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NFL Week 11 analysis

A look at Week 11 around the NFL.

A look at Week 11 around the NFL:

CLEVELAND @ DETROIT

If Matthew Stafford can limit turnovers the Lions are favored. When he has 1 or more INTs the Lions are 43 percent underdogs, but when he has no interceptions the Lions are heavy 67 percent favorites. The Browns need to be able to run the ball well. If Jamal Lewis has at least 75 rushing yards the Browns are solid 70 percent favorites. On the flip side, if Kevin Smith can run for 75+ yards while Matthew Stafford passes for 200+ yards the Lions are heavy 75 percent favorites.

BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE

Last week Chris Johnson was projected for over 140 rushing yards against the Bills and this week Maurice Jones-Drew is expected to feast on the Bills run defense. MJD has a 55 percent chance of rushing for 100+ yards and at least 1 TD and if he does this the Jags have an 85 percent chance of winning. For Buffalo to pull off the upset they need to limit him to no more than 75 yards and no more than 1 rushing TD. The Bills have a 60 percent chance if they can keep MJD from having a huge game.

PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY

The Steelers offense only had 256 yards in their loss to the Bengals. However, the Chiefs are in the bottom 8 in run defense and in the bottom 10 in passing defense. There is only a 12 percent chance that the Chiefs can hold the Steelers offense to under 300 yards. If they can do this the Chiefs have a 35 percent chance (+20 percentage point improvement), but to pull off the upset the Chiefs will also need Jamal Charles to have at least 3 explosive runs and a 5.0 ypc average. If he can do this and the Chiefs allow under 300 yards Kansas City is a 53 percent favorite.

INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE

The Ravens secondary is one of the worse in the league and while the team is fairly good at limiting teams to field goals in the Red Zone, Peyton Manning is expected to pick the defense apart. There is a 66 percent chance that Manning has at least 2 passing TDs and he is averaging 290 yards per simulation. The Ravens need to limit Manning to no more than 1 TD and Ray Rice needs to have a huge game with at least 125 rushing and receiving yards. If Rice can dominate and the Ravens can keep Manning to just 1 TD they are 74 percent favorites.

ATLANTA @ NEW YORK

The simulations are assuming Michael Turner is out for this game. With Turner the Falcons had a decent 41 percent chance but without Turner this drops to just 33 percent. Great QBs this year have been able to torch the Giants pass defense, but Matt Ryan has not been great this year with a rating under 80. In simulations his rating is just 77 with a 65 percent chance of throwing at least one INT. The Falcons only have a 25 percent chance of winning in this scenario. If Ryan throws no picks with at least 1 TD and the Falcons holds the Giants to under 4.3 yards per carry Atlanta can upset the Giants winning 59 percent in this scenario.

SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY

The 49ers defense only has 17 sacks in 9 games and for the first time all season Aaron Rodgers is getting sacked less in simulations than his counterpart. Rodgers is sacked 2.8 times per sim and Rodgers 3.0 times. If Rodgers is sacked less than 3 times the Packers have an 80 percent chance of winning with a 1.75 to 0.5 TD to INT ratio. If Rodgers is sacked 4+ times and the 49ers hold the Packers to less than 90 rushing yards the 49ers can upset Green Bay with a 50 percent chance of winning if the SF defense steps up big.

SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA

The Vikings have 34 sacks in 9 games and are sacking Matt Hasselbeck 3.5 times per simulation. Seattle is a heavy underdog and their only chance of upsetting Minnesota is by protecting Hasselbeck and winning the turnover margin battle by at least 2. If Hasselbeck is sacked no more than twice and Seattle commits 2 fewer turnovers than the Vikings, Seattle is the 52 percent favorite. However, if Adrian Peterson explodes for over 130 yards and 1 TD rushing the Seahawks have no chance with Minnesota winning 95 percent of simulations when Peterson explodes.

