On Cole Hamels, Anthony Gose, and the opiate of front offices

Anybody who was paying close enough attention during the 2014 season has to agree with USA Today reporter Bob Nightengale's conclusion that Cole Hamels would welcome a trade away from the doldrums that have infected Citizens Bank Park over the last few years. The most telling sign came in early July, when the list of teams Hamels left unblocked on his no-trade clause surfaced from out of the ether.

The list of seven teams included six big market clubs who could reasonably be presumed to have both the willingness to trade for starting pitching and the financial flexibility to accommodate a contract of Hamels' size. The eighth was the Padres, who play in his hometown of San Diego. It didn't take much of a leap to think that Hamels was making it as easy as he could for the Phillies to trade him. Everything about the lefty's body language jibed with such thinking. After a couple of outings in which he pitched well but was left with a loss, he conspicuously declined to talk to the media. Again, it doesn't take much of a leap to think that he did so because he knew he wouldn't be able to muster a convincing amount of ambivalence to the media about his feelings about the state of the team.

So, yes, it doesn't take much deduction to conclude that Hamels would welcome a trade. At the same time, over the course of his career, Hamels has had a highly-publicized education in the pros and cons of speaking one's true feelings in a market like Philadelphia. And in a situation like this, there aren't many pros when it comes to acknowledging to a fan base that one would rather be pitching in front of a different fan base next season. Even if the Phillies fan base would beg him to take them with him.

Coincidentally, a trade occurred yesterday that should reinforce the Phillies' belief that a trade of Hamels is unlikely to be a silver bullet capable of slaying the beastly rebuilding process that they currently confront. The Blue Jays officially gave up on Anthony Gose, trading him to the Tigers for second baseman Devon Travis, who was rated as the No. 84 prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2014. Travis hit .298/.358/.460 with 10 home runs and 16 stolen bases at Double-A Erie last season, so Toronto got some value for him. But the fact of the matter is that Gose has yet to pay any dividends for either of the teams who acquired him in conjunction with the trade that helped the Phillies acquire Roy Oswalt in 2010. In 616 big league plate appearances, the 24-year-old Gose has a Galvisian .633 OPS. Brett Wallace, whom the Astros acquired for Gose in sending him to the Blue Jays, has a .704 OPS in 1,077 PAs and spent all of last season in the minors. Jonathan Villar, whom the Phillies also traded away for Oswalt, has a .629 OPS in 530 big league plate appearances.

The most valuable player in the Oswalt trade has been J.A. Happ, who has started 109 games in five-and-a-half seasons for the Astros and Braves. In fact, Happ has been more productive than any of the prospects the Phillies traded away in deals for Oswalt, Roy Halladay, and Hunter Pence, with the possible exception of Jarred Cosart, who has a 3.26 ERA in 40 starts despite a meager strikeouts and walk rates (5.5 and 4.0 per nine innings). Jonathan Singleton posted a .620 OPS in 362 PAs as a rookie last season. Domingo Santana went 0-for-17 in a brief stint in the majors before returning to the minors.

If religion is the opiate of the masses, then prospects are the opiate of front offices, and fan bases, and anybody else who yearns to believe in a greater baseball tomorrow. Make no mistake: the Phillies have little choice but to invest in this opiate, with the hope that they will stumble upon a decent batch. But history suggests that they will need to acquire plenty if they hope for one or two to pan out. That's why the Phillies need to entertain offers for every player on their roster, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz included (in fact, Utley is probably the Phillies second most valuable asset behind Hamels, but with a shelf life that has been ticking for quite some time). It's why hitting rock bottom is often the quickest way to rebuild. The pitiful rate of return on prospects means a team has to cash in all of its chips in order to maximize its odds of striking gold.

As for Hamels, it is worth mentioning that a trade for one or two or three of the Cubs' bonanza of prospects is currently viewed by some folks to be the golden ticket aboard the Rebuilding Express. And it is worth mentioning the last time we heard such talk, back in 2012, before Hamels' signed his contract extension, when the Rangers were viewed the way the Cubs are viewed today. The golden ticket back then was Texas' corner infield prospect, a kid named Mike Olt. He was a consensus Top 10 prospect. He had the ability to reach base. He had the ability to hit for power. Today, he has a .582 OPS and 113 strikeouts in 298 major league plate appearances. And a spot on the Cubs' bench.