Accuscore NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Predictions

Kurt Warner was phenomenal vs the Packers and did not throw an INT against the Packers who led the league in interceptions. The Saints defense was 3rd in INTs. In simulations Warner is averaging 1 INTs per simulation and the Cardinals are winning 29 percent of simulations. If Warner throws no INTs the Cardinals chances improve to 44 percent. If Arizona can intercept Drew Brees at least once while Warner has no INTs, this ends up as a dead-even 50-50 game. If Drew Brees completes over 65 percent of his passes, has 2+ TDs and no more than 1 INT then the Saints should win by double digits with a projected score of Saints 38, Cardinals 27 and the Saints win 78 percent of the time.

The Ravens need to have a repeat performance of the Patriots game to upset the Colts. They need to intercept Peyton Manning at least once and get another monster performance from the trio of Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain. When the Ravens rush for over 150 yards and intercept Peyton Manning at least once they actually have a 75 percent chance to win. However, if Manning picks apart the Ravens secondary with a pair of TDs and Ray Rice is held to under 100 rushing yards then the Colts are the heavy 80 percent favorite winning by double digits. Joe Flacco threw a costly interception to lose the Ravens game vs the Colts in Week 11. If Flacco throws no INTs the Ravens have a 56 percent chance of winning, but if he struggles with the Colts pass rush who sacks him 3+ times and he throws 1+ INTs the Ravens have just a 23 percent chance.

While both teams feature dynamic RBs both run defenses are playing very well in simulations. Adrian Peterson only has a 39 percent of rushing for over 75 yards but if he does the the Vikings are heavy 77 percent favorites. Felix Jones and Marion Barber only have a 38 percent chance of rushing for 80+ yards, but if they do then Dallas is the 75 percent favorite. The QB match-up is extremely close as well with Tony Romo and Brett Favre projected for 250+ yards and 2 TDs. The game could come down to which defense rushes the passer more effectively. When Dallas sacks Favre 4 or more times the Cowboys improve their chances from 41 to 58 percent. When the Vikings sack Romo 4+ times Minnesota is the 76 percent favorite.

There is a 42 percent chance that Mark Sanchez has another game without an interception. If Sanchez has no INTs the Jets improve their chances from 31 to 44 percent. If Sanchez throws no INTs and Darrelle Revis can shut down Vincent Jackson and hold him to under 30 yards and no TDs the Jets pull even with a 50 percent chance of winning. San Diego will look to stop Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene from having big games. They are averaging a combined 125 yards rushing. If they are held to under this total then San Diego is a heavy 84 percent favorite, but if the Jets RBs rush for over 140 yards then NY is the 52 percent favorite.


WEEK 19   UPDATED Monday, January 11, 2010
300116011 BAL 43.3% 22.0 IND 56.7% 24.3
300116018 ARI 28.8% 26.2 NO 71.2% 34.2
300117010 NYJ 31.4% 19.7 SD 68.6% 26.2
300117016 DAL 40.6% 24.1 MIN 59.4% 26.9
*SCORE:  Average points scored by each team in 10,000 simulations