Archive: October, 2009
Even as major U.S. stock market indexes have risen more than 50 percent since their March 9 lows, few people are willing to go out on a limb and shout that they’re headed higher.
Few, that is, except Robert Froehlich, who recently joined Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. as a senior managing director. What’s he shouting? That the Dow Jones industrial average will close above 11,000 by the end of the year and rise 20 percent in 2010.
Froehlich, likely the most bullish man on Wall Street, has spent the last two days in Philadelphia talking to investment advisers, including those at Raymond James and Smith Barney. He freely admits to being “out in left field with my views.”
To Froehlich, the Dow’s climb from 6,547.05 on March 9 to close above 10,000 on Oct. 14 for the first time in more than a year represents a “taking back of an over-reaction” last fall.
He has five reasons why he thinks stocks will move higher even as others worry they’ve come too far too fast.
First, many companies are reporting revenue growth again, not just earnings growth fueled by cost-cutting.
Next, Froehlich sees global GDP in 2010 rising much faster than the current top-end projections of 5 percent.
Third, he believes “the U.S. consumer is not as bad off” as everyone else says.
Fourth, business spending will pick up in 2010 as corporations post higher earnings. And finally, most of the federal stimulus program will be spent over the next year.
There are two things that would cause the strategist who calls himself “Dr. Bob” to retreat from his bold call.
If the Federal Reserve were to begin raising interest rates before the mid-term elections next November, “that would hurt,” Froehlich said. The other X-factor is if crude oil were to spike into the triple digits again.
The Fed has kept the federal funds rate near zero for more than 10 months, but oil has risen 136 percent since dipping below $34 a barrel last December. Oil settled Thursday at $79.87.
Let’s give Froehlich some credit. In February, he wrote that the Dow would hit 10,000 by the end of ’09. His was a lonely call at the time, but I would expect nothing less from someone whose collection of essays, called A Bull for All Seasons, was published during the panic of September 2008.
The playbook for the pharmaceutical industry has always seemed to be: Think globally, but the U.S. is what really matters.
GlaxoSmithKline CEO Andrew Witty has been redirecting his company to think globally and make money globally.
“Less than 30 percent of this quarter’s sales were generated from what I call ‘white pill western markets’ compared to 38 percent in the quarter before I took over as CEO,” Witty told analysts on a conference call.
That doesn’t mean GlaxoSmithKline’s ignoring the U.S. In fact, Witty got the chance to brag a little: “I think it’s probably a rare occasion as CEO of a drug company, you can go on to a quarterly call and say that they’ve received three new molecular entity approvals in the last seven days.”
I count it as 10 days, but that’s a great run. The Food and Drug Administration approved its Cervarix cervical cancer vaccine on Oct. 16, its Votrient kidney cancer treatment on Oct. 19, and Arzerra for leukemia on Oct. 26.
What curse?
Liberty Property Trust vice president of investor relations Jeanne Leonard had her fastball working yesterday.
She brushed me back for implying in Wednesday’s column that the office and industrial property developer is “less Phillies-crazy that our fellow Philadelphia corporations.”
Far from it. If any company has taken more flak for Philadelphia’s professional sports championship drought from 1983 to 2008 than Liberty, I don’t know who it is.
It was Liberty’s founder, the late Willard G. Rouse III, who built One Liberty Place in 1980s, the first tower to soar over the William Penn statue atop City Hall. Superstition led some fans to link the city’s lack of Super Bowl wins or Stanley Cups over a 25-year stretch to a “Billy Penn curse.”
More recently, when Liberty developed Comcast Center, the company made sure a small replica of the city’s founder was glued to the roof. Just in case. And of course, the Phillies then won the World Series last year.
So that’s why Leonard picks the Phils to win in five games over the Yankees.
“Keep in mind that we’ve still got Billy Penn happily rooting for the Phillies from the top of Comcast Center,” Leonard wrote in an e-mail.
As Pfizer Inc. begins digesting Wyeth, be on the lookout for more announcements like the one made by Cephalon Inc. Tuesday.
The Frazer biopharmaceutical company said it hired Bob Repella as senior vice president for its U.S. pharmaceutical operations. He’d been executive vice president and general manager of the Biopharma Business Unit for Wyeth Pharmaceuticals.
Repella is actually taking on the responsibilities of two former Cephalon executives. Michael Mulholland, who Cephalon spokeswoman Sheryl Williams said left several months ago, had been in charge of U.S. pharmaceutical operations, except for oncology.
Elizabeth Barrett, who had been vice president and general manager for Cephalon’s oncology business unit, left in March to join Pfizer, where she is regional U.S. president for its oncology business unit.
