The Pennsylvania polls

Larry Eichel reports...

In the Sunday paper, I had a story about how the national polls have been amazingly constant when seen from a time perspective of three or four weeks -- despite the furors over Rev. Wright and Bosnian sniper fight. Barack Obama was a few points ahead nationally before those stories broke. He's a few points ahead nationally now.

But in Pennsylvania, there has been some clear movement in Obama's direction. The only question is how much.

The latest poll, out today, comes from the American Research Group. It has the Pennsylvania race tied, 45% for Obama and 45% for Hillary Clinton. The survey was taken over the weekend -- a lot of pollsters think polling on a Saturday can get you skewed results -- and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.

In ARG's previous poll, conducted just before Obama began his six-day bus tour of the states, the score was Clinton 51, Obama 39. So that's a real shift. Several other recent surveys have Clinton still ahead but by dwindling margins.

About the only thing that can be said for sure at this point is that it a blowout Clinton win is looking increasingly less likely. And an Obama win, which would be a knockout blow, is no longer out of the question.  

Here's the Sunday story: