Gauging the Hall of Fame chances of Dawkins and Owens

HOUSTON - On Saturday morning, the Pro Football Hall of Fame's 48-member selection committee will gather in a room at the George R. Brown Convention Center to pick the class of 2017 for Canton.

Most, though not all, committee members are sportswriters. Hall of Famers James Lofton and Dan Fouts are also members. We will spend between seven and eight hours in that room discussing the 15 modern-era finalists, including former Eagles Brian Dawkins and Terrell Owens, senior committee nominee Kenny Easley and the two nominees in the "contributor'' category - Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue.

Dawkins is a finalist in his first year of eligibility. This is Owens' second year of eligibility and his second year as a finalist.

People have asked me whether I think Dawkins and/or Owens will get in this year. My answer to them: I honestly don't know. I can't read the minds of the other 47 voters, and I've learned not to trust what they tell me.

I firmly believe both deserve to get in. Now. A maximum of five modern-era finalists can be selected each year. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson, who, like Dawkins, is in his first year of eligibility, almost certainly will get in. But the other four potential spots are up for grabs. When I look at this year's group, both Dawkins and Owens are among my five most deserving candidates. But that's me.

I thought Owens, who is second in NFL career receiving yards and third in career receiving touchdowns, was going to be a slam-dunk selection last year. Then he got eliminated in the first reduction vote from 15 to 10.

As far as Dawkins is concerned, safeties have been a tough sell in the room over the years. There are just seven true safeties in Canton, and another four who played both corner and safety during their careers.

But Dawkins wasn't your typical safety. He redefined the position. He could cover any receiver on the field. He was one of the best blitzing safeties in the history of the game. And yes, he could hit like a Mack truck. He made Jim Johnson's defenses go. He's the only defensive player in league history with more than 25 interceptions (37), forced fumbles (36) and sacks (26).

There are a couple of potential impediments. One is that there's another safety among the 15 modern-era finalists: John Lynch. This is Lynch's fourth straight year as a finalist.

Lynch couldn't do half the things on a football field that Dawkins could. But there will be some people in the room who will ignore that and feel Dawkins needs to wait his turn.

There's also Easley, the senior committee nominee. Senior nominees generally are voted in because they have no effect on the total number of modern-era finalists we can select. But Easley's a safety, and some people in the room might think putting two safeties in the Hall in one year is one too many.

A quick explanation on what will happen Saturday: We open the meeting with discussion on Easley and the two contributor nominees – Jones and Tagliabue. We'll then have a secret-ballot yes-or-no vote on those three.

Then, we'll spend several hours discussing the 15 modern-era finalists, position-by-position. After we've gone through all 15, there will be a reduction vote that will trim the number to 10.

The ballots will be tabulated by representatives from the accounting firm, Deloitte & Touche. We then are told which five have been eliminated.

We have the option for further discussion at that point. When we're done, we have another reduction vote that trims the number from 10 to 5. After we find out the five survivors, we have individual yes-no votes on those five.

All five of the modern-era survivors, as well as the senior committee nominee and the two contributor committee nominees, need 80 percent of the vote to be selected to the Hall of Fame. If my math is right, that means they need 38 of 48 votes.

When we leave the room after the meeting is adjourned, we have no idea about the outcome of the vote. We don't find out until shortly before the class of 2017 is introduced on the NFL Honors show Saturday night.

Here's the way I have them ranked going into the meeting. The figure in parenthesis is the number of times they've been a finalist:

1—RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1)*

2—WR Terrell Owens (2)

3—S Brian Dawkins (1)*

4—Alan Faneca (2)

5—WR Isaac Bruce (1)

6—C Kevin Mawae (1)

7—DE Jason Taylor (1)*

8—OL Tony Boselli (1)

9—OL Joe Jacoby (2)

10—CB Ty Law (1)

11—QB Kurt Warner (3)

12—S John Lynch (4)

13—Coach Don Coryell (4)

14—RB Terrell Davis (3)

15—PK Morten Andersen (4)

*first year of eligibility

(senior nominee)

S Kenny Easley (Yes)

(contributor nominees)

Jerry Jones (Yes)

Paul Tagliabue (No)

A couple of things on my rankings. I have Boselli and Davis rated as low as I do because of the short length of their careers. As far as Warner, he had just three seasons in which his touchdown-to-interception differential was higher than plus-12. Regarding Tagliabue, the other voters in the room may be able ignore his role in the league's concussion debacle. But I can't.

That's all for now.