic Christians.
Most Egyptians believe another block of seats will be won by backers of Mubarak’s old NDP party, who will come back as independents or under a new party name.
Lurking in the background, the military is still the main power in the country, and many Egyptians believe they are in cahoots with the Islamists and former NDP members, because they know these people and think they can control them.
Meantime, liberal and social democratic parties have fragmented and so failed to united into a grand alliance that could offset the Islamists. Nor have they been able to raise sufficient funds to get their message out; most liberal businessmen are afraid to contribute from fear that they will alienate the military who might harm their businesses in retaliation.
Bottom line: Egypt’s first election post-revolution is likely to be dominated by conservative Islamists, but may be so fragmented as to be unable to govern. Optomists here say it will take five years for the population to grasp the culture and mechanics of democracy. Pessimists fear that five more years of chaos may send the country lurching towards fundamentalist Islam or economic collapse.
I will be talking to many Egyptians next week in an effort to decide where I stand on the optimist-pessimist pole.
I had a feeling that things were going to go bust for us. We delude ourselves as to the nauture of these people and their culture. How much have we forgotten and how ignorant have we allowed ourselves to become?— crystalrainbowspirit1- The problem isn't "people and culture", it's power and politics. Mubarak is gone but his regime and the old elite still rule. Unorganized popular rebellions can oust a politician, but only organized powerful groups can determine what happens next. That's true in all cultures and amongst all peoples.— PHILEXILE
- As we sit and debate outcomes in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, etal, little attention is being given to the nature of uprisings and demonstrations worldwide. No one in the MSM has seen fit to question whether there exists conspiracy. Yes, conspiracy! With the exception of countries ruled with iron fists, observable discontent has progressed across Europe, the M.E, North Africa and now the US. Since May, 2010, when global progressive forces manufactured a reason to join hands with "palestinians " and instigate and embarrass the State of Israel, it is reasonable to question the existence of an insidious connection between the objectives of a secular elite and attempts to create a new world order. For diametrically opposed groups to join forces and conspire as a group is reason for concern. Though demonstrations have distinctive characteristics, there is a common theme. In the US, where politics is contentious but no where near the revolutionary pitch of others, the nebulous "Occupy" movement spreads across America. The fact that these "occupations" lack similar revolutionary fervor, isn't it apparent to the media that they have finally manufactured a cause of discontent? Is the ghost of Saul Alinsky lurking in the background? Why have some high ranking democrats, political activists, such as unions and Sharpton and outspoken entertainers, overtly expressed their support for a movement which supposedly lacks demonstrable demands? Why haven't the so-called apolitical participants attacked the Obama administration? Why hasn't his teflon finish been tarnished? Are these demonstrations created as a means of deflecting greater attention to our floudering economy and failed foreign policy? Will these demonstrations culminate in a renewed call for reelecting Obama? Will liberal pundits and the administration outwardly question the tide of these demonstators? I think not!— lefty
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