Let's start tonight by setting out the agenda for the rest of the week. After going to the football coaches' luncheon tomorrow, and I'll post the Spectacle of the Week poll and Top 10 chart on Thursday this week.

On Friday, you'll get the season's first edition of the Schuylkill 16 rankings. Then I'll head out to City Avenue for Drexel-St. Joe's, as the Hawks christen Hagan Arena with a good matchup.

I was at Hagan Arena this afternoon for St. Joe's media day, and you'll get that blog post later tonight. There will be a lengthy audio track of Phil Martelli talking to reporters and a photo gallery of the new gym.

After Friday night's game, I will head straight to 30th Street Station and get on a train bound for Boston. A few hours of sleep later, I'll head to Harvard Stadium to cover Penn's Ivy League football title showdown against the Crimson for the Inquirer.

I know that a couple of you have gotten on my case for writing about Penn a lot, but it's what I do and I've said that many times before. This game is particularly important, as a win would give the Quakers their first championship since 2003.

If that happens, we could be on course for the most successful season in local college football history. I can't remember ever seeing or reading about a year in which Penn, Villanova and Temple all won conference championships. That is a real possibility. I'd love to hear from the historians among you about whether anything like this has happened before.

It's important to note that the Penn-Harvard game will not be on television anywhere. So I will be liveblogging from the press box, and I would strongly encourage you to join me starting just before noon. I know a lot of Penn fans read this blog, so hopefully the word will get out.

Next Monday, I'll be courtside at the Pavilion as Penn and Villanova meet in the first Big 5 game of the season. Then on Tuesday, I'll be live-blogging from Washington as Temple faces Georgetown as part of ESPN's 24-hour college basketball marathon.

That game will start at 4 p.m., so be sure to check out the blog if you're stuck at your desk and can't get to a television.

I'll probably go dark for a few days after that. I might put up a post on Thursday or Friday, but the next live events will be on the 21st. I'll be covering the Penn-Cornell football game and the Penn-Delaware basketball game for the Inquirer, and there will be live coverage from Franklin Field.

I would do something for the basketball game, but since that's a 7 p.m. tipoff I'll have print deadlines to deal with. So there probably won't be a liveblog for that game.

That's the agenda for the next few weeks. The intersection of college football and basketball is always a crazy time, but it's also a lot of fun. And as you know, this blog is the best place to take it all in.

Now we get to the latest edition of Football Crunchy Numbers. This week's home advantage factor is 3.11 points.

19. Penn State (12)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 19/12 Ohio State, 24-7
This week: 11/14 vs. No. 91 Indiana, 12:00 p.m. (Big Ten Network)
Sagarin predicts: Penn State by 20 (82.01 and 3.11 to 65.60)

46. Villanova (49)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 53/57 Richmond, 21-20
This week: 11/14 at No. 195 Towson, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Villanova by 31 (76.13 to 41.80 and 3.11)

53. Rutgers (55)
Last week: No game
This week: 11/12 vs. No. 22 South Florida, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Sagarin predicts: South Florida by 3 (79.97 to 74.08 and 3.11)

65. Temple (61)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 145/140 Miami (Ohio), 34-32
This week: 11/13 at No. 134 Akron, 8:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Sagarin predicts: Temple by 10 (70.94 to 57.36 and 3.11)

116. Delaware (114)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 151/154 Hofstra, 28-24
This week: 11/14 at No. 41 Navy, 3:30 p.m. (CBS College Sports)
Sagarin predicts: Delaware by 20 (77.21 and 3.11 to to 60.35)

137. Penn (135)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 225/228 Princeton, 42-7
This week: 11/14 at No. 157 Harvard, 12:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 1 (56.30 to 52.45 and 3.11)

141. Lafayette (141)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 163/160 Colgate, 56-49
This week: 11/14 at No. 150 Holy Cross, 12:30 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WPBPH-60)
Sagarin predicts: Holy Cross by 1 (53.80 and 3.11 to 55.97)

189. Delaware State (185)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 227/229 Winston-Salem State, 24-21
This week: 11/14 vs. No. 169 Norfolk State, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Norfolk State by 2 (48.07 to 43.18 and 3.11)

214. Lehigh (214)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 150/150 Holy Cross, 24-20
This week: 11/14 at No. 199 Fordham, 12:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Fordham by 7 (41.57 and 3.11 to 37.48)

228. Princeton (225)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 135/137 Penn, 42-7
This week: 11/14 vs. No. 190. Yale, 1:00 p.m. (YES Network)
Sagarin predicts: Yale by 8 (43.12 to 31.88 and 3.11)

237. Bucknell (236)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 194/199 Fordham, 21-7
This week: 11/14 at No. 160 Colgate, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Colgate by 25 (50.57 and 3.11 to 28.89)

There are two big games this week. Penn State hosts a rather underwhelming Ohio State team, with much of the talk centered on Terrelle Pryor's first game at Beaver Stadium with the Buckeyes.

