IS LEARNING THE PRINCETON OFFENSE
A look at Week 11 around the NFL:
CLEVELAND @ DETROIT
If Matthew Stafford can limit turnovers the Lions are favored. When he has 1 or more INTs the Lions are 43 percent underdogs, but when he has no interceptions the Lions are heavy 67 percent favorites. The Browns need to be able to run the ball well. If Jamal Lewis has at least 75 rushing yards the Browns are solid 70 percent favorites. On the flip side, if Kevin Smith can run for 75+ yards while Matthew Stafford passes for 200+ yards the Lions are heavy 75 percent favorites.
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago has been blitzed by two great QBs, Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner. They should do better against Alex Smith, but Smith does have a 49 percent chance of passing for 2 or more TDs and if he does the 49ers are the 56 percent favorite. Jay Cutler needs to limit turnovers. There is a 32 percent chance that he throws no interceptions and if can do this the Bears are 69 percent favorites. However, if Cutler throws 1 or more INTs the Bears are the 43 percent underdog. San Francisco needs to make sure Matt Forte does not have a big game. If Forte has under 75 rushing yards the 49ers are favored to win at 56 percent.
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY
Aaron Rodgers will need to withstand the Cowboys pass rush for Green Bay to win. He is getting sacked more than 4 times per simulation and if the Cowboys sack him 5+ times the Packers only have a 40 percent chance of winning. If Rodgers is sacked no more than 3 times the Packers are 70 percent favorites. The Packers also need to contain the Cowboys running game. If Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice average 5+ yards per carry the Cowboys are 69 percent favorites. The Packers secondary will need to get Tony Romo to throw at least 1 INT. If Romo does not throw an INT Dallas is the 62 percent favorite, but if Romo throws 1+ INT the Packers are the 63 percent favorite.
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE
The Bills have the #32 rated run defense and Chris Johnson is like to have a huge game. He has a 55 percent chance of rushing for 120+ yards and if he dominates the Titans are heavy 79 percent favorites. If the Bills can actually keep Johnson under 100 yards the Bills are the 62 percent favorite. The Bills need to get several big passing plays down field to pull off the upset. If the Bills get at least 2 passing TDs and 4 or more passing plays of 25+ yards the Bills have a 45 percent chance. If they also can average 4 ypc the Bills actually are the 52 percent favorite.
By Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009-2010 Season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Here‘s AccuScore.com‘s analysis of the 2009-2010 NFL Season after 9 weeks of play. visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated daily.
The Cowboys are playing to their full potential and are now in control of the NFC East with a 56 percent chance of winning the division. The Eagles lost at home and their playoff chances dropped 11 percentage points, but it is still strong at 59 percent thanks to the Giants continued slide. The Giants now just have a 36 percent chance of making the playoffs which is not only 3rd in their division, but is behind the Falcons and Packers.
By Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009-2010 Season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Here‘s AccuScore.com‘s analysis of the 2009-2010 NFL Season after 9 weeks of play. visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated daily.
The Bengals' impressive beat down of Baltimore helped them increase their chances by more than 30 percentage points while costing the Ravens over 30 percentage points. Just as important as the outcome of the game was the way the game played out. Cincinnati showed they are balanced team with no obvious flaws when they are playing well. The Ravens were hurt not just by the loss, but by the San Diego upset win. The Steelers lost to the Bengals earlier this season, but AccuScore favors them to ultimately win the division (79 percent).
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars do one thing well which is hand the ball off to Maurice Jones-Drew. The Chiefs are 26th defending the run and Jones-Drew has a 57 percent chance of rushing for at least 85 yards and 1 rushing TD. If MJD hits these levels the Jags are heavy 86 percent favorites. The Chiefs can upset Jacksonville if they hold MJD to under 100 rushing yards while also getting 80+ from Jamaal Charles, who should start over the suspended Larry Johnson. The Chiefs have a 70 percent chance if Charles goes for 80+ yards and MJD is under 100 yards.
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI
The Bengals will look to once again have Cedric Benson run wild while getting clutch 3rd down conversions from Carson Palmer. If Benson averages 4.5 ypc (46 percent chance) and Palmer passes for at least 250 yards the Bengals are favored with a 55 percent chance. However, if the Ravens defense can repeat the success they had vs the Broncos and hold Benson to under 4 ypc while also interception Carson Palmer at least once the Ravens are 74 percent road favorites.
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS
The Texans cannot afford to have Steve Slaton fumble the ball and in simulations where Ryan Moats is featured the Texans win 19 percent vs just 15 percent when Slaton is the #1 RB. The Texans will need a huge game from Matt Schaub and the defense needs to harass Peyton Manning all game. If Schaub has a 2+ TDs, 0 INTs while the defense sacks Manning at least 3 times the Texans have a 50 percent chance of winning. However, if the Texans turn the ball over even once and Manning is sacked less than twice the Texans have just a 13 percent chance.
