#OnDeck: What to expect from the outfields of the NL East
Mets
2014 outfield: Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson, Eric Young
2014 outfield stats: .245 BA, .687 OPS, 8.3 WAR, 2.9 dWAR
Projected 2015 outfield: Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson, Michael Cuddyer
Projected 2015 outfield WAR: 4.6
New addition Michael Cuddyer is expressing some of that classic pre-season confidence.
35-year-old Cuddyer is the Mets' highest profile acquisition so far this year, but certainly not one of their most exciting pieces. For those, you can turn to New York's very young, very fine rotation. The installation of Cuddyer into right field improves on the paltry offense provided from the role under Eric Young's campaign, but sacrifices the speed Young brought to the position. Cuddyer, appearing in only 49 games in 2014 for the Rockies, hit .332 with a .955 OPS; reasonably close to his numbers from the previous season (.331, .919), when he played in 130 games and made the NL All-Star team.
Lagares was a gem for the Mets last season, winning the team's first OF Gold Glove since Carlos Beltran and blowing his batting average up to .281 from .242 the previous year. Lagares is trending upward as a center fielder, a good spot to be in as the Mets decide where they stand on extending him - though he is getting his own bobblehead this July, so at least the PR department is ready to cash in.
Then, there's 33-year-old Curtis Granderson, set to make $16 million in 2015 after posting another season in .220-.230 BA range. He'll easily make more than his two outfield mates (Cuddyer will make $8.5 million, Lagares will make $506,636), but he may very well be the least productive. However, the Mets brought in Granderson's former hitting coach with the Yankees, Kevin Long, to try and work his magic as he once did when Granderson was a younger man in the Bronx. Long is quick to cast off any miraculous turnarounds, but the connection is tangible.
Nationals
2014 outfield: Bryce Harper, Denard Span, Jayson Werth
2014 outfield stats: .291 BA, .799 OPS, 9.2 WAR, -1.4 dWAR
Projected 2015 outfield: Same
Projected 2015 outfield WAR: 9.9
At first look, the Nationals outfield matches their team's general 2015 projection; they're the obvious number one choice in a field of mediocre-at-best competitors. Bryce Harper, the young phenom, Denard Span, the reliable speester, and Jayson Werth, the grizzled, powerful All-Star veteran.
But it doesn't take much nosing around to acknowledge that these are not outfielders at the beginnings of their journeys. Span is due for free agency, and preparations are already being made should he walk away. Washington seems all too eager to shame Harper, their huge star, which seems an odd practice with his own negotiations approaching at the end of 2016. Harper's style of play has led to more injuries in his young career than the Nationals would probably like, though on the other side of that coin, his occasional lack of hustle has also caused him trouble. The kid can't win. And Werth, who will turn 36 in May, is coming off an active offseason that included shoulder surgery, but promising he'll be ready opening day.
But let's not be ludicrous - they'll all likely be around this year, and could very well be the best outfield in the NL East. The Nationals don't have a lot of problems, so becoming curious about their near future is the closest thing we can find to a pressing issue. But compared to an outfield like Miami's - three young homegrown studs, on the verge (or in the middle) of breaking out, Washington carries more questions.
Marlins
2014 outfield: Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich
2014 outfield states: .279 BA, .807 OPS, 15.4 WAR, 4.6 dWAR
Projected 2015 outfield: Same
Projected 2015 outfield WAR: 12.2
Giancarlo Stanton's most obvious contributions come at the plate (His power inspires folk stories and lively debates), but the slugger's defense is nowhere close to ineffective. In fact, by the middle of last season, among right fielders' Defensive Runs Saved, he was second only to Jason Heyward (25) with 10. This was a comeback after his worst year in the statistic in 2013 with -7, and Stanton would finish the year at 7 DRS. Have I mentioned that Stanton is the oldest Marlins outfielder at 25?
2014 was only 24-year-old Ozuna's first full season, and already, his cannon is making an impact, some nights more than others. Hitting behind Stanton this year, he'll be knocking in both of his fellow outfielders (as well as Dee Gordon) plenty of times. As Miami's second power bat, his 23 home runs in 2014 were second only to - come on now - Stanton (37).