At the same time, Villanova travels to FCS No. 1-ranked Richmond in the CAA's game of the year.

We can talk about this more on Thursday when I put together the Spectacle of the Week poll, but I wonder which of those two games you think is bigger.
 
Note that there's a bit of a tweak in this week's rundown. I only just noticed that the Sagarin home-field advantage adjustment fluctuates every once in a while. It's now up to 3.31 points, so the predictions have been tweaked accordingly.

12. Penn State (13)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 98/93 Northwestern, 34-13
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 19 Ohio State, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Sagarin predicts: Penn State by 6 (84.66 and 3.31 to 81.59)

49. Villanova (54)
Last week: No game
This week: 11/7 at No. 53 Richmond, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast SportsNet)
Sagarin predicts: Richmond by 3 (74.05 and 3.31 to 74.82

Villanova is the top-ranked I-AA team in Sagarin and Richmond is the second. It's notable that Michigan is ranked below both of them at No. 67.

55. Rutgers (68)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 52/59 Connecticut, 28-24
This week: No game

61. Temple (76)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 45/50 Navy, 27-24
This week: 11/5 vs. No. 145 Miami (Ohio), 7:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Temple by 19 (72.00 and 3.31 to 56.04)

Yes, Temple's next game is the same night as a potential Game 7 of the World Series. I guess reaching bowl eligibility used up the Owls' luck?

114. Delaware (87)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 137/121 James Madison, 20-8
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 151 Hofstra, 12:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Delaware by 11 (62.06 and 3.31 to 54.49)

The Dukes' win was their first in conference play of the season after four losses. Their schedule has been tough this year, but I don't think anyone expected results to be this bad.

135. Penn (149)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 165/169  Brown, 14-7 (OT)
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 225 Princeton, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 26 (57.02 and 3.31 to 34.03)

Anyone want to take the over after what we've seen from Penn's offense the last few weeks?

141. Lafayette (142)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 239/236 Bucknell, 35-14
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 163 Colgate, 1:00 p.m. (RCN-4, RCN-8, WBPH-60)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 8 (56.19 and 3.31 to 51.43)

185. Delaware State (184)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 114/109 South Carolina State, 52-10
This week: 11/7 at No. 227 Winston-Salem State, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Delaware State by 9 (44.70 to 32.82 and 3.31)

214. Lehigh (220)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 161/163  Colgate, 27-20
This week: 11/7 vs. No. 150 Holy Cross, 12:30 p.m. (Service Electric 2)
Sagarin predicts: Holy Cross by 13 (54.54 to 38.16 and 3.31)

225. Princeton (227)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 215/220  Cornell, 17-13
This week: 11/7 at No. 135 Penn, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 26 (57.02 and 3.31 to 34.03)

236. Bucknell (239)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 142/ Lafayette, 35-14
This week: 11/7 at No. 194 Fordham, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Fordham by 17 (43.04 and 3.31 to 29.15)

With all due respect to Penn State, the biggest game of this weekend is probably Temple at Navy. The Owls are a win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since they won seven games in 1990. They haven't actually played in a bowl game since beating California, 28-15, in the 1979 Garden State Bowl at Giants Stadium.

If Temple really does end up in a bowl game, I will go into the Inquirer and Daily News archives and get the stories from that game.

The other big game this weekend is Penn's trip to Brown, where the QUakers haven't won since 2003. The Quakers haven't beaten the Bears at all since 2004. Sagarin has both those streaks ending Saturday by a narrow margin, which surprises me.

It will be almost entirely on Penn's defensive backfield to win this game. Brown ranks No. 7 in the FCS with an average of 290 passing yards per game. If Chris Wynn and Jonathan Moore can do something about that, Quakers quarterback Kyle Olson will have a chance to put points on the board going in the other direction.

While Brown ranks 21st in rushing defense, allowing 98.33 yards per game, the Bears are 105th in passing defense at 243.67 yards per game.

The Penn-Brown game will not be televised, but I will be in Providence to cover the game for the Inquirer. Kickoff is at 12:30 p.m., and I'll try to provide some live coverage here on the blog.

