AccuScore NFC Week 9 Playoff Shifts
The Cowboys are playing to their full potential and are now in control of the NFC East with a 56 percent chance of winning the division.
By Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009-2010 Season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the 2009-2010 NFL Season after 9 weeks of play. visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated daily.
The Cowboys are playing to their full potential and are now in control of the NFC East with a 56 percent chance of winning the division. The Eagles lost at home and their playoff chances dropped 11 percentage points, but it is still strong at 59 percent thanks to the Giants continued slide. The Giants now just have a 36 percent chance of making the playoffs which is not only 3rd in their division, but is behind the Falcons and Packers.
Somehow the Packers still have a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs despite blowing a double digit second half lead to Tampa Bay. With the 49ers, Giants, and Bears all playing poorly Green Bay can still win 9 games and make the playoffs. Packers fans should hope the Cardinals continue to roll because they play at Arizona in Week 17. If Arizona's playoff position is determined by then the Packers could get to play a huge game against a team resting its starters. The Bears defense is getting picked apart by good QBs which is why the Packers are currently favored in their Week 14 re-match. This current edge is why Green Bay has such a substantial lead over Chicago in the playoff race. Minnesota has a 98 percent chance of winning the NFC North. They improved by +4 points despite being on a Bye because of the poor performances by the rest of the division.
The Cardinals quickly recovered from a bad home loss to Carolina with an impressive road win in Chicago. This win combined with the 49ers upset loss to Tennessee helped the Cardinals solidify their chances of repeating as NFC West champs to nearly 94 percent. The Seahawks and 49ers are both just 3-5 and both teams have under a 5 percent chance of catching Arizona. With just a one tenth of one percent chance of winning the division the Rams are close to mathematical elimination.
The undefeated Saints have a 97 percent chance of winning the NFC South. Atlanta only has a 3 percent chance of catching New Orleans, but they do have a very solid 67 percent chance of being a Wild Card team. Atlanta has the 5th best chance of making the playoffs in the NFC despite having just a 3 percent chance of winning the division. The final playoff spot could come down to the Week 11 Atlanta @ New York game. If the Falcons can upset the Giants they would get the big edge over a primary competitor for the final playoff spot.