Repella had been at Wyeth for 16 years, and one of the products he was responsible for was Enbrel, a treatment for arthritis and other immune system diseases. Cephalon, which sells the chemotherapy drug Treanda, has been building its oncology product pipeline.
Pfizer has said it expects to cut its workforce by 15 percent, or 20,000 jobs; how that will affect the 4,500 people who worked for Wyeth in the Philadelphia suburbs is still unclear.
But big mergers also prompt employees, including executives, to test the free-agent market. Consider this one of the first signings.
CEOs as fans
There’s nothing like the World Series to bring out the fan in everyone, including CEOs.
Richard C. Ill, the head of Wayne-based Triumph Group Inc., started his remarks to analysts on a conference call Tuesday, saying:
Good morning and good morning from Philadelphia, home of the steroid-free world champions who are poised and ready to repeat.
Guess Ill’s not too worried about upsetting Triumph’s biggest customer, Chicago-based Boeing Co., but his aerospace company also does a lot of work with Sikorsky Aircraft, which calls home the part of Connecticut that is definitely Yankees territory.
A bit more reserved, William P. Hankowsky, chairman and CEO of Malvern-based Liberty Property Trust, closed his conference call with:
I hope everybody enjoys the World Series. We will be watching closely.
Nothing like a World Series to bring out the fan in everyone, including CEOs.
On a conference call with analysts Tuesday morning, the head of Triumph Group Inc. started his remarks by saying:
Good morning and good morning from Philadelphia, home of the steroid-free world champions who are poised and ready to repeat.
Chairman and CEO Richard C. Ill certainly exuded confidence in the Phillies, even as he expressed concerns about conditions in the aerospace and defense businesses in which Triumph Group operates.
With Chicago-based Boeing Co. as Triumph's biggest customer, Ill probably isn't worried his Phillies pride will be bad for business. But Sikorsky Aircraft, another customer, is based in Stratford, Conn., is another story. Lots of Yankees fans in Sikorsky's home base.
The Web site of the Philadelphia Fund shows the city skyline in silhouette.
But this mutual fund has had little to do with its namesake for years. In 10 days, even the name will go away, spelling the end for a fund with roots pre-dating securities regulation.
Shareholders of this mutual fund with $54 million in assets as of Sept. 15 are being asked to approve a reorganization under which Dallas-based Westwood Holdings Group Inc. would absorb the assets into its WHG LargeCap Value Fund.
The reason for the deal? Boca Raton, Fla.-based Baxter Financial Corp. is getting out of the asset management business. Its president, Donald H. Baxter, has been the portfolio manager for the no-load fund since May 1987.
Another reason is that the Philadelphia Fund has been too small in terms of assets to generate “economies of scale,” Baxter writes in a letter to shareholders.
In Westwood, Baxter Financial found a firm with economies of scale. Westwood had assets under management of $8.2 billion as of June 30. Its WHG LargeCap fund had total net assets of $128 million as of Sept. 30.
Philadelphia has earned its place in mutual fund history, but it’s largely been written by the Vanguard Group, in Malvern, which manages about $1 trillion in assets.
The Philadelphia Fund never experienced much of a growth spurt, even though fund-tracker Lipper’s rankings show it has tended to perform pretty well compared to other funds with a large-capitalization value strategy.
Like nearly every stock fund, the Philadelphia Fund’s total return was negative for 2008 - down 24.5 percent. But its peer group was down 36 percent.
Today, there’s nothing Philadelphia-like about the fund’s portfolio, which had 24 big-name stocks, such as McDonald’s, Wal-Mart and Coca-Cola, at the end of August.
All that’s left is its history. A group of businessmen, led by Philadelphia banker W. Wallace Alexander, pooled about $200,000 to start the fund in 1923. According to Bloomberg News, its management was transferred to New York’s Fahnestock & Co. in 1952.
Baxter acquired control of the fund in 1989. Twenty years later, he’ll turn it over to Westwood, and one of the thousands of funds that overpopulate the mutual fund industry will be gone.
Expecting a tax-policy task force to recommend something other than cutting taxes would be like counting on the Pennsylvania Milk Marketing Board to champion orange juice.
On Friday, the Mayor’s Task Force on Tax Policy & Economic Competitiveness did recommend resuming wage and business privilege tax cuts in 2012. To close a widening budget gap, the Nutter administration halted scheduled reductions last fall.
To those in the business community, this is a no-brainer. Reduce the burden from some of the nation’s highest taxes and business is more likely to view Philadelphia as competitive.
But tax-cut opponents say that nearly 13 years of such trimming under the Rendell, Street and now Nutter administrations has not halted the job drain. Why, they wonder, would these cuts be any different?
They may not be, which no one wants to hear. But to raise business taxes or do nothing to improve the ’50s-era system we’re stuck with now is destined to accelerate job losses.
