Monday, July 6, 2015

Eagles training camp 2013: The numbers say there's no real advantage in Eagles' early part of schedule

When the Eagles' schedule was first released, the immediate glaring oddity was that they'll play their first three games in an 11 day span. Here's what their September schedule looks like on a calendar:

Eagles training camp 2013: The numbers say there's no real advantage in Eagles' early part of schedule

0 comments

When the Eagles' schedule was first released, the immediate glaring oddity was that they'll play their first three games in an 11 day span. Here's what their September schedule looks like on a calendar:

The perceived upside of that rough stretch, however, was that the Eagles would benefit from two things:

 

  1. There's a belief that on Thursday night matchups, the road team is at a disadvantage because their already short week of practice is made shorter, because they have to travel. The amount of time the home team has for practice/preparation outweighs the road team's by a more significant margin than it would on a normal 6-day prep schedule. In the Eagles' case, that would be the Chiefs matchup Week 3.
  2. The following week, the team who plays the Thursday night game has an advantage over their next opponent because they have 3 extra days of rest and preparation. In the Eagles' case, that would be the Broncos matchup Week 4.
More coverage
 
VOTE: Thumbs up or down on Eagles’ signing of John Moffitt?
 
A look at the Eagles' 2015 draft picks
 
Game-by-game breakdown of Eagles' schedule
 
DOWNLOAD: Philly Pro Football app
 
FORUMS: Who will make the 53-man roster?
 
Latest NFL odds
 
Buy Eagles jerseys and other gear

 

Those two theories are based on sound reasoning and logic. However, the numbers don't back up the logic.

The NFL began playing additional Thursday games (aside from the Thanksgiving Day games) with regularity in 2006. At first, they played a few Thursday night games in the weeks following Thanksgiving, and expanded slowly until a Thursday night game was played every week in 2012 (with the exception of Week 17).

In Thursday night games since 2006, the home team is 43-32, for a winning percentage of 0.573. According to SportsDataLLC.com, in all games played from 2002-2011, the home team has beaten the away team at a winning % clip of 0.572, which is almost identical to Thursday night games. In other words, the numbers say that being the home team on a Thursday night game is not any different than being the home team on a good old-fashioned Sunday afternoon. 

I also took a look at how teams fared in their games following a Thursday night matchup. Since 2006, they accumulated a record of 69-65, for a winning % of 0.515. That's a modest difference, at best.

So it appears that the Eagles' grueling 3-game stretch to begin the season is just that, and little more.

Click here for complete coverage of Philadelphia Eagles training camp.

0 comments
We encourage respectful comments but reserve the right to delete anything that doesn't contribute to an engaging dialogue.
Help us moderate this thread by flagging comments that violate our guidelines.

Comment policy:

Philly.com comments are intended to be civil, friendly conversations. Please treat other participants with respect and in a way that you would want to be treated. You are responsible for what you say. And please, stay on topic. If you see an objectionable post, please report it to us using the "Report Abuse" option.

Please note that comments are monitored by Philly.com staff. We reserve the right at all times to remove any information or materials that are unlawful, threatening, abusive, libelous, defamatory, obscene, vulgar, pornographic, profane, indecent or otherwise objectionable. Personal attacks, especially on other participants, are not permitted. We reserve the right to permanently block any user who violates these terms and conditions.

Additionally comments that are long, have multiple paragraph breaks, include code, or include hyperlinks may not be posted.

Read 0 comments
 
comments powered by Disqus
About this blog
For news, stats, video, live chats and more, Red Zone is the place to find Eagles coverage you can't get anywhere else.

Red Zone Philly.com Staff
Latest Videos:
Also on Philly.com:
letter icon Newsletter