Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Inquirer Daily News

How many points do Flyers need?

TAMPA, Fla. -- Including Monday night’s contest against the Lightning, the Flyers have 19 games to avoid watching the playoffs go on without them for just the second time since 1995.

How many points do Flyers need?

Philadelphia Flyers´ Brayden Schenn, from left, Braydon Coburn, Kimmo<br />Timonen, of Finland, and Wayne Simmonds celebrate with Ilya Bryzgalov,<br />of Russia, after the Flyers beat the New Jersey Devils, 2-1, in a<br />shootout of an NHL hockey game, Friday, March 15, 2013, in<br />Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Philadelphia Flyers' Brayden Schenn, from left, Braydon Coburn, Kimmo Timonen, of Finland, and Wayne Simmonds celebrate with Ilya Bryzgalov, of Russia, after the Flyers beat the New Jersey Devils, 2-1, in a shootout of an NHL hockey game, Friday, March 15, 2013, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

TAMPA, Fla. -- Including Monday night’s contest against the Lightning, the Flyers have 19 games to avoid watching the playoffs go on without them for just the second time since 1995.

That leaves 50 different possible combinations of wins and losses from now until April 27.

The Flyers can increase their playoff probability to 16 percent (up from 5 percent before Friday’s game) with a win at the Tampa Bay Times Forum. If the Rangers top 8th place Carolina in their matchup, the Flyers have the possibility of being just two points out of a playoff spot on Tuesday, though they will have a five-day break in which other teams can pass them.

Here are all of the possibilities, according to SportsClubStats.com:

Record over final 19 Points Playoff Probability
19-0-0 65 100%
18-0-1 64 100%
17-0-2 63 100%
17-1-1 62 100%
16-1-2 61 100%
16-2-1 60 100%
15-2-2 59 100%
15-3-1 58 100%
14-3-2 57 100%
14-4-1 56 99.8%
13-4-2 55 98.5%
12-4-3 54 93.6%
12-5-2 53 80.7%
11-5-3 52 58.3%
11-6-2 51 34.4%
10-5-4 51 30.8%
10-6-3 50 12.6%
11-7-1 50 14.1%
10-7-2 49 4.3%
9-6-4 49 2.9%
9-7-3 48 0.7%
10-8-1 48 0.8%
9-8-2 47 0.1%
8-7-4 47 0.1%
8-8-3 46 0.0%
9-9-1 46 0.0%
8-9-2 45 0.0%
7-8-4 45 0.0%
7-9-3 44 0.0%
8-10-1 44 0.0%
7-10-2 43 0.0%
6-9-4 43 0.0%
6-10-3 42 0.0%
7-11-1 42 0.0%
6-11-2 41 0.0%
5-10-4 41 0.0%
5-11-3 40 0.0%
5-12-2 39 0.0%
4-12-3 38 0.0%
4-13-2 37 0.0%
4-14-1 36 0.0%
3-14-2 35 0.0%
3-15-1 34 0.0%
2-15-2 33 0.0%
2-16-1 32 0.0%
1-16-2 31 0.0%
1-17-1 30 0.0%
1-18-0 29 0.0%
0-18-1 28 0.0%
0-19-0 27 Everyone's Fired
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Why are these numbers important?

There are no secrets. The math spells out exactly what the Flyers need to do. It also shows how little room for error there is - and how mediocrity will not cut it. Seemingly, anything less than 11-7-1 - or a combination close to that - will be unsuccessful. That isn't impossible. (For reference, the Flyers are 10-9 in their last 19 games.) It just won't be easy.

The Flyers have never been confused as a team that makes it easy on themselves, anyway.

For the latest updates, follow Frank Seravalli on Twitter: @DNFlyers

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Frank Seravalli Daily News Sports Columnist
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