Mets and Tigers could push Phillies for Yasmany Tomas

The only thing wrong with the logic that says the Phillies will end up signing Yasmany Tomas because they have a desperate need for him and the financial wherewithall to pay him whatever he wants is that the Phillies had an equally desperate need for his countryman, Rusney Castillo, and did not end up landing him (he signed with the Red Sox for seven years and $72.5 million).

To be clear: the Phillies will make a strong push for Tomas, and the Ruben Amaro Jr. World Tour 2014 suggests that the general manager views this year's international market as a potential get-out-of-jail free card for the organization's inability to develop the next wave of talent via their drafting and development. But Tomas is not an item on a grocery store shelf who can be had by anybody willing to pay the price listed on his tag. Only one team can sign him, and the Phillies are hardly the only one with a need for power and a robust cash flow.

1) The Phillies have all of the financial flexibility they will need to sign Tomas.

At the moment, the Phillies only have three obvious roster vacancies: two bench spots and a rotation spot. The other 22 projected members of the Opening Day roster will combine to earn in the neighborhood of $148.5 million, including projected arbitration salaries for Ben Revere and Domonic Brown. If the Phillies were planning on carrying each of those 22 players, they would have somewhere in the neighborhood of $31 million to spend before reaching the $189 million luxury tax threshold ($148.5 million in player salaries, and an estimated $10 million towards player benefits, a figure that counts against the threshold).

Their financial picture is not a bad one: certainly, it is conducive to signing a player like Yasmani Tomas, whom many expect to require a deal north of $100 million (myself included). The only players under contract for 2016 are Ryan Howard ($25 million) and Cole Hamels ($22.5 million), and Howard gets a $10 million buyout in 2017, leaving Hamels the only veteran under contract (although Chase Utley has a series of vesting options in his deal that could keep him around).

In short, the post-2015 Phillies are very much a blank slate.

2) Tomas could accelerate the rebuilding process

If Tomas lives up to expectations, he could give the Phillies a huge head start on the rebuilding process, allowing them to skip the process of scouting a developing a new middle of the order power bat to replace Howard. And if Maikel Franco can live up to some scouts projections' of an Edward Encarnacion type, then the Phillies suddenly would have a lineup that could be massaged into an above average unit using the assets typically available on each year's free agent market.

Of course, those are two big ifs. Franco just turned 22 years old and is coming off a September in which he went 10-for-56 with two extra base hits (both doubles), 13 strikeouts and one walk in 58 plate appearances. Tomas just turns 24 on Nov. 14.

3) Signing Tomas could cost in excess of $105 million over seven years

Earlier this year, Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo signed with the Red Sox for seven years and $72.5 million. Everything I've seen and heard suggests that the bidding for Tomas should start around $15 million per year. A seven year deal seems like a logical length, which would enable Castillo to sign another big contract starting with his 30-year-old season. Perhaps his camp pushes for a player opt-out after year five, which would enhance his ability to maximize his career earnings. Regardless, a safe estimate has the commitment required to land Castillo at somewhere around seven years and $105 million. That's a lot of cheese for a kid who has never faced major league pitching, but teams are swimming in cash right now with nowhere to spend it. If 37-year-old Victor Martinez is going to be looking for a three-year, $45 million contract, is seven years and $105 million for a 23-year-old that much more of a risk?

4) Watch out for the Mets.

The Phillies might be the team most desperate for Tomas, but there are plenty of other big market clubs for whom Tomas could make a more immediate impact. Consider the Tigers, who reportedly made a strong play for Castillo. Or the Rangers, who have right-handed power bat Adrian Beltre under contract for just two more seasons, and an immediate opening in their outfield, where Alex Rios will not return. The Tigers are desperate for some corner power. The Yankees straits aren't whole lot less dire than the Phillies, and they have a surprising amount of financial flexibility in the mid-to-long term future, with Derek Jeter no longer eating up $12 million, Mark Teixerbia's $23.125 million salary off the books after 2016, and Alex Rodriguez monstrosity of a contract off the books after 2017. Per MLBDepthCharts, their payroll commitments fall from $169 million in 2016 to $99 million in 2017 to $71 million in 2018 and $45 million in 2019. The Yankees don't strike me as an organization who would allow the presence of Carlos Beltran in 2015 to prevent them from signing a guy they covet. That being said, starting pitching is their greatest immediate need.

To me, though, the two most intriguing teams in the league are the Mets and the Cubs, both of whom are a couple of productive free agent signings away from legitimate contender status. The Cubs have an opening in the outfield, where they could pair Tomas with fellow Cuban Jorge Soler at the corners and create a lineup with a ridiculous amount of potential (Javier Baez-Anthony Rizzo-Yasmany Tomas-Jorge Soler-Starlin Castro-Luis Valbuena, for starters).

The Mets, meanwhile, could be just as desperate as the Phillies for a hitter of Tomas' ilk. They have a playoff-caliber rotation once Matt Harvey returns from elbow surgery (You'd take Harvey-Niese-Wheeler-deGrom-Syndergaard over the rotations of either of the two teams in the World Series). But they simply do not have much in the way of position depth in their farm system, certainly no imminent middle-of-the-order hitter who seems likely to develop while 31-year-old David Wright is still in his prime and Matt Harvey is still under contract. Consider that, in 2018, just three full seasons from now, Wright will be 35 and Harvey will be in his contract year. There's a window here for the Mets, and it is 2015-18, and it is difficult to see them taking that final step back to respectability unless they can generate some offense. Strictly from a motivation standpoint, I can imagine the Mets rivaling the Phillies.

5) So, in the end. . .

Amaro has never been one to let himself be outspent. But the teams that are likely to be involved in the bidding could easily push each other to the brink of cost prohibitiveness. It will be fascinating to see how high that number gets, because the Phillies could easily handle a $20+ million per year salary without jeopardizing their future. At the same time, if the front office deems him to be worth an obscene amount, will the ownership group have enough faith is said valuation to pull the trigger?

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