If not Kansas City, then where for Ryan Howard?

The Royals have interest in acquiring Ryan Howard!

But that interest is overblown!

And a deal is highly unlikely!

Ah, baseball's hot stove. Drink it in. Logically, all three of the above reports can co-exist. But if all three reports are true, then what do we really know?

First, we know that the "baseball source" cited by the Inquirer probably isn't in any better position to predict the amount of money a team will end up absorbing in any deal for Howard, since that source said he can not see any team absorbing "more than $5 million" per year of the $60 million the Phillies still owe the first baseman. That statement is nearly self-evident when you look at last year's market for 1B/DH types and the options available this year. Last year, neither Nelson Cruz, Mike Morse nor Kendrys Morales was able to land more than $8 million guaranteed. Garrett Jones got two years and $7.75 million. Morales and Morse are back on the market this season. Why would a team pay $10 million for Howard?

We've previously estimated that there is little reason for a team to assume, at most, $2.5 million per year of Howard's salary. Even if a team believes that Howard is a better option than somebody like Morales, it will have no reason to offer to pay much more than the roughly $500,000 veteran minimum per season that it would be on the hook for if it signed Howard after the Phillies released him. That's because said team will know that it isn't bidding against anybody else, and the Phillies' only option will be to keep Howard in the fold, which is an option that the Phillies have given little indication that it will consider.

The truth is, Howard will be able to hand-pick his next team the same way he would be able to if he was a free agent. That's because his no-trade protection allows him to block 21 teams, and any AL team that has even the slightest need for his skill set is almost certainly on that list. Frankly, all 15 are probably there. The smart play for him would have been for him to allow trades to the Reds, Diamondbacks, Braves, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs and Brewers, none of whom has any chance at trading for a first baseman (because of Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Adams, Brandon Belt, Adrian Gonzalez, Anthony Rizzo and Adam Lind). So, essentially, he has a full no-trade clause.

Now, there are only two reasons why Howard would OK a deal. One, to guarantee himself more playing time than he would get for the rebuilding Phillies, who have done a good job of making it clear that they intend on prioritizing at bats for young players like Maikel Franco and, to a lesser extent Darin Ruf. Two, to give himself the opportunity to play for a contender. It would make little sense for Howard to OK a deal to a team that has the potential to use him the same way the Phillies would use him (as a lottery ticket who, in all likelihood, will end up as a platoon DH or bench bat). And when we look at the roster composition of the 15 American League teams, we're left with, at most, three teams who might have even the slightest bit of interest in Howard.

Drumroll. . .

The Tigers or the Royals. Maybe the Rangers, but only if you squint.

Those are the potential landing spots for Ryan Howard, if we take for granted that the slugger is destined for the American League. We can rule out most of the rest of the teams in the major leagues because of existing players at first base and DH. The few exceptions, we can rule out because Howard can essentially dictate where he goes, given that

So, why the Tigers?

They have nothing in the way of left-handed power right now and an opening at designated hitter. For a team desperate for a title and several gaping voids in their lineup, Howard could very well be worth a $1 million gamble, with the Tigers assuming the minimum of $500,000 in the final two years of his deal. From Howard's perspective, the chance for clear playing time on a contender that holds spring training an hour drive from his Tampa Bay area home is about as good as it is going to get.

As for the Royals, they are a contender that has a clear opening at designated hitter and are desperate for offense, and they don't play far from Howard's hometown of St. Louis.

As for the Rangers, Howard has a similar skill set to Mitch Moreland, but you can at least envision a scenario in which the Rangers decide to see if the dry Texas air might help Howard's power return.

Let's say all three of those teams tell the Phillies that, hey, we'll talk. The way these things normally work, the Phillies take those three teams to Howard and his agent, and Howard and his agent decide which situation is the best fit for him. Howard informs the Phillies of his decision, and the Phillies begin negotiating the terms of the deal. Howard and his preferred destination have all of the leverage. the Phillies have none,  which means the best they can hope for is a savings of one or two million bucks on the $60 million still owed to Howard. And forget about receiving anything other than a career minor leaguer as far as a "prospect" goes. In other words, any trade of Howard will be a trade in name only. The result will be the same as if they release him, with the Phillies on the hook for the same amount as they would be if they cut him and he signed with another team.

The teams we can definitively rule out:

Toronto: No. Justin Smoak and Juan Francisco are both lefties in the DH conversation. Edwin Incarnation is at first. Plus, most players with no-trade protection block the Blue Jays.

Rays: No. David DeJesus, James Loney left-handed bats at 1B and DH.

White Sox: No. Jose Abreu is locked in at first, and their DH at this point is righty Dayan Viciedo, who posted a near-replica of Howard's line in 2014: .231/.281/.405, 21 home runs.

Indians: No. Their lineup is already lefty heavy with Michael Bourn, Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenthal.

Red Sox: No. They have David Ortiz and Mike Napoli locked in at first base and DH.

Yankees: No. The last thing they need is another fading slugger who needs DH at bats.

Orioles: No. Early reports have them making Nelson Cruz a priority. With Chris Davis, that leaves no room for Howard.

Twins: No. They have Joe Mauer at first base and rookie Kennys Vargas is coming off a .274/.316/.456 campaign with nine home runs in 215 at bats. Vargas is a switch-hitter who crushed righties.

Angels: No. Currently slotted at DH is 25-year-old C.J. Cron, who hit .256/.289/.450 with 11 home runs in 242 at bats in his rookie year. Cron is a righty, so you could perhaps envision Howard as the left-handed half of a platoon. But if Howard has the Angels blocked, would he OK a trade to the West Coast where playing time is not guaranteed? Highly doubt it.

Astros: No. They have Jon Singleton at first base and Chris Carter at designated hitter.

Athletics: No. They have Brandon Moss and Stephen Vogt, both left-handed 1B/DH types.

Mariners: No. Two reasons: They are swimming in left-handed bats,d and it doesn't get much further from home than Seattle.