13. Penn State (21)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 34/46 Michigan, 35-10
This week: 10/31 at No. 98 Northwestern, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Sagarin predicts: Penn State by 17 (84.76 to 65.12 and 3)

54. Villanova (58)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 200/197 Rhode Island, 36-7
This week: No game

68. Rutgers (78)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 141/144 Army, 27-10
This week: 10/31 at No. 52 Connecticut, 12:00 p.m. (WPVI-6, ESPN360.com)
Sagarin predicts: Connecticut by 7 (73.72 and 3 to 70.12)

76. Temple (97)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 104/117 Toledo, 40-22
This week: 10/31 at No. 45 Navy, 3:30 p.m. (CBS College Sports)
Sagarin predicts: Navy by 10 (75.91 and 3 to 68.63)

87. Delaware (86)
Last week: No game
This week: 10/31 vs. No. 137 James Madison, 12:00 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Delaware by 13 (66.92 and 3 to 56.66)

142. Lafayette (136)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 194/190 Fordham, 26-21
This week: 10/31 vs. No. 239 Bucknell, 1:00 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WBPH-60)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 31 (55.49 and 3 to 27.87)

149. Penn (150)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 196/191 Yale, 9-0
This week: 10/31 at No. 165 Brown, 12:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 1 (54.22 to 50.09 and 3)

184. Delaware State (188)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 178/194 Morgan State, 35-22
This week: 10/31 at No. 114 South Carolina State, 1:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: South Carolina State by 20 (61.76 and 3 to 45.21)

220. Lehigh (225)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 233/239 Bucknell, 35-16
This week: 10/31 at No. 161 Colgate, 1:00 p.m. (WFMZ-69, Fox College Sports)
Sagarin predicts: Colgate by 17 (50.87 and 3 to 36.66)

227. Princeton (236)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 172/160 Harvard, 37-3
This week: 10/31 vs. No. 215 Cornell, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Cornell by 5 (37.97 to 32.08 and 3)

239. Bucknell (233)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 225/220 Lehigh, 35-16
This week: 10/31 at No. 142 Lafayette, 1:00 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WBPH-60)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 31 (55.49 and 3 to 27.87)

Lots of stuff to talk about today, and we’ll start by looking ahead to tomorrow.

Tomorrow is Big East men’s basketball media day at Madison Square Garden, and I’ll be there bright and early to bring you live coverage all day.

I’ll also have a few new hoops-related treats to unveil for you that I think you’ll like. Stay tuned.

I don’t have any inside scoops, but if I had to bet I think Villanova will be picked very high in the preseason poll. My guess is either the Wildcats or West Virginia will be No. 1, with Georgetown third.

We already know about the CAA preseason poll. Their media day was today down in Washington, and the Dragons were picked to finish seventh. Old Dominion was picked to finish first, with Northeastern second and Virginia Commonwealth third.

The Dragons women’s team was picked first, with star forward Gabriela Marginean named as the preseason player of the year.

Philly Hoops Insider has the complete breakdown.

Tomorrow night, I’ll be liveblogging Dodgers-Phillies Game 4 tomorrow night. Our liveblogs so far have been incredibly successful and a lot of fun, so I hope you’ll join me.

Because of tomorrow’s events, I won’t be at the football coaches luncheon (nor will most of the reporters who usually attend, if you think about it). So today’s Crunchy Numbers post includes the Division II and Division III recap.

A bit of bonus reading material before we get there, though. First of all, as it’s Tuesday, there’s a new Forde-Yard Dash.

Second, ESPN released (in PDF form) its college basketball TV schedule for the coming season this afternoon. Sports Illustrated’s Richard Deitsch tweeted that it measures 9,248 words.

As with last year, I’ll be compiling spreadsheet schedules for the City Six men’s and women’s teams and another one with all of the nationally televised games this season.

They are formatted so you can easily export them to the calendar in Outlook. I don’t know if they are compatible with Google Calendar, but if any of you know how to do that, please shoot me an email and let me know.

Now for this week’s numbers.

Division I

21. Penn State (28)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 54/59 Minnesota, 20-0
This week: 10/24 at No. 34 Michigan, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Sagarin predicts: Michigan by 1 (77.91 and 3 to 80.42)

58. Villanova (69)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 119/135 James Madison, 27-0
This week: 10/24 vs. No. 200 Rhode Island, 3:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Villanova by 33 (72.84 and 3 to 42.53)

The result of the week without a doubt. Because of how close the last few 'Nova-JMU games have been, and because it pushes them quite some distance above Rutgers. Think I should mention that in New York?