Cuts in the wage tax since 1996 saved the city 25,000 jobs, according to research by Wharton finance professor Robert Inman. Still, employment in the city had fallen to 633,461 by the end of 2008.
Chaired by PRWT Services Inc. CEO Harold T. Epps, the task force projects that the city would save 47,000 jobs and gain 23,000 more by 2025 if the city were to implement its suggestions. That would be a 180-degree turn for a city employment base that’s plunged steadily since 1970 when 920,400 labored here.
We’ve all heard these ugly statistics, and Center City Renaissance aside, we see the result every day in decaying industrial hulks and empty storefronts in fraying neighborhoods.
High taxes, while one of the biggest disincentives, is only one cracked piston in the city’s economic engine. There’s the unfairness of property assessment of the Board of Revision of Taxes. The technology used to ensure tax compliance and collection is obsolete. About 15 percent of the city’s taxable properties are tax delinquent - more than 80,000.
To its credit, this task force handed Mayor Nutter a to-do list of items that his administration could implement without the hurdle of needing City Council approval. The mayor promised a review of the report’s recommendations.
But as the private-sector members of the panel lined up for a photo with the mayor in City Hall on Friday, I couldn’t help feeling that this would be another report that will do a slow fade from memory as the Tax Reform Commission’s did in 2003.
“Thinking Beyond Today: A Path to Prosperity” is a nice enough title for a government-sponsored report. But it’s no call to action, and given the enormous budgetary pressures on the city, I’m afraid it will be easy for the political class to ignore it.
Knowing what needs to be done is important. Still, it’s only a bunch of words until Mayor Nutter actually demonstrates that Philadelphia is changing to become a fairer, clearer and more efficient place for business operate.
Read an executive summary of the task force's work here or the full report here.
Earnings
This week will see an avalanche of quarterly reports from area companies. You really will need a scorecard, so here it is:
Monday: Liberty Property Trust, Sunoco Logistics Partners, Triumph Group;
Tuesday: Ametek, Carpenter Technology, Cephalon, NutriSystem Inc., Quaker Chemical, Sun Bancorp, Teleflex, Vishay Intertechnology;
Wednesday: Auxilium Pharmaceuticals, Brandywine Realty Trust, FMC, GlaxoSmithKline, GSI Commerce, Harleysville Group, InterDigital, Lincoln National, Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust, SAP, Unisys, ViroPharma;
Thursday: Adolor, Airgas, AstraZeneca, Bryn Mawr Bank, CDI, eResearchTechnology, Endo Pharmaceuticals, Harleysville National, ICT Group, National Penn Bancshares, PPL, TF Financial, Universal Health Services;
Friday: Abington Bancorp, Dollar Financial, Dorman Products, EnerSys, Quigley, Safeguard Scientifics.
As fun as it has been to follow the Philadelphia Phillies race to repeat as world champs, there’s one thing the team probably won’t duplicate: whopping merchandise sales.
Matt Powell, an analyst with SportsOneSource, which tracks the sporting goods industry, said sales of Phillies T-shirts, hats and other merchandise are “way off” from last year. But that’s a typical pattern for teams that produce multiple championships, he said.
While it’s too early for final figures, sales of Phillies merchandise for the last four weeks are down more than two-thirds versus last year, Powell said.
After all, how many Ryan Howard jerseys do you need?
Born in bad times
One of the counterintuitive factoids I’ve heard during this damaging downturn is that recessions are a great time to start a company.
To support the notion, some experts trot out Microsoft and Apple as examples of two that got their start during the malaise of the ’70s. However, not every small business becomes a household name with a market capitalization in the many billions of dollars.
I asked Dane Stangler, a senior analyst at the entrepreneurship think tank Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, about the unconventional wisdom. He said survival rates of companies born during the last four recessions are no different from those launched during economic expansions.
In fact, the United States pretty consistently creates about 500,000 new businesses every year, he said. Most of them don’t survive to see their fifth birthday, so the nation needs a steady rate of new-company formation.
This year is likely to be no different. Stangler projects that more than 500,000 people will plunge into the entrepreneurial soup in 2009.
Quotable
To me, Atlantic City is in a long-term death spiral. They just don’t have what they need to compete with the local-option slot machines that are cropping up all over the place.
Dennis I. Forst, gaming analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, in an interview Thursday about the casino industry on Bloomberg Radio.
Far from the debate over “too big to fail” plenty of small-business owners have grumbled that they must be “too small to matter.”
Every politician acknowledges how important the nation’s 29 million small businesses are to the economy. But their actions over the last year have been aimed at the big threats to the financial system.
Yesterday, President Obama announced new lending initiatives to help, he said, “the engine of job growth in America.” But before anyone grumbles over a new big-ticket bailout for Main Street, the first impression is what’s in the works is less than it might appear, and it’s not clear what this will cost.
