Monday, March 30, 2015

Accuscore MLB Playoff Shifts: Week 13

The Phillies had a bad 2-5 week, and saw their playoff chances decrease by more than half.

Accuscore MLB Playoff Shifts: Week 13

By Stephen Oh
Accuscore.com

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Reds went 5-2 this week and managed to win 3 of 4 on the road vs the Cubs. Up to this point in the season the Reds have rode an imbalanced schedule with 11 more home games than road games to take the division lead. While taking 3 of 4 on the road is good regardless of the opponent, the Reds will have to show they can play .500 baseball vs good teams on the road if they expect to win the NL Central. Despite being 1.5 games back the Cardinals are still the favorite to win the Central at 60 percent to just under 40 for the Reds.

The Dodgers were 5-1 this past week and because it included a road sweep of rival San Francisco they saw their playoff chances jump over 20 percentage points. San Diego continues to have the best record in the NL after another solid 4-3 week, although three of the four wins were against lowly Houston, and they did drop two of three at home to Colorado. Despite their having the best record in the NL AccuScore continues to demonstrate a lack of faith in their ability to sustain this great performance during the second half of the season giving the Padres just a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs despite their great success to date.

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The Phillies had a bad 2-5 week and saw their playoff chances decrease by more than half. They dropped 2 of 3 to the Reds, one of their main potential Wild Card competitors and dropped 2 of 3 to lowly Pittsburgh. Of course ordinarily a 2-5 week would not result in a -35 percentage point drop, but when you combine it with the negative impact from the injuries to Chase Utley and Placido Polanco you see why Philadelphia is in serious trouble. Right now the Braves and Mets are neck and neck for the projected division lead with the Braves finishing 1 game up on the Mets by year end on average.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEEK 13 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

28-Jun

5-Jul

% DIFF

WIN DIV

Cincinnati Reds

40.5%

61.6%

21.1%

39.2%

Los Angeles Dodgers

45.0%

65.3%

20.3%

52.6%

Atlanta Braves

31.2%

40.7%

9.5%

34.6%

San Diego Padres

41.5%

48.4%

6.9%

32.0%

New York Mets

35.4%

37.4%

2.0%

31.7%

Florida Marlins

8.7%

9.6%

0.9%

7.7%

Washington Nationals

2.8%

3.5%

0.7%

2.7%

Houston Astros

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks

0.2%

0.0%

-0.2%

0.0%

Chicago Cubs

1.2%

0.3%

-0.9%

0.1%

Milwaukee Brewers

2.7%

0.6%

-2.1%

0.3%

Colorado Rockies

28.9%

24.0%

-4.9%

13.6%

St. Louis Cardinals

82.1%

76.0%

-6.1%

60.4%

San Francisco Giants

16.2%

3.7%

-12.5%

1.8%

Philadelphia Phillies

63.6%

28.7%

-34.9%

23.3%

AMERICAN LEAGUE

The Tampa Bay Rays may have been fighting in the dugout a week ago, but Week 13 saw them go 4-2 against key playoff competitors in Boston and Minnesota. By beating playoff competition on the road the Rays improved their playoff chances by over 13 percentage points. They are the only American League team to see a significant improvement in their playoff chances this week. The Rays are only 2 games behind the Yankees but AccuScore simulations still strongly favor the Yankees to win the AL East at 65 percent to Tampa Bay’s 19 percent and Boston’s 16 percent. Interestingly, the Rays’ poor home record is the cause for concern.

The Rangers were just 2-4 this week and their playoff chances did dip more than 5 percentage points but by splitting a pair of games vs the Angels on the road, they were able to minimize the damage that a 2-4 week can have. In simulations the Rangers are finishing with slightly fewer wins than both Tampa Bay and Boston, but their chances of making the playoffs are much higher. The Angels are just 3.5 games back of Texas, but the Rangers are expected to increase this gap to 7+ games by the end of the season. The reason why the Angels are only making the playoffs in 8.5% of simulations is their remaining home schedule includes Tampa Bay, Boston and 2 series with the Rangers. Of course if LA can take 5 of 7 from Texas in their games after the All-Star break (last two weekends in July) they can quickly close the gap. Anything worse than going 4-3 could give Texas a very comfortable cushion down the stretch.

The Twins, Tigers and White Sox all had mediocre weeks at 3-4, 3-3, and 3-3 respectively. The Twins dropped over 3 percentage points, but despite their poor play recently, AccuScore still favors the Twins to take the division at 48.6 percent. The Tigers have only played 7 games vs the AL East while Minnesota has played 21. When the Tigers start playing the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, AccuScore expects them to start falling behind Minnesota. Minnesota is also doing well in the Central with a 19-10 record and there is a good chance that by the end of the season the Twins will beat the White Sox and Tigers at a +.500 rate in head-to-head match-ups which will also help Minnesota separate.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

WEEK 13 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

28-Jun

5-Jul

% DIFF

WIN DIV

Tampa Bay Rays

40.8%

53.9%

13.1%

18.8%

Los Angeles Angels

5.4%

8.5%

3.1%

7.8%

Oakland Athletics

1.3%

2.5%

1.2%

2.4%

Seattle Mariners

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.6%

Baltimore Orioles

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Cleveland Indians

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Kansas City Royals

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Chicago White Sox

17.0%

16.2%

-0.8%

14.8%

Detroit Tigers

40.4%

39.4%

-1.0%

36.6%

Boston Red Sox

50.8%

49.5%

-1.3%

16.2%

New York Yankees

89.8%

87.8%

-2.0%

64.9%

Minnesota Twins

54.3%

51.2%

-3.1%

48.5%

Toronto Blue Jays

5.1%

0.7%

-4.4%

0.1%

Texas Rangers

95.0%

89.6%

-5.4%

89.3%

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