By Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com

SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009-2010 Season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Here‘s AccuScore.com‘s analysis of the 2009-2010 NFL Season after 9 weeks of play. visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated daily.

The Bengals' impressive beat down of Baltimore helped them increase their chances by more than 30 percentage points while costing the Ravens over 30 percentage points. Just as important as the outcome of the game was the way the game played out. Cincinnati showed they are balanced team with no obvious flaws when they are playing well. The Ravens were hurt not just by the loss, but by the San Diego upset win. The Steelers lost to the Bengals earlier this season, but AccuScore favors them to ultimately win the division (79 percent).

Heading into their huge match-up with the Patriots the Colts have a 99.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans played well and even though they lost to a division rival their playoff chances only dipped 4 points because the Ravens lost and they are one of their main Wild Card competitors. The Texans are still significantly behind the Chargers and Bengals for the Wild Card spots with just a 19 percent chance of making the playoffs. It hurts the Texans that the Titans are showing signs of life and even though Tennessee will not make a run for the playoffs they definitely could beat plenty of teams, including a re-match with Houston.

The Patriots may have lost early to the Jets, but it looks like they will have at least a 3 game lead in the division by the end of the season and that loss will not impact their chances of winning the division which are currently over 90 percent. Currently, the Patriots are projected for 11 wins which is 3 fewer than the Colts at 14 wins. Obviously, if New England upsets the Colts their chances of catching the Colts improve significantly. The Dolphins and Jets are both averaging just under 8 wins for the season and both have just a 12-14 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Broncos are clinging to a slight lead in the division winning the AFC West 56.9 percent of the time to San Diego’s 43.1 percent. If San Diego beats Denver in Denver then they will take command. The Chargers saw their chances jump nearly 11 points thanks to an upset win over the Giants. It also helped that Baltimore lost. San Diego has a game lead on them in the Wild Card standings which is important given their head-to-head loss to the Ravens.