Football Crunchy Numbers: Preseason Edition
Does Sagarin overrate Penn State?
Football Crunchy Numbers: Preseason Edition
Jonathan Tannenwald, Philly.com
Now that it's September, we can really say it's football season. And since that's the case, it's time to bring back the football version of Crunchy Numbers.
This year, I'm adding in Princeton and Bucknell. They're in the Schuylkill 16 basketball rankings, so I figure I might as well give myself more work for the heck of it.
It's completely useless to do this before the season starts, because the Sagarin Index is based on computer analysis of game results and strength of schedule based on other teams' rankings.
But that won't stop us. And it's worth noting that at the start of the season, there is some weight assigned by a process called Bayesian statistics.
I have no idea what Bayesian statistics are, but it's apparently a standard practice of some kind. If you know and can translate them into English, please leave a comment.
There is one use to a preseason Sagarin ranking: comparing where teams are now to where they finished last year. That much we can discuss, especially regarding whether a team moved too much based on graduating and returning players.
Take Penn State, for example.
(Please, say SEC fans.)
The Nittany Lions dropped all of one spot in the offseason, from No. 7 to No. 8. Do you think they're ranked too high?
Or how about Temple, which finds itself below not only Villanova but Delaware too. Is that too low?
Have at it.
8. Penn State
Last year's finish: 7
First game: 9/5 vs. No. 111 Akron, 12:00 p.m. (Big Ten Network)
Big Ten Network is on Channel 715 on Comcast Digital Classic. Channels 711-714 have been allocated by Comcast for other live games in the same timeslot.
38. Rutgers
Last year's finish: 37
First game: 9/7 vs. No. 37 Cincinnati, 12:00 p.m. (ESPN)
94. Villanova
Last year's finish: 63
First game: 9/3 vs. No. 125 Temple, 7:00 p.m.
116. Delaware
Last year's finish: 132
First game: 9/4 vs. NR West Chester (Division II), 7:00 p.m.
125. Temple
Last year's finish: 98
First game: 9/3 vs. No. 94 Villanova, 7:00 p.m.
151. Lafayette
Last year's finish: 142
First game: 9/12 at No. 230 Georgetown, 6:00 p.m.
154. Penn
Last year's finish: 151
First game: 9/19 vs. No. 94 Villanova, 7:00 p.m.
155. Lehigh
Last year's finish: 160
First game: 9/5 vs. No. 206 Central Connecticut State, 7:00 p.m.
173. Princeton
Last year's finish: 180
First game: 9/19 vs. No. 149 The Citadel, 3:00 p.m.
200. Delaware State
Last year's finish: 216
First game: 9/5 at No. 202 Florida A&M
205. Bucknell
Last year's finish: 202
First game: 9/5 at No. 219 Duquesne
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Looking forward to seeing how they run the ball against normally tough Big 10 front 7's. Evan Royster is fun to watch.— Bex- Penn State's a question mark. They are likely rated too high, but if the replacements play great they could go as high as #6. Not a top five team.— tacklinjoe
Penn State was exposed big time at the end of the year as a fraud... Big Ten hasn't been very for a while now. I don't have a favorite College team, but everybody knows the SEC is where the highest level of competition and the best players are. I think Oklahoma will be near the top, though, by year's end...— kjuggs77- Once again, Drexel will be the only local school to not lose a football game this year........— joeolive
- The secondary has too many questions as well as the receiving core.They should be able to still run the ball,and there front seven is solid so they do have some talent coming back.Plus they've have had two straight years of great recruiting so Joe is still bringing in top talent.— beez1228
- Three things to watch for: The Big Least will rise again; Jimmy Clausen will win not one, but two Heismans for Noter Damey; and Temple will rejoin the Conference from which it came!!!— theswabby
- Pre-season polls should be banned. If I were King of the World, to coin a phrase, I'd start the polls in October.— StevenT
- PENN ST, LIKE THEIR NON-CONFERNECE SCHEDULE IS A JOKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!— rw5381
- Not sure who I dislike more, Nova or Temple. Yeah it's Nova. Unfortunately I think they are going to thump those Owls. THWND !!!!— Hawks2004
- I'm looking forward to that St. Joe's-La Salle football game coming up...
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- Don't sleep on Temple this year. Look for them in a low-level bowl game this year.— PeteT
- PSU will have 1 or 2 losses then get smacked around in a bowl game. State College High School has better DBs and PSU's WRs bring nothing to the table. We'll also see what Royster can do with 3 new starters on the O-Line.— BigDawg13
- BEAT NOVA !!!!!— Hawks2004
- BEAT NOVA !!!!!— Hawks2004
- No way Hawks2K4! Andy Talley is not HALF the man Al Golden is! My good buddy WCBURRS87 scouted the MILDCATS practice last week and was wrote down all the trick plays they are going to run. He diagrammed them to me, which I passed on to Al Golden over mimosas and Irish coffees at Sunday brunch. Al Golden is about to make Andy Talley look like Scottie Reynolds at a Rodney Green convention!— Frank Lucas
- I told you Nova would win.— Hawks2004
Reach Jonathan at jtannenwald@phillynews.com or 215-854-2330.
