Thursday, April 17, 2014
Inquirer Daily News

Accuscore MLB Playoff Shifts: Week 14

The Phillies managed to recover from their losses to Atlanta with a crucial 4 game sweep of the Reds.

Accuscore MLB Playoff Shifts: Week 14

By Stephen Oh
Accuscore.com

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The San Francisco Giants were 6-1 and the reason why the picked up 21.5 percentage points was they won these games all on the road. The Rockies were close behind after a stellar 5-1 week which included taking 2 of 3 from league leader San Diego. With the Dodgers also having a winning week the Padres were the big loser in the division dropping from having a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs to 38 percent. The Padres may be leading the NL West at the All-Star break but the Dodgers have the best chance of winning the division at 50.1 percent. The Dodgers have dominated their division going 23-6 and if this continues they will take the top spot. But the Rockies, Padres and Giants all have a decent chance of making the playoffs.

The Braves had a tough road schedule at Philadelphia and at the Mets, but they still managed to go 4-2 and pick up 18 percent in the playoff race. The Phillies managed to recover from their losses to Atlanta with a crucial 4 game sweep of the Reds. The Mets meanwhile did not recover from the losses to Atlanta and the +18 that Atlanta picked up came at the expense of the Mets who lost -18.7 percent.

The warning that AccuScore has made for the past month for the Reds was that when they started playing more road games their division lead could slip. The week started great taking 2 of 3 vs the Mets, but the awful sweep in Philadelphia which included an extra inning loss, blowing a 6 run lead in the 9th and two shutouts has dropped them to having just a 1 game lead in the NL Central. Saint Louis was just 2-4 but managed to drop ‘just’ 8.7 points thanks to the Reds tough series. The Cardinals still have 4 more home games than road games this year and the Reds 2 more road games than home games. This advantage should be enough for St. Louis to finish with a 1 game lead at the end of the year. Regardless of who wins the division, both the Cardinals and Reds have a better chance of getting the Wild Card than any other non-division leader in the NL.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEEK 14 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

5-Jul

12-Jul

% DIFF

WIN DIV

San Francisco Giants

3.7%

25.2%

21.5%

12.2%

Atlanta Braves

40.7%

58.8%

18.1%

51.4%

Colorado Rockies

24.0%

34.4%

10.4%

17.5%

Florida Marlins

9.6%

13.2%

3.6%

9.9%

Philadelphia Phillies

28.7%

32.2%

3.5%

23.5%

Los Angeles Dodgers

65.3%

67.2%

1.9%

50.1%

Chicago Cubs

0.3%

0.6%

0.3%

0.5%

Arizona Diamondbacks

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Houston Astros

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Milwaukee Brewers

0.6%

0.2%

-0.4%

0.2%

Washington Nationals

3.5%

1.6%

-1.9%

1.2%

St. Louis Cardinals

76.0%

67.3%

-8.7%

63.3%

San Diego Padres

48.4%

38.3%

-10.1%

20.2%

New York Mets

37.4%

18.7%

-18.7%

14.0%

Cincinnati Reds

61.6%

42.3%

-19.3%

35.9%

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Things could not have gone much better for the White Sox after their 7-0 week resulted in their picking up nearly 25 percentage points to lead the AL Central at a 38.5 percent chance of winning the division. The Tigers went 5-1 which ordinarily would have helped them pick up 5 to 10 percentage points but with the White Sox playing so well the Tigers actually dropped -7.7 points. The Twins were 2-4 and not surprisingly they plummeted over 16 percentage points.

Of course the team that really nosedived this week was the Boston Red Sox who saw their playoff chances cut in half after their main competition, Tampa Bay and New York, both went 6-1. The Rays picked up +18 points which was much more than the 7.4 points the Yankees gained. The Rays picked up considerably more ground because they swept Boston while the Yankees ‘only’ beat the A’s and Seattle 5 out of 6. Based on the current AccuScore forecast the Yankees are finishing with 99 or 100 wins and a 5 game lead over Tampa Bay by the end of the season.

The Texas Rangers somehow were swept by the Baltimore Orioles at home. They were just 2-5, but somehow they have picked up 8.5 points. Even though Cliff Lee lost his debut to Baltimore, the stats clearly indicate that Lee will help Texas win as many as 4 more games than they would have without hm and he doubled their chances of getting to the World Series. The Rangers also benefited from the rest of the division going a combined 4-16. When the rest of your division wins 20% of their games and you win 27% you actually had a solid week.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

WEEK 14 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

5-Jul

12-Jul

% DIFF

WIN DIV

Chicago White Sox

16.2%

41.0%

24.8%

38.5%

Tampa Bay Rays

53.9%

72.2%

18.3%

18.1%

Texas Rangers

89.6%

98.1%

8.5%

98.1%

New York Yankees

87.8%

95.2%

7.4%

78.0%

Baltimore Orioles

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Cleveland Indians

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Kansas City Royals

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Toronto Blue Jays

0.7%

0.5%

-0.2%

0.0%

Seattle Mariners

0.7%

0.0%

-0.7%

0.0%

Oakland Athletics

2.5%

1.2%

-1.3%

1.1%

Los Angeles Angels

8.5%

0.9%

-7.6%

0.8%

Detroit Tigers

39.4%

31.7%

-7.7%

29.0%

Minnesota Twins

51.2%

34.7%

-16.5%

32.5%

Boston Red Sox

49.5%

24.5%

-25.0%

3.9%

 

The Forecaster
About this blog
The definitive source for pregame sports information. The Forecaster is powered by AccuScore, the most comprehensive and accurate sports forecasting engine anywhere. It provides you with everything you need to know before the game. Reach The at ygreenbaum@philly.com.

The Forecaster
Latest Videos:
Also on Philly.com:
Stay Connected