WASHINGTON @ DALLAS

The Cowboys offense took a week off vs Green Bay but they should be much better this week. There is a 62 percent chance that Dallas has at least 350 offensive yards and Dallas has an 83 percent chance of winning if the offense performs as expected. If Washington holds Dallas to under 80 rushing yards the Redskins are just 42 percent underdogs. If Washington can rush for 80+ yards while holding the Cowboys to under 80 Washington is actually the 65 percent favorite. Both QBs are averaging under 1 INT per simulation and there are not expected to be many turnovers in the game. If Dallas commits no more than 1 turnover and Tony Romo has no interceptions the Cowboys are heavy 89 percent favorites.

NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY

The Saints secondary is battered by injury and Josh Freeman does have a 33 percent chance of passing for 2 or more TDs. If Freeman can pass for 2+TDs without throwing more than 1 INT the Bucs significantly improve their chances from 20 to 42 percent. If Tampa Bay can also intercept Drew Brees at least once then Tampa Bay has a 50 percent chance. However, if the Saints commit no more than 1 turnover and the Saints RBs average over 5 yards per carry then the Saints are 20 point favorites with a 93 percent chance of winning.

ARIZONA @ SAINT LOUIS

Kurt Warner is expected to torch his old team with a projected stat line of 295 yards, 2 TDs and a 70 percent completion percentage. The key to the Rams upsetting Arizona is Steven Jackson dominating the Cardinals run defense. When Jackson runs for 75+ yards and 1+ TDs the Rams close the gap to just a 40 percent underdog. If the Rams also force 2 Cardinals turnovers while committing no more than once the Rams are 60 percent favorites. However, if Jackson cannot dominate and averages under 4.0 ypc the Rams have just a 15 percent chance.

NEW YORK @ NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots may have lost to the Colts but they were extremely impressive in the process. The Jets defense started off the season well, but in this game look for Tom Brady to play great with a passer rating around 100. Mark Sanchez only has a rating of 66 and for the Jets to pull off the upset they will need him to commit zero turnovers. If the Jets have no turnvers their chances more than double to 37 percent. If Thomas Jones can also run for 75+ yards and 1+TD the Jets have a 55 percent chance of winning. But if Sanchez throws 2+ INTs the Jets have no real chance winning just 5 percent of this scenario.

CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND

The hot Bengals should cruise to another victory as they have an over 50 percent chance of winning by double digits. The Bengals defense held the Steelers to well under 300 yards and there is a 54 percent chance they hold the Raiders under 250 total yards and to 10 points or less. The Raiders need to somehow have a big game running the ball with a 5.5+ yards per carry. They also need to force at least 2 Bengals turnovers. If they do both then they inch ahead with a 51 percent chance of winning.

SAN DIEGO @ DENVER

Kyle Orton is slated to play and it is a good thing he is as a Chris Simms led Broncos only had a 30 percent chance. The Chargers got a good game from LaDainian Tomlinson last week. The Broncos run defense has been increasingly vulnerable in recent weeks. If LT averages over 4 yards per carry and Philip Rivers throws no more than 1 INT the Broncos are solid 70 percent favorites. However, if LT is held under 4 ypc and the Chargers pass rush does not get good pressure on Orton and he is sacked no more than twice it is the Broncos who are favored at 53 percent.

PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO

Jay Cutler is on pace for over 30 interceptions and there is a high 47 percent chance that he throws 2+ INTs against the Eagles defense who have the 3rd most interceptions in the league. If Cutler struggles with 2+ INTs the Bears have just a 24 percent chance. If Cutler throws no INTs the Bears have a 64 percent chance of winning. Matt Forte has not had a good year running the ball and the Eagles are struggling as well. If Matt Forte can rush for at least 50 yards the Bears have a 51 percent chance of winning, but if he averages 3.5 ypc or less, something he has done 6 times this season, then the Bears have just a 26 percent chance.

TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON

The Texans defense has allowed 4.7 yards per carry which is tied for 29th best in the league. Chris Johnson is projected for another huge game with 120+ yards for the 2nd straight week. When Johnson has 100+ yards the Titans are the 57 percent favorite, but if Houston can hold him to under 100 the Titans only have a 22 percent chance. Matt Schaub is projected for a big game with 280 yards and 2 TDs. If Schaub has 2+ TDs without throwing a pick the Texans are solid 80 percent favorites.