By Steven Oh
Accuscore.com
The Giants have gone from having an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs after Week 5 to just a 38 percent chance. Their drop-off is not just due to 3 straight losses, but also the way they lost. They are allowing a ton of points to good passing offenses. The Giants face the Chargers, Falcons, Cowboys, Eagles and Minnesota who are all teams that could put up 30+ against the defense. While the Giants fall, the Cowboys and Eagles both rise. The Eagles jumped over 26 percentage points by crushing the Giants and the Cowboys improved by 6 points with the opportunity to take the division lead by upsetting Philadelphia in Week 9.
Minnesota has a stranglehold on the NFC North and are now playing for the #1 Seed in the NFC. They are forecasted for 13 wins which is 2 more than 3rd place Philadelphia in the NFC, but still 1 behind the Saints. The Packers lost to Favre and the Vikings but still hold the big edge over Chicago for a possible Wild Card (61 to 26 percent) because they are 1-0 against Chicago and the Bears have the tougher remaining schedule. The Packers do not have to face the Vikings again while Chicago has 2 games against the Vikings, while also playing Arizona, Philadelphia, @ San Francisco and Baltimore. With just 2 ‘easy’ wins the rest of the year Chicago will be fortunate to win more than 4 of their remaining games.
By Steven Oh
Accuscore.com
The Ravens potentially saved their season with a huge win over the Broncos. They improved their playoff chances by over 20 percentage points not only because they beat a good team, but the defensive performance bodes well for them to play better the rest of the season. The Bengals were on a Bye week but dropped 18 points because the Ravens, Texans and Chargers all won and they are the Bengals’ primary playoff competitors. The Browns and Steelers chances are unchanged after Week 8. Cleveland continues to have zero percent chance.
By beating the Jets twice the Dolphins have slashed the Jets playoff chances by more than a third to just 13 percent. While the Dolphins win hurt the Jets it barely helped Miami who improved by just 2 points. The Dolphins are still just 3-4 and have a fairly tough remaining schedule that includes 2 Patriots games and the Steelers. The Dolphins can soar up the rankings if they shock the Patriots in Week 9 and beat them. Right now everything looks good for New England as they may be the only team in the division likely to finish above .500 and now have a nearly 90 percent chance of winning the division.
By Jonathan Lee
AccuScore Analyst
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates every MLB game one pitch at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game and winning the World Series. Here‘s AccuScore.com‘s analysis of the 2009 World Series between the Phillies and Yankees. Visit AccuScore.com for daily updates and all game forecasts updated daily.
Often times in the postseason, the two best teams don’t make it to the World Series. The vagaries of baseball and short series make it a bit random which teams reach the final round of the playoffs. That doesn’t appear to be the case this season with the Phillies dispatching the Dodgers in five, and the Yankees triumphing over the pesky Angels in six. By virtue of the American League winning the All-Star game, the Yankees will have homefield advantage. Game 1 is on Wednesday.
| Phillies vs. Yankees | Win Series | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 34% | 35% | 36% | 51% | 52% | 50% | 36% | 41% |
| New York Yankees | 66% | 65% | 64% | 49% | 48% | 50% | 64% | 59% |
NEW YORK @ PHILADELPHIA
The Giants are suddenly looking vulnerable after two losses to good NFC Teams. The Giants need Eli Manning to complete over 60 percent of his passes while also getting a solid 4.5+ ypc from the running game. If the Giants offense can hit these targets they are favored winning 55 percent of the simulations. However, if Eli Manning throws 1 or more INT and the RBs are held under 4.5 ypc the Eagles are the heavy 76 percent favorite. The Giants defense will look to pressure Donovan McNabb as much as possible. The Giants defense has a 50 percent chance of having at least 3 sacks and if they do the Giants are slight 51 percent favorites.
By Stephen Oh
Accuscore.com
The Packers not only won over the lowly Browns, their playoff chances (up over 25 percentage points) rose because of the Bears and Vikings losses. The Vikings only dropped -1.5 points because they lost a game they were expected to lose and they did have some good moments. The Bears, however, were blown out again due to a lack of a running game and Jay Cutler turnovers. These poor statistical performances negatively impact the Bears simulations for Week 8 through 17 and this is the reason why their playoff chances are down dramatically.
The Eagles and Cowboys both capitalized on the Giants struggles. The Eagles chances improved because they beat a division rival. The Cowboys chances improved because they beat a Wild Card competitor, in Atlanta. The Cowboys will likely find themselves in 2nd place to win the division next week behind whoever wins the Eagles-Giants game. This assumes their revived passing offense leads them to another win at home (vs Seattle).
