Posted: Friday, December 11, 2009, 2:14 PM | 11 comments |
 

Could Villanova's football team beat Notre Dame?
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As Villanova's football team prepares to face William & Mary in the I-AA playoff semifinals tonight, I thought it would be cool to take a look at just how high the Wildcats have risen in Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings.

'Nova is ranked No. 37, and is the highest-ranked I-AA team by 12 spots. The Tribe are the second-highest-ranked I-AA team at No. 49. In tonight's game, Sagarin predicts the Wildcats to win by six points: 77.63 and 3.20 to 75.17.

(The game will be broadcast on ESPN2 and kick off at 8:00, in case you're near a TV. If you're near the Main Line, it should be a fun game to attend despite the cold.)

To understand just how high Villanova's ranking really is, consider the teams below them. MAC champion Central Michigan is No. 38, Boston College is No. 39 and Kentucky is No. 40.

That's all well and good, right? Then how about Connecticut at No. 41, Washington (which beat USC) at No. 42 or Florida State (44), Kansas (65), Northwestern (68) and Michigan (84) are all below the Wildcats as well.

But wait, there's more. Villanova is 11 places higher in Sagarin's rankings than Notre Dame. If the two teams met on a neutral field, Sagarin would favor the Wildcats by two points: 77.63 to 75.66.

Consider that if the two schools' men's basketball programs met on a neutral floor, Sagarin would favor Villanova by seven points: 89.17 to 2.23.

And there's this: if Penn State played Villanova on a neutral field, the No. 20-ranked Nittany Lions would be favored by only four points: 81.53 to 77.63.

Think that would ever happen?

If you believe in the transitive theory of victories, how about this: Villanova beat Temple, which beat Navy, which beat Notre Dame, which beat Washington, which beat USC, which beat Ohio State, which beat Penn State.

Yeah, I know. But you get the idea.

I'll be back tomorrow to blog live from the Army-Navy game at Lincoln Financial Field. Philly.com has a special Army-Navy preview page that features stories from the Inquirer and Daily News, video features and archive photos from past games. You should definitely check it out.
Posted by Jonathan Tannenwald @ 2:14 PM  Permalink | File Under: Crunchy Numbers | | Penn State | | Villanova | 11 comments
11
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:57 PM, 12/11/2009
    Villanova is nowhere in the same league as the teams you mentioned above, and Temple still doesn't count as a real D1 football program yet.
    — Phillies1120
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:24 PM, 12/11/2009
    The statistics say otherwise my friend. You cannot make up the stats/numbers. Villanova is clearly the best program in the city and could beat most MAC teams and be very close to several other teams mentioned in the article.
    — ak3883
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:09 PM, 12/11/2009
    Jon, you seem to put a lot stock in Sagarin rankings...however, saying 'Nova would beat Notre Dame based on Sagarin rankings just doesn't pass the smell test. Nor does saying Villanova is the #37 team in all of football, based on an early season, turnover-fueled win over a Bernard Pierce-less Temple team and a bunch of victories over 1-AA foes.
    — tjc
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:32 PM, 12/11/2009
    Talley to Temple when Golden bolts?
    — Leron
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:06 PM, 12/11/2009
    Villanova is better than Temple in Football and Basketball and probably would beat Notre Dame in Both Sports. Definitely beat them in Basketball that is a given. MAC Conference was terrible, Temple won 9 in a row and still did not win it. I don't know why that conference gets any Bowl Bids. It Stinks....
    — sbeckMAN
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:51 PM, 12/12/2009
    What do Duke, Navy, Ball State, Northwestern, Rutgers, Temple, Miss State, Virginia all have in common? They all lost AT HOME to FCS I-AA teams from the CAA the last few years!! For those who actually go to games like me, Notre Dame away from home would have a major problem beating Nova. A Penn State fan sitting with me at the Nova-William and Mary game was amazed at the size and tallent level. Navy beat ND twice in three years. Notre Dame is no better than Navy, Virginia or Northwestern. It will never happen but Nova would beat both their F-ball teams and B-ball teams.
    — GPraz1
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:01 PM, 12/12/2009
    To the Yankees/Notre dame fan. I bet against both in 2008 and 2009 and I won three out of four. Remember the Phillies? Notre Dame can't even make a bowl game and fired it's coach. I put my money in Philly on the Phillies and Villanova. Every day any day. My daddy told me that. Smart man.
    — GPraz1
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:01 PM, 12/12/2009
    To the Yankees/Notre dame fan. I bet against both in 2008 and 2009 and I won three out of four. Remember the Phillies? Notre Dame can't even make a bowl game and fired it's coach. I put my money in Philly on the Phillies and Villanova. Every day any day. My daddy told me that. Smert man.
    — GPraz1
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:41 PM, 12/13/2009
    Ummm for those of us who actually pay attention to games GPraz, Notre Dame turned down the option to go to a bowl. 6 wins gets you in genius. And by using your great logic... Villanova lost to New Hampshire which lost to UMass who lost to Hofstra who doesn't have a team any more...so basically I guess Villanova shouldn't play football.
    — Phillies1120
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:08 AM, 12/15/2009
    6 wins. I stand corrected. Notre dame turned down a Bowl game. Would have had to play Temple and lose to a team Villanova beat. Listen Notre Dame has the history, the wins, the National fan base, the stadium but right now at this moment in time Nova would at a neutral site would kick their gluteous maximus.The size and speed actually match up and winning brings a winning attitude. Navy which beat ND twice in three years had a hard time beatin the 5 ranked team in the CAA.William and Mary (beat Virginia),Richmond(beat Duke),and New Hampshire (beat Northwestern) would all give ND fits. Notre dame is Duke, Northwestern,Virginia and Navy. How many times do these teams have to win-all on the road- before we say they are just flat out better!!!
    — GPraz1


11 comments
About Jonathan Tannenwald
I fell in love with the Big 5 at first sight upon moving to Philadelphia in 2002. At various points in my journalistic career, I've covered all six of the region's Division I teams. During that time, I've eaten many soft pretzels from the Palestra's concession stands, which is how this blog got its name.

I write primarily about the University of Pennsylvania and the Ivy League, but I also cover the other basketball and football teams across the city from time to time. In the spring, you'll find coverage of the Penn Relays here.

In addition to all of that, I write Philly.com's soccer blog, The Goalkeeper.

You can contact me by email by clicking here.

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