78. Rutgers (62)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 26/24 Pittsburgh, 24-17
This week: 10/23 at No. 141 Army, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Sagarin predicts: Rutgers by 10 (68.76 to 55.47 and 3)

86. Delaware (90)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 181/187 Towson, 49-21
This week: No game

97. Temple (96)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 131/141 Army, 27-13
This week: 10/24 at No. 104 Toledo, 7:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Toledo by 1 (63.81 and 3 to 65.41)

136. Lafayette (147)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 138/172 Harvard, 35-18
This week: 10/24 vs. No. 194 Fordham, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 15 (56.69 and 3 to 44.70)

150. Penn (172)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 161/164 Columbia, 27-13
This week: 10/24 vs. No. 196 Yale, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 13 (54.27 and 3 to 44.19)

188. Delaware State (187)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 37/34 Michigan, 63-6
This week: 10/24 vs. No. 178 Morgan State, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Delaware State by 2 (46.63 and 3 to 48.07)

225. Lehigh (205)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 188/196 Yale, 7-0
This week: 10/24 at No. 233 Bucknell, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Lehigh by 1 (35.39 to 32.25 and 3)

233. Bucknell (229)
Last week: No game
This week: 10/24 vs. No. 225 Lehigh, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Lehigh by 1 (35.39 to 32.25 and 3)

236. Princeton (214)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 160/185 Brown, 34-17
This week: 10/24 at No. 172 Harvard, 12:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Harvard by 21 (49.06 and 3 to 31.16)

It’s the first time since Bucknell was added to Crunchy Numbers that the Bison aren’t in last place. I can’t honestly say I expected Princeton to do the honors, but it looks like the Tigers really are that bad. And it won’t get any better this week.

Divisions II and III

West Chester
Last week: Road loss vs. Shippensburg 24-19
This week: 10/22 vs. Cheyney, 6:00 p.m.

Delaware Valley
Last week: Home win vs. Wilkes, 23-0
This week: 10/24 at Lycoming, 1:00 p.m.

Rowan
Last week: Road win vs. Morrisville State, 67-0
This week: 10/24 vs. Buffalo State, 1:30 p.m.

Ursinus
Last week: Road win vs. Johns Hopkins, 16-14
This week: 10/24 at McDaniel (Westminster, Md.), 1:00 p.m.

McDaniel is notable for being the site of the Baltimore Ravens’ training camp.

Widener
Last week: Home loss vs. Lycoming, 28-16
This week: 10/24 at Albright, 1:00 p.m.

Lincoln
Last week: Road loss vs. Elizabeth City State, 54-18
This week: 10/24 vs. Virginia State, 1:30 p.m.

Cheyney
Last week: Road loss vs. Bloomsburg, 28-16
This week: 10/22 at West Chester, 6:00 p.m.

A schedule update to start things off. After tomorrow afternoon's football coaches luncheon, I am headed to Washington to cover the U.S.-Costa Rica soccer game for the Inquirer.

Many of you have heard by now that star U.S. forward Charlie Davies was seriously injured in a car crash in the early hours of this morning on a highway near the team's hotel in Arlington, Va.

The U.S. Soccer Federation announced this evening that Davies suffered a lacerated bladder and fractures to the tibia and femur bones in his right leg. He also suffered facial fractures and a left elbow fracture

You can get more information from the Washington Post, SI.com and the Associated Press.

This is obviously a very big deal and it will overshadow tomorrow night's game to no small degree. But the game is of consequence. With a win, the U.S. would finish in first place outright in the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying for the first time in its history.

Costa Rica will be playing to avoid fourth place, which would put it in a playoff with the fifth-placed team in South America for a World Cup berth. That team could be Argentina if it does not win or tie at longtime rival Uruguay tomorrow.

The U.S. game starts at 8:00 tomorrow, with ESPN2 coming on the air at 7:30. I hope to do a live chat from RFK Stadium during the game, and I'll also have another widget for you bringing in the nationwide conversation on Twitter.

Now for this week's Crunchy Numbers.

The Inquirer's sports department put up a poll last night asking whether the Eagles or Penn State has a softer schedule. I would be seriously inclined to pick the Nittany Lions.

This is the seventh week of Crunchy Numbers this season. In each of the five editions after Penn State's wins, they fell in the Sagarin rankings. In the edition after their loss to Iowa, they rose.

As Mike Kern liks to say, you can look it up.

Now the Nittany Lions are in conference play for the rest of the season. I'll be interested to see if they move up with a win over Minnesota, because it's at home and the Gophers aren't that good.

I'll also be interested to see if Villanova jumps over Rutgers with a win at James Madison. It's a very big game for the Dukes, who narrowly lost to Richmond last weekend. They're now 2-3 overall and 0-2 in CAA play, so they can't lose any more games for the rest of the season if they want to make the playoffs.

And by the way, Sagarin has Columbia beating Penn by four points. Chew on that.

