Boy, those TV meteorologists sure blew the winter forecast
Let's go back to the predictions they made last year.
Boy, those TV meteorologists sure blew the winter forecast
Michael Klein, Philly.com
Big hat-tip to the best regional weather site, Tom Thunstrom's Phillyweather.net, for archiving the season snow predictions that the TV weather people made last November.
Friday-Saturday's storm dumped 28.5 inches at Philadelphia International, which brought the season's total to 56.3 inches. And today's storm will likely top all-time seasonal snow records.
So as we can see, they blew it. And with another storm predicted for late Tuesday, it's only going to pile on.
The forecasts:
Kathy Orr on CBS 3 called for a season total of 26 to 33 inches.
Hurricane Schwartz on NBC10 predicted 18 to 24 inches all season.
Cecily Tynan and Accu-Weather on 6ABC called for a "snowier-than-average" season, with 30 inches in the city.
John Bolaris on Fox29 said 22.7 inches, as he averaged four El Nino winters.
Update: A few TV meteorologists -- not necessarily those mentioned above -- have contacted to quibble about this posting, saying it was "unfair." Of course, had they been right about their forecasts, they would have been the first to crow about it.
At least Punxsutawney Phil was right when he said winter was not over.
What a great story idea. Wherever did you get the idea?— PhillyWings
only off a foot or 2 or 3— primo- Looks like Accu Weather long range forcaster called it right.— Bruce Bell
- Looks like Accu Weather long range forcaster Joe Bastardi called it right.— Bruce Bell
- Looks like Accu Weather long range forcaster Joe Bastardi called it right.— Bruce Bell
- Does anyone really think they can make a forecast for a 3-4 month period? They can't even tell you how much snow we will get in 3 days!— PhillyCheesesteak
- Bolaris is probably a little gun shy to call for big snow.— fafafooey
- Rob Guarino called for 31 inches last Wednesday. Why won't any local station give a shot to the forecaster who not only is good, but explains the weather better than anyone else on local TV?— gakski
- The general public should do what meteorologists do - absorb all available information and make your own "guess" based on that. Watch all the local weathercasts, plus the Weather Channel, plus read the excellent phillyweather.net site, and form your own opinion. If EVERYONE fails at a forecast, well, what can you do? The reason something is called "historic" is because it's never happened before - that's a pretty hard thing to make a prediction for... As early as Wednesday night one of the computer models called for the potential of 36" in Delaware. Obviously if only one of eight computer models calls for something that extreme that far in advance, no one can go out on a limb and forecast that; they may only suggest the potential. A lot of local weatherpeople deserve some criticism, but they should also be cut more slack. How many prognosticators do YOU know that score 100%, nay, even 75% accuracy? Sports gamblers? Political media? Good luck...— Brian F.
- I would like to be a TV news weather-person. I could be wrong and still keep my job.— BMVILLA
- Pointless article. It is obvious that weather is impossible to predict— 93phils
- Many years ago I heard a "meteorologist" on TV say "We can tell you pretty much what kind of weather we will have tomorrow. After that, YOUR guess is as good as OURS!" How honest and how true, even with computers, Doppler radar, "expertise", etc.!— catharine_christian_carpenter
- I am saddened that Cecily Tynan no longer don's the spandex and struts on city line to show us how deep the drifts are.— MaMaMonkey
- I think you have to give these guys a break. They take big chances making those predictions. They have been pretty close on a day to day basis and really should get a slice of the kudos for the great preparedness of everyone for the snowstorm And why we were so prepared for the last one, in December. My street is dug out. It is business as usual. Just as long as nobody takes my parking space. To what ever degree of satisfaction to which you aspire, I say that on a day to day basis an,d with this storm as an example of good work under the gun, they prepare me for what is coming weather-wise. I follow the bowtie, he has been right enough for me.— OldSouthPhilly
- All you have to read is the Farmers Almanac. They said we would get a lot of snow this winter and, as usual, they were right.— jd924u
- Who cares? Kathy Orr is so adorable!— mmds
- The funny thing is, wait til winter is over. They will ll ignore the predictions. If they were right on, they would promo it like no tomorrow. Hurricane still might, he will probably think people dont remember and say how correct he was in predicting the winter. He will even tell you he had the temp. breakdown to the hour.— Pat c
- A pseudo gossip columnist slamming people who actually study science and engage in what they always say is an inexact field (but have the knowledge to understand WHY it's hard to predict with pinpoint percision)? Man, that's rich. Pathetic, but rich.— imhomerjay
