Monday, April 27, 2015

Flyers' updated playoff probabilities

175 days down. 20 to go.

Flyers' updated playoff probabilities

The Kings´ Jonathan Quick blocks a shot as the Flyers´ Scott Hartnell and Wayne Simmonds stand near during the first period. (Matt Slocum/AP)
The Kings' Jonathan Quick blocks a shot as the Flyers' Scott Hartnell and Wayne Simmonds stand near during the first period. (Matt Slocum/AP)

175 days down. 20 to go.

The Flyers were bogged down by a relentless Los Angeles puck pursuit on Monday night, as the Kings halted their season-high winning streak at five games.

Did the Kings’ game plan provide a hint at a blue print on how to beat the Flyers?

Luckily for the Flyers, even though the Rangers erased a two-goal deficit against Phoenix, the Stanley Cup playoff probabilities didn’t hurt too much.

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Here’s a quick update on the Flyers’ playoff probabilities after suffering just their third regulation loss in 15 games:

> Flyers (38-26-7) now have a 94.8 percent chance to make the playoffs heading into Tuesday night’s action. That’s based on an algorithm of games played and remaining strength of schedule from SportsClubStats.com

> Flyers trail the Rangers by 1 point, but hold two games in-hand heading into Wednesday night’s game at Madison Square Garden. This is the last regular season series (2-1 Flyers) meeting between these two likely (72.4 percent) first round opponents. Wednesday’s matchup between Broad Street and Broadway will go a long way in determining who will have home-ice advantage in the first round.

Why is that important? The Flyers have lost 6 straight at the Garden dating back to March 6, 2011. They’ve been outscored, 28-8, in that span.

The Flyers have a 42 percent shot at 2nd place in the Metro (home-ice) and 40 percent shot at 3rd place (start on the road at 2nd place). The Rangers are looking at 52 percent and 37 percent for the same positions.

> Flyers’ playoff probability stood at 25.17 percent on Jan. 31. Lowest mark of the season was 4.37 percent on Nov. 7.

> There are 11 games left in the season and 22 points remaining on the table. What are the Flyers chances depending on record?

12 points or more (4-3-4 or better): Guaranteed in.
11 points (5-5-1, 4-4-3, 3-3-5): 99.8 percent
10 points (4-5-2, 5-6-0, 3-4-4): 98.8 percent
9 points (4-6-1, 3-5-3, 2-4-5): 93.3 percent
8 points (3-6-2, 4-7-0, 2-5-4): 79.8 percent
7 points (3-7-1, 2-6-3): 58.2 percent
6 points (3-8-0, 2-7-2, 1-6-4): 28.4 percent
5 points (2-8-1, 1-7-3): 11.4 percent
4 points (2-9-0, 1-8-2): 3.0 percent
3 points (1-9-1): 0.6 percent
2 points (1-10-0): 0.1 percent
1 point (0-10-1): Guaranteed out.

> Most likely record, using that same algorithm, is Flyers finishing 6-4-1 - which would make them 44-30-8 for the 82-game season - for a total of 96 points. Last week, before the wins over Chicago, Dallas and St. Louis, Flyers were projected to go 7-6-2. The total points number is rising.

Needless to say, with just a 2-4-5 record required to likely clinch a berth, the Flyers are in a prime position. Just goes to show how far they’ve come - that given their putrid start, they could largely render the final week or 10 days of the season more or less insignificant - is quite impressive.

Enjoy the games.

For the latest updates, follow Frank Seravalli on Twitter: @DNFlyers

Daily News Staff Writer
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Frequent Flyers is your home for news and analysis of all things orange and black.

Frank Seravalli Daily News Staff Writer
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