28. Penn State (18)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 152/156 Eastern Illinois, 52-3
This week: 10/17 vs. No. 54 Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Sagarin predicts: Penn State by 8 (79.05 and 3 to to 74.47)

62. Rutgers (56)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 231/224 Texas Southern, 42-0
This week: 10/16 vs. No. 26 Pittsburgh, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN)
Sagarin predicts: Pittsburgh by 5 (79.40 to to 71.40 and 3)

69. Villanova (64)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 110/81 New Hampshire, 28-24
This week: 10/17 at No. 119 James Madison, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Villanova by 6 (70.39 to 61.20 and 3)

90. Delaware (118)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 90/106 Massachusetts, 43-27
This week: 10/17 at No. 181 Towson, 3:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Delaware by 15 (65.50 to 47.53 and 3)

96. Temple (97)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 156/157 Ball State, 24-19
This week: 10/17 vs. No. 131 Army, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Temple by 10 (64.75 and 3 to 57.94)

147. Lafayette (146)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 174/161 Columbia, 24-21
This week: 10/17 at No. 138 Harvard, 12:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Harvard by 6 (57.33 and 3 to 54.56)

172. Penn (167)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 222/229 Bucknell, 21-3
This week: 10/17 at No. 161 Columbia, 1:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Columbia by 4 (51.82 and 3 to 49.96)

187. Delaware State (177)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 228/215 Bethune Cookman, 9-7
This week: 10/17 at No. 37 Michigan, 12:00 p.m. (Big Ten Network)
Sagarin predicts: Michigan by 34 (77.34 and 3 to 46.04)

205. Lehigh (200)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 235/241 Georgetown, 27-0
This week: 10/17 vs. No. 188 Yale, 12:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Yale by 1 (45.34 to 41.15 and 3)

214. Princeton (209)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 142/146 Colgate, 21-14 (2 OT)
This week: 10/17 at No. 160 Brown, 12:30 p.m. (Versus)
Sagarin predicts: Brown by 17 (52.10 and 3 to 38.17)

229. Bucknell (222)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 167/172 Penn, 21-3
This week: No game

NOTE: This post has been updated from the original version...

Let's start with a bit of housekeeping (with apologies to Dan Levy), because the next few weeks are going to be a bit busy here on the blog.

This coming Saturday, I'll be at Franklin Field to cover the Bucknell-Penn football game for the Inquirer. I hope to open a chat during the game, so be ready for a post near the 1:00 p.m. kickoff.

Saturday night, the U.S. national soccer team will play a World Cup Qualifying at Honduras. Because the Honduran soccer federation owns the broadcast rights, the match will only air on closed-circuit television in the United States.

This morning, Tir Na Nog at 16th and Arch was added to the rights-holder's official list of establishments that will show the game. That is the only location in the region that is airing the English-language broadcast as of now. I will be there, and I hope to provide some kind of updates either here on the blog or on Twitter if I can't get a laptop into the room.

The list of establishments showing the game in Spanish include two in South Jersey: Los Compadres in Atlantic City (2701 Arctic Ave.) and La Escondida II in Pleasantville (701 Black Horse Pike).

The game is scheduled to kick off at 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The cover charge is supposed to be $15.

The following Wednesday, Oct. 14, I'll be in Washington, D.C. to cover the U.S.' final World Cup Qualifying match against Costa Rica. I know that a number of you are planning to go to the game, so I'll take this opportunity to remind you that this blog and our live chats are iPhone-compatible. So those of you who have iPhones are welcome to join the conversation from the the stands.

On Saturday, Oct. 17, I'll be in New York to cover Penn's football game at Columbia. I was as shocked as anyone when I saw the Lions' scoreline from this past weekend: a 38-0 win at Princeton. The result was Columbia's first road shutout of an Ancient Eight opponent since 1961, and in general it was the kind of statement game that sent shockwaves around the league.

I have seen Penn teams pound Columbia squads a number of times, and before Saturday I figured this year would be more of the same. I suspect I am not the only one out there who wonders if things might change this time around.

The game will kick off at 1:30, and as with the Bucknell game I hope to have some kind of chat during the afternoon. There are a number of big national games that day, so we should have plenty to talk about.

Finally, I'll be back in Manhattan on Wednesday, Oct. 21, to begin the countdown to college basketball season at Big East Media Day. While this year's conference might not measure up to last year's strong season, there will still be plenty of attention paid to events at Madison Square Garden that day. I will be particularly interested to see how big a crowd Rick Pitino draws.

There will be live coverage as well as plenty of multimedia from the event.

So that's what we have to look forward to.

As for today, we have the latest edition of Football Crunchy Numbers.

18. Penn State (23)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 85/91 Illinois, 35-17
This week: 10/10 vs. No. 152 Eastern Illinois, 12:00 p.m. (ESPN Classic)
Sagarin predicts: Penn State by 31 (81.43 and 3 to 53.61)

56. Rutgers (54)
Last week: No game
This week: 10/10 vs. No. 231 Texas Southern, 3:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Rutgers by 45 (73.21 and 3 to 31.23)

64. Villanova (83)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 82/77 William & Mary, 28-17
This week: 10/10 at No. 110 New Hampshire, 12:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Villanova by 5 (71.51 to 63.05 and 3)

For the record, 58 of the 120 teams in I-A football are ranked below Villanova in the Sagarin Index. Among the notable names are Kansas State, Syracuse and Purdue.

