Friday, February 12, 2016

Crunchy Numbers Week 9: Pryor restraint

Penn State hosts Ohio State and Villanova goes to FCS No. 1-ranked Richmond. Which game is bigger?

Crunchy Numbers Week 9: Pryor restraint

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There are two big games this week. Penn State hosts a rather underwhelming Ohio State team, with much of the talk centered on Terrelle Pryor's first game at Beaver Stadium with the Buckeyes.

At the same time, Villanova travels to FCS No. 1-ranked Richmond in the CAA's game of the year.

We can talk about this more on Thursday when I put together the Spectacle of the Week poll, but I wonder which of those two games you think is bigger.
 
Note that there's a bit of a tweak in this week's rundown. I only just noticed that the Sagarin home-field advantage adjustment fluctuates every once in a while. It's now up to 3.31 points, so the predictions have been tweaked accordingly.

12. Penn State (13)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 98/93 Northwestern, 34-13
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 19 Ohio State, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Sagarin predicts: Penn State by 6 (84.66 and 3.31 to 81.59)

49. Villanova (54)
Last week: No game
This week: 11/7 at No. 53 Richmond, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast SportsNet)
Sagarin predicts: Richmond by 3 (74.05 and 3.31 to 74.82

Villanova is the top-ranked I-AA team in Sagarin and Richmond is the second. It's notable that Michigan is ranked below both of them at No. 67.

55. Rutgers (68)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 52/59 Connecticut, 28-24
This week: No game

61. Temple (76)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 45/50 Navy, 27-24
This week: 11/5 vs. No. 145 Miami (Ohio), 7:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Temple by 19 (72.00 and 3.31 to 56.04)

Yes, Temple's next game is the same night as a potential Game 7 of the World Series. I guess reaching bowl eligibility used up the Owls' luck?


114. Delaware (87)

Last week: Home loss vs. No. 137/121 James Madison, 20-8
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 151 Hofstra, 12:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Delaware by 11 (62.06 and 3.31 to 54.49)

The Dukes' win was their first in conference play of the season after four losses. Their schedule has been tough this year, but I don't think anyone expected results to be this bad.


135. Penn (149)

Last week: Road win vs. No. 165/169  Brown, 14-7 (OT)
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 225 Princeton, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 26 (57.02 and 3.31 to 34.03)

Anyone want to take the over after what we've seen from Penn's offense the last few weeks?

141. Lafayette (142)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 239/236 Bucknell, 35-14
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 163 Colgate, 1:00 p.m. (RCN-4, RCN-8, WBPH-60)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 8 (56.19 and 3.31 to 51.43)

185. Delaware State (184)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 114/109 South Carolina State, 52-10
This week: 11/7 at No. 227 Winston-Salem State, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Delaware State by 9 (44.70 to 32.82 and 3.31)

214. Lehigh (220)

Last week: Road loss vs. No. 161/163  Colgate, 27-20
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 150 Holy Cross, 12:30 p.m. (Service Electric 2)
Sagarin predicts: Holy Cross by 13 (54.54 to 38.16 and 3.31)

225. Princeton (227)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 215/220  Cornell, 17-13
This week: 11/7 at No. 135 Penn, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 26 (57.02 and 3.31 to 34.03)

236. Bucknell (239)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 142/ Lafayette, 35-14
This week: 11/7 at No. 194 Fordham, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Fordham by 17 (43.04 and 3.31 to 29.15)

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