Marlins manager Mike Redmond wants Yelich, a 2014 Gold Glove winner at 22 years old, in the three-hole this season, just before Stanton. He excelled when forced into lead-off duty following an injury to Rafael Furcal last pre-season, hitting .284 with a .362 OBP and 70 walks in 144 games. All these guys have to do is keep doing what they're doing and this outfield will easily keep pace with the Nationals.
Braves
2014 outfield: Justin Upton, B.J. Upton, Jason Heyward
2014 outfield stats: .250 BA, .733 OPS, 10.2 WAR, 2.3 dWAR
Projected 2015 outfield: B.J. Upton, Nick Markakis, Jonny Gomes
Projected 2015 outfield WAR: 1.6
The Braves seemed to be initiating a rebuild by starting the offseason with the Jason Heyward trade. Heyward is not an easily replacable asset in right field, namely on defense. When Justin Upton went in a trade to the Padres weeks later, the Braves were shipping out their primary source of power. Evan Gattis, another power hitter, was sent to Houston later on.
So signing Nick Markakis through 2018 for $10.5 million per year is supposed to be a step in the next direction, but Markakis will be 35 when the deal is over and has already undergone a neck surgery this winter. He'll be taking over right field for Heyward, who saved 32 runs on defense last season, as opposed to Markakis' 1 DRS (though both won Gold Gloves in 2014). Offensively, their numbers were closer (Heyward's .271/.351/.384, Markakis' .276/.342/.386), but Markakis' role in a retooling Atlanta remains questionable.
That leaves B.J. Upton in center, who was once the hottest outfield free agent on the market, and after signing in Atlanta for 2012, has been a source of constant disappointment. Upton will be paid $14.45 million in 2015, his salary increasing by another annual $1 million increment. The Braves have him and his sub-.200 BA/sub-.600 OPS as a Brave locked up through 2017. Lucky them.
The final spot could be filled by a variety of names - Zoilo Almonte, Todd Cunningham, Joey Terdoslavich, and Jose Constanza have all been mentioned, but now Jonny Gomes, Atlanta's most recent acquisition, is a frontrunner for the last outfield spot. Gomes is a 34-year-old utility piece whose offensive ceiling is in the mid-.260s and is probably best known for getting dirt on his uniform. He'll likely find a role facing left-handed pitchers, against whom he's hit .277/.376/.485 over his 12-year career.
Phillies
2014 outfield: Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, Marlon Byrd
2014 outfield stats: .271 BA, .696 OPS, 2.5 WAR, -2.8 dWAR
Projected 2015 outfield: Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, TBD
Projected 2015 outfield WAR: 1.2 (w/o TBD)
Not a lot to say on this one. Right now, the Phillies' projected right fielder is Darin Ruf, and given the highly experimental phase the Phillies are in right now, it doesn't really matter, as long as they're giving younger guys playing time to figure out how they do or do not fit into the future.
Revere and Brown, the two likely thirds of the outfield already set, both signed one-year deals, indicating the very tentative nature of being a Philadelphia Phillie at present. Brown is coming off a year in which he failed to spring board from the limited momentum of his 2013 campaign, and effectively got worse. His defense appeared absent at times, his BA dropped 37 points and his OPS plummeted from .818 to .634. He's gone from a stalled prospect to an explosive new slugger to standing quietly in the background. But Brown is still 27, and while his identity as a ball player remains mysterious, the Phillies are in a position to see if he can get it together, again.
Revere is another anomaly, patching over holes in his game with seemingly unsustainable extremities. He's a skilled base stealer, but doesn't draw walks; he does, however, hit lots of singles, somehow in the mix for the NL batting title last season. He can track down fly balls in center with his frantic speed, but is often compensating after taking a poor route (Revere, for all his speed, had the worst dWAR on the team at -2.2, except for Ryan Howard's -2.4) and has an arm that doesn't scare opposing third base coaches.
The Phillies will eventually need to find outfielders who can play reliable defense, but concentrated on giving themselves depth at the position by signing a few names this offseason. At any point, Darin Ruf, Cesar Hernandez, Grady Sizemore, Jeff Francoeur, Jordan Danks, and even Aaron Altherr and Kelly Dugan could see time in the Phillies' outfield. If those names look especially discouraging next to the Nationals and Marlins, just remember this is a rebuild and the Phillies are still very, very close to the beginning.