Thursday, November 26, 2015

Week 10 NFL picks

Washington team at Vikings

Week 10 NFL picks


Washington team at Vikings

The hapless Jaguars aside, Washington and the Vikings give up more points per game than any team in the league. Washington has given up 253. The Vikes have given up 252.

But clearly, Washington has the far better offensive attack.

Seahawks at Falcons

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The Falcons can't run the ball to save their lives, and have had to throw on 70% of their offensive snaps. Being so pass heavy against the Seahawks is not ideal. Opposing QBs have a 68.6 passer rating against the Seahawks (2nd in the NFL). Seahawks are also 2nd in the NFL in yards per pass attemtps against them (6.2), and lead the league in interceptions, with 13.

The Falcons' nightmare season continues. 

Lions at Bears

Here's what I wrote about Josh McCown after he took over as the Bears' starting QB:

Josh McCown is a career backup, and not a particularly good one. Over the course of his career, he has 1133 pass attempts. He also has 44 career INTs and an absurd 41 fumbles. In other words, McCown either fumbles or throws a pick on every 13.3 pass attempts.

Oops. So far, McCown has a 100.2 passer rating, he has not thrown an INT, he has not fumbled, and he has only been sacked twice (and one of those was on a desperation Hail Mary play).

However, Matthew Stafford is quietly having a terrific season. Eight games in, Stafford is on pace for the following numbers:

  • 5234 passing yards
  • 32 TDs
  • 12 INTs
  • 20 sacks

Eagles at Packers

When the schedules were released this summer and you were reviewing the Eagles' schedule, game by game, mentally deciding what the Eagles record would be, this game in Green Bay was universally chalked up as a loss unless you were a complete homer. With Aaron Rodgers out and Seneca Wallace starting, this game is now far more winnable.

The Eagles' home losing streak is well publicized. Lost in that is their impressive record away from the Linc. The Eagles have gone 4-1 on the road this year.

Jaguars at Titans

The Jaguars are so bad, they're 12 point underdogs to the Titans.

Rams at Colts

Andrew Luck vs. Kellen Clemens...

Raiders at Giants

Obviously, the Raiders got shellacked last week against the Eagles, and well... they're the Raiders... but has anyone seen the Giants play this year? They've been embarrassed in their losses, and their wins over the Eagles and Vikings were extraordinarily unimpressive. How can the Giants be 7.5 favorites over anybody?

I'm picking them to win, but that spread seems ridiculous. What do you know, Vegas?

Bills at Steelers

It appears EJ Manuel will be returning this week, which is a massive upgrade over the disaster that was Jeff Tuel last week. Despite Tuel, the Bills should have beaten the Chiefs, but fell short.

I don't like taking the Bills on the road, but the Steelers remain terrible.

Bengals at Ravens

The Bengals lost in Miami last Thursday, despite the following:

  • They had 28 first downs to the Dolphins' 15.
  • They outgained tMiami by 120 yards.
  • 10 of 20 3rd down efficiency, to Miami's 3 of 14.
  • The possessed the ball for 11+ more minutes.

But... Andy Dalton (a wildly overrated QB, in my opinion) turned the ball over 4 times.

However, that game was a disaster in another respect, as Cincy lost stud DT Geno Atkins for the season. Still, the Bengals are otherwise stacked, and should bounce back against a disappointing Ravens team.

Panthers at 49ers

This is by far my favorite game on the schedule this week. Two tough defenses, two big athletic QBs, two teams that run the ball a lot. Great football, if you like that kind of thing. In my opinion, the Panthers are right there with the Niners, but I'll take the Niners at home.

Texans at Cardinals

The Texans aren't as bad as their record, but after dropping 6 straight games it's hard to pick them against anyone until they can win one. And now Wade Phillips is filling in temporarily asthe head coach while Gary Kubiak is out after collapsing on the field last week.

Broncos at Chargers

The Broncos are coming off their bye week, and have the following slate of games upcoming:

  • At Chargers
  • Chiefs
  • At Patriots
  • At Chiefs

It's go time for Peyton Manning.

Cowboys at Saints

The Cowboys have the 31st ranked pass D, giving up 305.2 passing yards per game. The Saints are 3rd in the NFL in passing offense, racking up 317.6 passing yards per game.

The Cowboys have allowed big days to the 2 really good tight ends they've faced this season.

Could be a big day for Jimmy Graham.

Dolphins at Buccaneers

The Dolphins have faced adversity all week in the wake of Richie Incognito being a horrible human being. That's enough to deal with from an off the field perspective, but the on the field fallout is that the Dolphins will be without 2 starting offensive linemen. Fortunately for them, all this nonsense falls on the week before they get to play Bucs.

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