Why would the Phillies trade Vince Velasquez?
As rumors swirl about Vince Velasquez and the Texas Rangers with less than 60 hours until the trade deadline, here are some thoughts.
ATLANTA — As rumors swirl about Vince Velasquez and the Texas Rangers with less than 60 hours until the trade deadline, some thoughts:
1. Last week, Matt Klentak described his front office as being "value oriented," which is a fancy way of saying if the Phillies are approached with a deal that they perceived as improving the organization, they would consider it no matter whom it involved. At the same time, the first-year Phillies general manager said he had "didn't have any great desire to trade" his young, controllable players.
Vince Velasquez would fit that category; he is not eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season. He will make close to the major-league salary minimum in the next two seasons. The Phillies chose him as the centerpiece of the trade for another young, controllable player. In any trade of Velasquez, they would receive a few young, controllable players in return. (Young, controllable players is the official buzz phrase of trade deadline '16.)
The Phillies, under Andy MacPhail, have prioritized the proliferation of pitchers. Their strategy is to grow the arms and buy the bats later. So a trade of Velasquez, without knowing the exact return, would appear to counteract that. The Phillies have spent the last six months developing him; he has made strides in transforming from a thrower to a pitcher with Bob McClure's tutelage. If the Phillies swap him for a promising minor-league pitcher, that process begins anew and slows the rebuild.
But it could be worth it for the simple fact that...
2. The current pitching trade market is bonkers. The Padres dealt a rental (Andrew Cashner) and a 26-year-old righthander with a 4.81 ERA in 24 starts (Colin Rea) to Miami for a significant haul of young talent. The White Sox are holding firm on demands for Chris Sale, while Tampa Bay seeks a massive return for any of their many young starters.
The Phillies' demands would be no less for Velasquez, but it never hurts to see what he could fetch. It is a seller's market, for sure, and a "value-oriented" organization would seek to find an advantage in that. Pitchers get hurt. Life is fleeting. It is important to remember...
3. We have no idea how the Phillies value Velasquez. We can see his performance on the field, what the Phillies surrendered to acquire him, and the resources they have devoted to his development. But we do not know what the Phillies saw in his shoulder during an exchange of medical records last December, an exercise that warranted enough concern to reconfigure the package in return from Houston. It could be an abundance of caution. Perhaps Texas' doctors will see the same examinations and make different determinations than the Phillies did. Maybe not.
The industry has always been divided on Velasquez's future. No matter how long he stays in a rotation, there will be talent evaluators who see him as a hard-throwing closer in the future. They cite his injury history, his attitude, and his repetoire. Perhaps the Phillies agree, and they see Velasquez's value at its peak right now.
Say this: It is almost August and Velasquez is near 100 innings in the majors. That is already a win for the Phillies. He has exceeded expectations with his 3.32 ERA. He has been, at times, a dominating presence. Other nights, he cannot solve the test of facing a batting order for the third time. Such is the life of a developing starter in the majors. It is one reason why a trade with Texas does not quite compute because...
4. Velasquez won't be around for a pennant race at the end of September unless plans are altered. The Phillies will restrict Velasquez's innings; they used a minor biceps injury in May to institute a three-week break on the disabled list. Velasquez compiled 88 2/3 innings last season. He estimated earlier this year that an innings program could push him to 140 or 150 this season. His agent, Scott Boras, is an advocate for the restrictions.
That means, at best, Velasquez has approximately 50 innings left. So, about eight more starts. Or, maybe the Rangers have thoughts of shifting Velasquez to the bullpen in September to limit his innings and keep him in the mix, while still planning to use him as a starter in the future. He is, after all, under control for five more seasons after 2016.
Then the question is whether that lessens the package the Rangers would be willing to surrender for Velasquez. Other pitchers available via trade would be able to finish the season in the Texas rotation. The Phillies, just as they did in the Cole Hamels talks, would target the Rangers' top young talent. That includes...
5. Joey Gallo, a tantalizing slugger, especially if he were to play 81 games a year in Citizens Bank Park. Gallo, 22, has some of the best raw power in the minors. He does not have a set position; Gallo has played most at third base with some first base and left field added of late. His future could be at first base.
But if Gallo was untouchable in the Hamels negotiations last summer, why would he be a part of a Velasquez trade now? There are questions about Gallo's aptitude to hit big-league pitching. His first 41 games in the majors (.192/.287/.408) have done nothing to quell those concerns.
And, if Gallo were to be included, should he land a pitcher with a better health projection and higher-caliber profile? Again, Velasquez carries significant value because he will not reach free agency until after the 2021 season.
The Phillies are quite familiar with Texas' system after extensive scouting for the previous two summers. That could be an inherent advantage in pairing with the Rangers.
Or not. Rumors are rumors. This time of year generates more chatter than action. Still, it is fun to consider the ramifications of a Velasquez trade. If one does not happen now, the Phillies have at least gained a knowledge of how Velasquez is viewed by other teams, which could provide groundwork for a move later.