NEW YORK @ PHILADELPHIA

The Giants are suddenly looking vulnerable after two losses to good NFC Teams. The Giants need Eli Manning to complete over 60 percent of his passes while also getting a solid 4.5+ ypc from the running game. If the Giants offense can hit these targets they are favored winning 55 percent of the simulations. However, if Eli Manning throws 1 or more INT and the RBs are held under 4.5 ypc the Eagles are the heavy 76 percent favorite. The Giants defense will look to pressure Donovan McNabb as much as possible. The Giants defense has a 50 percent chance of having at least 3 sacks and if they do the Giants are slight 51 percent favorites.

HOUSTON @ BUFFALO

The Bills are winning the same percentage with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing than they do with starter Trent Edwards, which does not bode well for Edwards going forward. The Texans say Andre Johnson will not miss the game. If Johnson and Owen Daniels both have at least 75 receiving yards and Steve Slaton rushes for at least 50 yards the Texans have a 59 percent chance of winning. The Bills need another big game from Lee Evans. If Evans has 1+ TDs and the Bills do not turn the ball over more than once the Bills have a 70 percent chance winning by an average score of Buffalo 27, Houston 21.

CLEVELAND @ CHICAGO

The Bears problems are obvious to everyone -- turnovers and the inability to run the ball. The Browns are the second worst team in the league stopping the run and Matt Forte should finally break out for a big game. There is a 60 percent chance he rushes for at least 80 yards. If Forte has 80+ yards and the Bears do not turn the ball over more than once Chicago is heavy 97 percent favorites. If the Bears turn the ball over 3+ times and Forte runs for under 80 yards the Browns actually have a 51 percent chance of winning. 

SEATTLE @ DALLAS

The Cowboys offense is expected to have another strong game with a 58 percent chance of 400+ total yards and if they hit this level the Cowboys have a 90 percent chance with an average score of DAL 35, SEA 18. However, if the Seahawks can take away the running game and hold the Cowboys to under 100 rushing yards they improve their chances from 17 to nearly 30 percent. If Seattle can also force at least 3 Cowboys turnovers they have a 42 percent chance. For Seattle to upset Dallas they need to stop the run, force Cowboys turnovers and do not turn the ball over more than once. If they do all 3 the Seahawks have a 52 percent chance.

SAINT LOUIS @ DETROIT

Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford may not be ready for this game. If they both are healthy the Lions have a 60 percent chance of winning. However, if both are not ready to play the Rams are 53 percent favorites. Steven Jackson has had a good year averaging over 90 yards per game, but he has zero rushing TDs because of the team struggles in the Red Zone. Jackson has a 34 percent chance of rushing of getting his first TD and if he has at least 1 TD the Rams win over 65 percent of the time. If he does not have a TD the Rams win just 40 percent of the time. 

MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY

This game is incredibly close in simulations with both teams winning right around 50 percent. In games this close it typically comes down to turnover margin. The Packers need to protect Aaron Rodgers because many lost fumbles come off of sacks. If Rodgers is sacked no more than 3 times the Packers have a 66 percent chance. But if the Vikings sack Rodgers 5 or more times Green Bay only has a 35 percent chance. As great as Minnesota has been Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson do have their fair share of turnovers. If Green Bay has at least 1 Favre turnover and 1 Adrian Peterson lost fumble the Packers get the big 64 percent edge. 

JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE

The Titans pass defense has allowed opposing QBs to complete over 70 percent of their passes and only have 4 INTs in 6 games. If David Garrard completes over 70 percent of his passes with zero interceptions the Jaguars have a 58 percent chance. But if Tennessee can limit Garrard to under a 62 percent completion percentage and 1 or more INTs, the Titans are the 57 percent favorite. The Titans are doing a good job limiting Maurice Jones-Drew who is averaging just 73 rushing yards per sim. If the Titans hold Jones-Drew to under 80 rushing yards Tennessee has a 61 percent chance. 

SAN FRANCISCO @ INDIANAPOLIS

The 49ers do not have much of a chance to beat the Colts, but QB Alex Smith does give a slightly better chance winning 15 percent with Smith and 10 percent with Shaun Hill. The 49ers need to get a huge 100 rushing yard 1+ TDs from Frank Gore and at least 1 TD each from Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree to pull off the upset. In these simulations the 49ers have a 52 percent chance. The 49ers cannot expect the Colts to make mistakes. There is only a 38 percent chance the Colts have 2 or more turnovers. If the Colts do have 2 or more turnovers the 49ers chances improve from 13 to 22 percent. 

MIAMI @ NEW YORK

The Jets could not stop the Dolphins Wild Cat in their earlier match-up. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are averaging over 4.7 ypc for over 130 yards. If the Jets can hold the duo to under 4 ypc the Jets are heavy 70 percent favorites, but if they average over 5 ypc the Dolphins are strong 60 percent favorites. The Jets also have to hope Mark Sanchez does not turn the ball over. He is averaging 1 INT per simulation. If Sanchez has 1 or more INTs the Jets win just 40 percent of the time, but if he has 0 INTs the Jets have a 68 percent chance. 

CAROLINA @ ARIZONA

Jake Delhomme and his rash in interceptions started with the playoff disaster vs the Cardinals. The Cardinals defense has 7 INTs in 6 games and there is a 49 percent chance they have at least 2 INTs this week, assuming Delhomme is the starter. In this scenario the Cardinals win 83 percent of the simulations. If the Panthers do not turn the ball over their chances double to 67 percent. The Panthers have allowed opposing QBs to complete nearly 66 percent of their passes and the Panthers defense only has 3 INTs this year. Arizona should get a good game from Kurt Warner who is completing 70 percent of his passes for a better than 2 to 1 Pass TD to INT ratio. 

OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO

The Chargers defense finally had a good game last week vs the Chiefs and they should repeat that success vs the Raiders. For Oakland to upset San Diego they cannot turn the ball over. There is only an 11 percent chance of this happening, but in these cases the Raiders improve their chances from under 15 to 32 percent. If the Raiders defense can force at least 2 Chargers turnovers Oakland wins 44 percent. If Oakland not only is at least +2 in turnover margin but also run the ball for at least 140 yards Oakland actually has a 65 percent chance of winning. 

DENVER @ BALTIMORE

The Broncos have impressively won close games while Baltimore has lost close games. For Baltimore to win they need to be able to run against the top rated Broncos run defense. If Ray Rice has at least 75 rushing yards the Ravens chances increase to 70 percent, but if he is held under 75 the Ravens win just 41 percent. Turnovers are also a major key. Kyle Orton only has 1 INT this year. If Orton throws no interceptions the Broncos are favorites with a 57 percent chance. If Orton throws 1 or more INTs the Ravens are favored by 63 percent.

ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS

The Saints offense is spectacular and there is a 45 percent chance that the team racks up over 450 offensive yards. If the Falcons can hold the Saints to under 350 yards their chances increase to 35 percent. If Atlanta can also get Michael Turner going with at least 85 rushing yards the Falcons have a 53 percent chance. However, if Turner struggles with under 85 yards and cannot keep the Saints offense off the field Atlanta only has a 10 percent chance as Drew Brees averages nearly 300 yards and over 2 TDs per simulation.