97. Temple (109)
Last week: Road vs No. 159/164 Eastern Michigan, 24-12
This week: 10/10 vs. No. 156 Ball State, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Temple by 15 (65.01 and 3 to 52.82)

118. Delaware (120)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 156/159 Maine, 27-17
This week: 10/10 vs. No. 90 Massachusetts, 10:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Massachussets by 1 (65.58 to 61.39 and 3)

146. Lafayette (162)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 167/188 Yale, 31-14
This week: 10/10 vs. No. 174 Columbia, 6:00 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WBPH-60, tape-delayed on MASN)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 9 (55.84 and 3 to 49.50)

167. Penn (164)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 209/204 Dartmouth, 30-24
This week: 10/10 vs. No. 222 Bucknell, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 18 (51.38 and 3 to 36.51)

177. Delaware State (184)
Last week: No game
This week: 10/10 vs. No. 228 Bethune-Cookman, 7:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Delaware State by 20 (48.80 and 3 to 32.30)

200. Lehigh (186)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 151/137 Harvard, 28-14
This week: 10/10 vs. No. 235 Georgetown, 12:30 p.m. (Service Electric 2, tape-delayed on Fox College Sports)
Sagarin predicts: Lehigh by 15 (42.05 and 3 to 29.60)

209. Princeton (179)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 201/174 Columbia, 38-0
This week: 10/8 vs. No. 142 Colgate, 7:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
Sagarin predicts: Colgate by 13 (56.43 to 40.47 and 3)

222. Bucknell (223)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 232/235 Georgetown, 14-6
This week: 10/10 at No. 167 Penn, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 18 (51.38 and 3 to 36.51)

Okay, let's see here. We have on our hands a local I-AA football team that played at Franklin Field on Sept. 19, employs a spread-option offense and is using two quarterbacks at the moment.

Yes, that description now applies to Penn as well as Villanova.

I wasn't in Easton this past weekend for the Quakers' 20-17 overtime loss to Lafayette. But Penn starter Keiffer Garton has a sore shoulder at the moment, which meant that Kyle Olson took most of the snaps under center against the Leopards.

"We didn't want to jeopardize ourselves and put Keiffer in harm's way, so he played very limited snaps," Penn coach Al Bagnoli said on the league's weekly conference call this morning. "Hopefully that will mean he's 100 percent this week."

Given those words, it sounds like Garton is still the starter. From the tone of Bagnoli's voice, it sounds like he meant it too.

But reading the accounts of Saturday's game, it's impossible to ignore Olson's two touchdowns and 151 passing yards as Penn rallied from 17-3 down to force overtime.

Which leads me to think that Penn is starting to bear even more resemblance to Villanova.

Andy Talley has spent plenty of time over the last few seasons deflecting questions about whether his team's chemistry has been affected by using two quarterbacks. Things have worked so far, but the system's critics are still talking.

Statistically, it looks like things worked well enough for Penn against Lafayette. The Quakers racked up 290 yards of total offense that were pretty evenly spread between the ground and the air, and committed only one turnover.

But the stakes will be higher in this coming Saturday's Ivy League opener at Dartmouth, which strikes me as a classic trap game. Yes, the Big Green were a perfect 0-10 last season, and are 0-2 so far this year. But losing to Colgate and New Hampshire is no great sin.

Factor in the marathon bus rise from Philadelphia to Hanover - just because the jersey says Penn doesn't mean they spend like Wharton - and the fact that Dartmouth has stability under center with Alex Jenny, and I just can't help wondering.

I put the trap game question to Bagnoli this morning, and his answer was "I hope not."

"We're disappointed with our start - we played two very good teams, and we had chances to win in both games and weren't able to do that," he said. "I think our kids are hungry to play well and finish an opponent off and show people that we're the team we're capable of being. We haven't shown it yet."

On the whole, Penn should win the game. This isn't like Iowa-Penn State last week, or even the reverse game last year at Kinnick Stadium. But nor should it be taken lightly. After all, Penn lost in Hanover on its last trip there two years ago.

It's worth noting that Penn-Dartmouth and Villanova-William and Mary will be televised back-to-back on Versus, at 12:00 and 3:30 p.m. respectively. We'll discuss the big national games later in the week, but you might consider keeping that in mind as you plan your Saturday.

We turn now to this week's Division I roundup, and I suspect we all know what's coming. I'm not a fan of using a purely statistical approach to sports, but we have to give Sagarin credit for calling the upset in State College.

