A numbers wrap on the 2016 Phillies
The 2016 Phillies won eight more games than the 2015 edition, although both teams scored (610 vs. 626) and allowed (796 vs. 809) a similar number of runs. In fact, both teams finished with an expected record (using an pythagorean equation that estimates a team's winning percentage using runs scores and allowed) of 62-100.
So this year's team greatly outperformed its expected record.
In the grand scheme, the record this season meant nothing. The front office was not measuring improvement based upon wins and losses. The same, likely, will hold for 2017. Such is the nature of a long rebuilding process.
With that said, let's go pebble hunting in a season's worth of statistics:
1. WAR loves Odubel Herrera.
Herrera, who slumped in the middle of the season, finished with a lower batting average but a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage than he posted in his rookie season. The aggregate shows a former Rule 5 pick who is among the most valuable Phillies over his first two seasons.
Ever.
This is a hard one to measure because WAR (wins above replacement) is a debatable stat. But it favors Herrera, a center fielder who played just about every day in his first two seasons. The chart below shows Phillies players by WAR in their first two seasons combined:
Rk | Player | WAR | From | To | Age | PA | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dick Allen | 8.8 | 1963 | 1964 | 21-22 | 734 | .317 | .378 | .553 |
2 | Odubel Herrera | 8.0 | 2015 | 2016 | 23-24 | 1193 | .291 | .353 | .419 |
3 | Dave Bancroft | 7.3 | 1915 | 1916 | 24-25 | 1237 | .235 | .335 | .294 |
4 | Chuck Klein | 7.2 | 1928 | 1929 | 23-24 | 954 | .357 | .404 | .634 |
5 | Richie Ashburn | 6.8 | 1948 | 1949 | 21-22 | 1258 | .304 | .371 | .370 |
6 | Del Ennis | 6.7 | 1946 | 1947 | 21-22 | 1164 | .294 | .345 | .448 |
7 | Sherry Magee | 6.3 | 1904 | 1905 | 19-20 | 1056 | .291 | .337 | .416 |
8 | Pinky May | 5.5 | 1939 | 1940 | 28-29 | 1102 | .290 | .359 | .363 |
9 | Danny Litwhiler | 5.4 | 1940 | 1941 | 23-24 | 783 | .313 | .353 | .471 |
10 | Harry Anderson | 4.8 | 1957 | 1958 | 25-26 | 1037 | .286 | .355 | .493 |
Herrera, for sure, is a player who must be more consistent. But the Phillies paid $50,000 for his rights two Decembers ago, and that looks like a hell of an investment right now.
2. The bullpen was bad in September. But remember who pitched.
The Phillies bullpen had a 7.88 ERA in 96 innings after Sept. 1. It was the worst month for a Phillies bullpen since April 1969, when the relievers pitched to a 8.18 ERA in just 33 innings.
The dismal last month skewed the Phillies' run differential and overall pitching figures. The team faced injuries to some starters and had to shut down others. They used a patchwork staff to reach the end of the season.
Player | G | IP | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hector Neris | 12 | 12.0 | 5.25 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
Edubray Ramos | 11 | 11.1 | 4.76 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
David Hernandez | 11 | 10.2 | 1.69 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
Michael Mariot | 14 | 10.2 | 4.22 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 11 |
Joely Rodriguez | 12 | 9.2 | 2.79 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Frank Herrmann | 9 | 9.0 | 6.00 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Colton Murray | 7 | 8.2 | 11.42 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
Jeanmar Gomez | 12 | 8.0 | 19.13 | 18 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
Luis Garcia | 9 | 6.2 | 5.40 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
Phil Klein | 3 | 5.2 | 9.53 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
Severino Gonzalez | 5 | 5.2 | 12.71 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Patrick Schuster | 6 | 2.0 | 45.00 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
Many of the relief arms used in September will soon be removed from the roster. Hector Neris, Jeanmar Gomez and Edubray Ramos were heavily used before September and sputtered to the end.
That is important context to an ugly month.
3. Ryan Howard had a historic final season in red pinstripes.
No player has ever hit more home runs in his final season with the Phillies than Howard did.
Player | HR | Year | Age | G | PA | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Howard | 25 | 2016 | 36 | 112 | 362 | .196 | .257 | .453 |
Buzz Arlett | 18 | 1931 | 32 | 121 | 469 | .313 | .387 | .538 |
Pancho Herrera | 13 | 1961 | 27 | 126 | 461 | .258 | .351 | .408 |
Darren Daulton | 11 | 1997 | 35 | 84 | 333 | .264 | .381 | .480 |
Beals Becker | 11 | 1915 | 28 | 112 | 376 | .246 | .301 | .414 |
Geoff Jenkins | 9 | 2008 | 33 | 115 | 322 | .246 | .301 | .392 |
Dwayne Murphy | 9 | 1989 | 34 | 98 | 185 | .218 | .341 | .423 |
Leo Norris | 9 | 1937 | 29 | 116 | 411 | .257 | .296 | .407 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Howard, 36, wants to play next season. But if he does not, his 25 homers will be among the most ever hit by a player in his last year. Just six players have hit more: David Ortiz (38, 2016), Dave Kingman (35, 1986), Mark McGwire (29, 2001), Ted Williams (29, 1960), Barry Bonds (28, 2007) and Jermaine Dye (27, 2009).
Howard's .196 batting average was the worst for a Phillies player with at least 350 plate appearances since Steve Jeltz's .187 mark in 1988.
In an odd twist of symmetry, .196 is what Mike Schmidt hit during his rookie season. Howard broke Schmidt's single-season franchise record for home runs in 2006.
4. Jerad Eickhoff joined rare company.
It's odd to think of 33 starts and a 3.70 ERA as elite benchmarks, but in the last 20 years, few Phillies pitchers have accomplished that in a season. Eickhoff joined the list in his sophomore season.
The names are impressive.
Player | Year | GS | Age | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jerad Eickhoff | 2016 | 33 | 3.65 | 25 | 197.1 | 187 | 80 | 42 | 167 |
Cole Hamels | 2013 | 33 | 3.60 | 29 | 220.0 | 205 | 88 | 50 | 202 |
Roy Halladay | 2010 | 33 | 2.44 | 33 | 250.2 | 231 | 68 | 30 | 219 |
Cole Hamels | 2010 | 33 | 3.06 | 26 | 208.2 | 185 | 71 | 61 | 211 |
Cole Hamels | 2008 | 33 | 3.09 | 24 | 227.1 | 193 | 78 | 53 | 196 |
Curt Schilling | 1998 | 35 | 3.25 | 31 | 268.2 | 236 | 97 | 61 | 300 |
Curt Schilling | 1997 | 35 | 2.97 | 30 | 254.1 | 208 | 84 | 58 | 319 |
5. The starting pitchers were young.
Both Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak insisted that 2016 was about the development of young pitchers. This was a chance for them to experience success and failure in the majors. And, for the most part, the Phillies held to that standard.
They started a pitcher younger than 27 in 124 of 162 games this season. That made it the youngest Phillies rotation in decades. Below is a list of seasons with games started by 27-or-younger pitchers:
In 2015, the Phillies had 66 games started by a pitcher younger than 27.