Will Bunch reports here and on his blog, Attytood:
For the last week, Barack Obama has been grabbing and then extending a national lead among Democratic primary voters. But it was unclear whether that mojo extended to Pennsylvania, where Hillary Clinton's support -- especially among blue-collar whites -- appeared rock solid.
Now comes the first evidence that Obama is closing the gap in Pennsylvania: a new Rasmussen Reports poll.
The poll of 730 Democratic primary voters in the Keystone State, dated yesterday, shows Clinton's once double-digit lead over Obama is down to just five points -- 47 percent to 42 percent -- with 11 percent not certain who'd they vote for.
The poll suggests that news accounts what Clinton called -- in a meeting with the Daily News editoral board last week -- "a misstatement" over sniper fire during a 1996 trip to Bosnia have definitely hurt the New York senator. Some 40 percent of the Democrats surveyed said the Bosnia flap will be "very important" or "somewhat important" in how they vote here on April 22. The Pennsylvanians also told the pollsters that the economy is by far the No. 1 issue to them, and a whopping 91 percent said that the economy is getting worse these days.
As with previous polls, the numbers suggest resentment from the primary battle may carry over into the fall campaign against Republican John McCain -- even more so if Obama is the nominee. Some 22 percent of Democrats called it either "not very likely" or "not at all likely" that they'd vote for Obama in the fall, while the comparable number for Clinton is 17 percent. Despite that, a narrow margin -- 45-to-43 percent -- believed that Obama has a better chance of winning the overall general election. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.
One note of local interest: Gov. Rendell's aggressive promotion of the Clinton campaign has not done wonders for his standing among his fellow Pennsylvania Democrats. Some 47 percent say he's only doing a "fair" or "poor" job.
Here's some analysis of the numbers from Rasmussen:
Obama recently received a key endorsement from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey and has also spent more on television ads than Clinton. If Obama is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State, it would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama currently leads Clinton nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, while an Obama victory could end the nomination battle, Clinton remains ahead in the state and recently demonstrated her ability to finish strong in the Ohio and Texas Primaries.
LEADERSHIP: Pennsylvania is getting a good view of once-in-a-lifetime Leadership.— Tanksleyd
Rendell is making a disgrace of himself. I used to think he was a rather level-headed and knowledgeable political leader. Now, he seems like an old time political hack. It's amazing what rationalizing Hillary's campaign can do for you.— nervegenerator- Obama/Casey - This to me is the right ticket for this country. Leadership is key in this country and Obama is showing that in great strides. Here is an interesting article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ucgg/20080310/cm_ucgg/leadershipisobamasbestquality— tomoguara
Comment removed.- Clinton, her husband,and her surrogates do not get it. It is not the continued debate and primaries that is the problem. Voters are disqusted at the low level tactics, outright lies, and distortions they bring to their campaign. That's why her negativity ratings are soaring, nationally, and if she is smart, for her long-term political career, she and her husband and surrogates will clean up their act and stick to the issues. Otherwise she may find herself unelectable to any position.— bernadette
- examples of Clinton campaign lies, distortions, and low level tactics: Bosnia sniper fire; Bill Clinton praising McCain; Hillary saying Obama said he wants her out of race now and doesn't want those states to be able to vote; Rendell praising Fox News...(downright crazy); not producing her tax returns, Foundation donor lists, all of her white house papers...and denying past pro-Nafta actions, and so on and so on.— bernadette
- Remember PA - if we vote for Hillary, we are voting for Bill back in the White House to just disgraced us again like he did with Monica and the he LIED to us. PA is just too smart to fall for that and can see right thru her.— lexus817
- Ok another day another poll.....just yesterday gallup haf Obama ahead in double digits..... Whatever the polls say I hope Obama beats Hillary big time!— spike
- If the race between Obama and Hillary finishes very close, or Obama wins, it will be due, in large part, to Bob Casey. Obama / Casey 2008!— Peter of Manassas
- One thing this campaign has demonstrated is that Hillary and Bill deserve each other. The country deserves better.— John Joe
- I found an interesting article on Obama and his supposed links to terrorism: http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/31408.html— NathanTurner
- Hey Natan Turner... This news has been debunked by the Washingtonpost fact checker - http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/02/obamas_weatherman_connection.html. The truth is that while I listen to talk show host Laurie Roth sometimes, I have come to know that all the right-wing does is smear Obama and distort his statements to their own advantage. This is the reason why it's hard for us to work across party lines in this country. I'm an informed republican for Obama. Get over it...— tomoguara
- PA Jews endorsing Obama - http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/breaking/107838.html Obama Wins Backing of 9/11 Commission Co-Chairman Lee Hamilton - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a9Iwr1aLiyzw&refer=home Some Republicans Emerge To Endorse Obama - http://www.nysun.com/news/national/some-republicans-emerge-endorse-obama. sweet.... I'm an informed republican for Obama.— tomoguara
The Inauguration: Jan. 20 blog brings you coverage of President-elect Barack Obama's transition into office.
It's written by political journalists from the Philadelphia Inquirer. Send us your comments -- and news tips -- at this address.
Thomas Fitzgerald joined The Philadelphia Inquirer in 2000, and has covered Harrisburg as well as city, state and national politics for the newspaper. He was a “boy on the bus” in the 2004 presidential campaign and during primary contests in 2000 and 1996.
Nathan Gorenstein has covered politics and government in the city, state and nation for the Inquirer. He's worked in the city hall bureau, had a stint on the business desk, and once covered the suburbs. After serving as assistant regional editor, he was named editor of the "Politics" web site.
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