23. Penn State (32)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 7/5 Iowa, 21-10
This week: 10/3 at No. 85 Illinois, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Sagarin predicts: Penn State by 10 (81.72 to 68.70 and 3)

54. Rutgers (68)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 98/86 Maryland, 34-13
This week: No game

83. Villanova (82)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 215/196 Northeastern, 56-7
This week: 10/3 vs. No. 82 William & Mary, 3:30 p.m. (Versus)
Sagarin predicts: Villanova by 3 (66.78 and 3 to 67.15)

109. Temple (125)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 106/127 Buffalo, 37-13
This week: 10/3 at No. 159 Eastern Michigan, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Temple by 6 (61.45 to 52.91 and 3)

Note that the radio broadcast will be on WHAT 1340-AM, not the previously scheduled WPHT 1210-AM.

120. Delaware (121)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 80/82 William & Mary, 30-20
This week: 10/3 at No. 156 Maine, 6:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Delaware by 4 (60.32 to 53.36 and 3)

162. Lafayette (175)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 156/164 Penn, 20-17 (OT)
This week: 10/3 at No. 167 Yale, 12:00 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WBPH-60, tape-delayed on MASN)
Sagarin predicts: Yale by 2 (51.00 and 3 to 51.86)

164. Penn (156)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 175/162 Lafayette, 20-17 (OT)
This week: 10/3 at No. 209 Dartmouth, 12:00 p.m. (Versus)
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 7 (51.65 minus 41.63 and 3)

179. Princeton (176)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 174/186 Lehigh, 17-14
This week: 10/3 vs. No. 201 Columbia, 3:00 p.m. (FiOS1)
Sagarin predicts: Princeton by 9 (48.34 and 3 to 42.34)

186. Lehigh (174)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 176/179 Princeton, 17-14
This week: 10/3 vs. No. 151 Harvard, 12:30 p.m. (Service Electric 2, tape-delayed on Fox College Sports)
Sagarin predicts: Harvard by 4 (53.94 to 47.00 and 3)

184. Delaware State (183)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 184/207 Hampton, 21-6
This week: No game

223. Bucknell (234)
Last week: Home vs. No. 238/237 Marist, 17-16
This week: 10/3 vs. No. 232 Georgetown, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Bucknell by 9 (36.34 and 3 to 30.42)

Before we get to the stats, here are a few things worth reading today.

First, as it's Tuesday, that means there's a new Forde-Yard Dash.

Second, check out this long piece by Andy Katz about how college basketball recruiters are using social networking websites to go around coaches in order to contact players. It's very detailed, but it doesn't leave you very optimistic about the state of things.

Every once in a while, I get asked whether I've heard some rumor about a player being recruited by a local school. My answer is almost always that I haven't, because I don't pay attention to recruiting.

There are two reasons for this. First, I'm never really sure how to judge the quality of a player without doing a lot of research about the player and the quality of his (or her) opponents. If the player is a McDonald's All-American, that is of course a big deal. But short of that, how much can we really know before the player faces college-level opposition?

The other reason why I don't write about recruiting is that I find much of what goes on in the recruiting process to be seamy at best and reprehensible at worst. There are plenty of coaches who go about the process honestly, refusing to play the game with runners and AAU hangers-on.

But we also have seen countless instances where players take advantage of loopholes and in turn run the risk of being taken advantage of by associates interested in money and nothing else.

Obviously, ignoring all this won't make go away. In fact, collective ignorance of unethical recruiting will probably only make things worse.

But at least now you might have a better understanding of where I'm coming from.

On a happier hoops-related note, congrats to the Storming the Floor team on their new redesign. It would be nice if they could put something Philly-related in their banner, but they are a national blog after all.

So now we move on to the numbers, and in today's edition we introduce a new feature.

One of the things that Sagarin is used for is to predict game outcomes. The basis for the rankings is a score out of 100 points. If you subtract the lower team's score from the higher team's score and add three points to the home team for advantage, you get the predicted margin of victory.

It would have been interesting to do this for Penn and Villanova last week, but let's use this week's numbers as an example of how the system works.

Villanova's score is 67.25. Subtract the sum of Penn's 53.54 and three points for home advantage from the Wildcats' total, and you get a difference of 11 points (67.25 - [53.54 + 3]).

Wouldn't you know it, 'Nova won by a 14-3 margin.

Now we come to the reason why I decided to introduce the feature this week: the formula favors Iowa by seven points over Penn State.

Consider that for a moment. The Hawkeyes are unranked; the Nittany Lions have revenge on their minds after last year and will take the field in prime time amid a whiteout at Beaver Stadium.

But Iowa is No. 7 in Sagarin with a 87.91 rating, and Penn State is No. 32 with a 77.75 rating. Do the math: 87.91 - (77.75 + 3) = 7.16.

It's a clear knock against the Nittany Lions for their creampuff non-conference schedule. Iowa's wins are against Northern Iowa, at Iowa State and Arizona - not great, but not St. Leo's and Eastern Illinois either.

With that in mind, we finally get to this week's numbers. Predicted margins of victory are rounded to the nearest whole number, except for margins less than one point, which are rounded up.

And of course, these numbers are for recreational purposes only, though they aren't official betting lines anyway.

32. Penn State (17)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 146/125 Temple, 31-6
This week: 9/26 vs. No. 7 Iowa, 8:00 p.m. (ABC)
Sagarin predicts: Iowa by 7 (87.91 minus 77.75 and 3)

68. Rutgers (93)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 104/92 Florida International, 23-15
This week: 9/26 at No. 98 Maryland, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN360.com)
Sagarin predicts: Rutgers by 3 (70.69 minus 64.63 and 3)

82. Villanova (97)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 151/156 Penn, 14-3
This week: 9/26 vs. No. 215 Northeastern, 3:30 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Villanova by 30 (67.25 and 3 minus 40.30)

121. Delaware (103)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 214/183 Delaware State, 27-17
This week: 9/26 at No. 80 Wiliam & Mary, 7:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: William & Mary by 10 (67.76 and 3 minus 60.47)

125. Temple (146)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 17/32 Penn State, 31-6
This week: 9/26 vs. No. 106 Buffalo, 12:00 p.m. (WPHL-17, ESPN360.com)
Sagarin predicts: Temple by 1 (60.04 and 3 minus 62.67)

156. Penn (151)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 97/82 Villanova, 14-3
This week: 9/26 at No. 175 Lafayette, 6:00 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WBPH-60, tape-delayed on MASN)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 1 (50.99 and 3 minus 53.54)

174. Lehigh (180)
Last week: No game
This week: 9/26 vs. No. 176 Princeton, 12:30 p.m. (Service Electric 2)
Sagarin predicts: Lehigh by 3 (51.21 and 3 minus 50.86)

175. Lafayette (166)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 141/126 Liberty, 19-13
This week: 9/26 vs. No. 156 Penn, 6:00 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WBPH-60, tape-delayed on MASN)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 1 (50.99 and 3 minus 53.54)

176. Princeton (170)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 126/85 The Citadel, 38-7
This week: 9/26 at No. 174 Lehigh, 12:30 p.m. (service Electric 2)
Sagarin predicts: Lehigh by 3 (51.21 and 3 minus 50.86)

183. Delaware State (214)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 103/121 Delaware, 27-17
This week: 9/26 at No. 184 Hampton, 6:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Hampton by 3 (48.24 and 3 minus 48.53)

234. Bucknell (227)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 190/205 Cornell, 33-9
This week: 9/26 vs. No. 238 Marist, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Marist by 2 (29.78 and 3 minus 30.97)

Before we get started, I have a favor to ask.

I know many of the local small-college SIDs read this blog. I am not going to be at the coaches luncheon tomorrow, and while I'm pretty sure I'll be covered for Penn and Villanova, if anyone else does a recording of what's said please let me know. Thanks.

Now for the regularly scheduled programming.

17. Penn State (14)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 104/81 Syracuse, 28-7
This week: 9/19 vs. No. 146 Temple, 12:00 p.m. (Big Ten Network)

(Figure that one out. Penn State beat Syracuse by 21 points at home and fell three places in the Sagarin rankings, while the Orange scored one touchdown and rose 23 places.)

93. Rutgers (54)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 231/220 Howard, 45-7
This week: 9/19 vs. No. 104 Florida International, 5:00 p.m. (WFMZ-DT3)

97. Villanova (85)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 190/180 Lehigh, 38-17
This week: 9/19 at No. 151 Penn, 7:00 p.m. (Comcast Network)

103. Delaware (113)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 62/51 Richmond, 16-15
This week: 9/19 vs. No. 214 Delaware State, 12:00 p.m.

146. Temple (132)
Last week: Off
This week: 9/19 at No. 17 Penn State, 12:00 p.m. (Big Ten Network)

151. Penn (154)
Last week: No game
This week: 9/19 vs. No. 97 Villanova, 7:00 p.m. (Comcast Network)

166. Lafayette (152)
Last week: Road vs. No. 229/235 Georgetown, 28-3
This week: 9/19 vs. No. 141 Liberty, 6:00 p.m. (RCN-4 and WBPH-60 in Easton, RCN-8 for that system's subscribers in Philadelphia)

170. Princeton (173)
Last week: No game
This week: 9/19 vs. No. 126 The Citadel (Verizon FiOS in central New Jersey)

180. Lehigh (190)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 85/97 Villanova, 38-17
This week: No game

214. Delaware State (211)
Last week: No game
This week: 9/19 at No. 103 Delaware, 12:00 p.m.

227. Bucknell (221)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 228/233 Robert Morris, 26-23
This week: 9/19 at No. 190 Cornell, 12:30 p.m.