First, the administration wants to increase the maximum size of Small Business Administration guaranteed loans, but it needs Congress to pass legislation to do so. The most popular loan, called the 7(a) loan, is used to buy machinery, equipment and buildings. Obama would like to see the limit rise from $2 million to $5 million.
Second, the Obama team wants to provide capital to small banks with less than $1 billion in assets, and community financial institutions. To get that capital, participating banks would have to submit quarterly small-business lending plans and pay a 3 percent annual dividend to the federal government.
Lynn Ozer, executive vice president at Susquehanna Bank, said increasing the cap on SBA loans would be “absolutely awesome” because it can cost much more than $2 million to buy a commercial building.
Susquehanna is an active SBA lender, having done 42 loans through the Philadelphia District Office alone valued at a total of $19.9 million in the federal fiscal year ended Sept. 30.
But she said raising the loan limit won’t mean much if the administration doesn’t also increase the guaranteed portion, which has been 75 percent, or a maximum of $1.5 million. If only $1.5 million of a $5 million loan is guaranteed and able to be sold in the secondary market, that won’t be a great incentive to lenders, Ozer said.
Ozer, who serves on the board of the National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders, said what would help is to maintain the measures contained in the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act, including an increase in the guaranteed portion to 90 percent of a loan and the elimination of borrower fees.
With $375 million in new funding, the SBA said it was able to support more than $11.3 billion in lending through more than 30,000 SBA-backed loans since February.
Still there’s one thing that’s missing in these policy-driven fixes: Desire. There’s a lack of desire by businesses to borrow and a lack of desire by financial institutions to lend because the economy is still a hazy, scary question mark.
The “Beige Book” regional economic conditions released by the Federal Reserve yesterday noted that business lending has declined in the Philadelphia region. The National Federation of Independent Business says its members have postponed building inventories and gutted their capital spending plans. In its most recent survey, only 4 percent of owners reported “finance” as their No. 1 problem.
Tinker as policymakers may with loan programs, what will really help small business is a robust economic recovery.
Does anyone see it out there?
The parent company of the Super Fresh and Pathmark supermarket chains was blunt in what was expected to be a straightforward earnings report:
CEO Eric Claus is “leaving the Company effective immediately.”
Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. Inc., of Montvale, N.J., said it would start looking for a successor. In the meantime, executive chairman Christian Haub will return to the CEO duties he held from 1998 until 2005. Great Atlantic didn’t elaborate on Claus’ departure, but Haub said in a statement that the “current challenging economy continues to impact our business.”
Given how the deep recession has affected corporate America, it’s only natural to expect a lot of CEO turnover. But that’s not happening.
Earlier this year, a Booz & Co. study of leadership change at the world’s largest 2,500 public companies found that CEO departures fell 0.5 percent in North America from 2007 to 2008. Of the 361 “succession events” globally in 2008, 180 were planned, 127 were forced and 54 were the result of mergers.
Leslie Gaines-Ross, chief reputation strategist for Weber Shandwick, said that corporate boards seem to be following the proverb “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.” With business weak and stock prices still below their peaks, boards don’t want to take a chance on replacing CEOs and make matters worse.
In fact, the tenure of CEOs in North America reached a median 7.9 years in 2008, up from 7.2 years over the 11 years that Booz, a management consulting firm, has analyzed turnover data.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago outplacement firm, says CEO turnover for the nine months ended Sept. 30 is down 17 percent.
In September, Challenger Gray counted 105 CEO departures, compared with 140 for the same month in 2008. A review of the data since the start of 2005 shows the largest number of departures was 152 in September 2006 while the smallest was 78 in April 2009.
Challenger Gray also groups leadership changes by the official reasons provided. In the first nine months of the year, 237 CEOs have resigned, 204 stepped down and 192 retired.
In fact, according to company press releases, more CEOs have apparently died (10) so far in 2009 than got fired (six).
The most recent recession hit the manufacturing sector hard. Still, within manufacturing, there have been pockets of strength, such as defense contracting.
Over the past 52 weeks, the 18-stock PHLX Defense Sector Index has risen 23 percent compared with a 17 percent increase for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
While future U.S. defense budgets are likely to shrink, recent years have been good for anyone supplying the military. That’s why it was intriguing to see how negotiations over the new collective bargaining agreement at Boeing Co.’s Delaware County operations would play out.
A four-year contract between Boeing and Local 1069 of the United Aerospace Workers expired on Oct. 1, but the two sides kept talking, reaching a tentative agreement on Oct. 14. On Sunday, members voted 5-1 to ratify a five-year deal.
During a press briefing in September, company officials stressed that they were seeking cost certainty to show its customers that labor costs have stabilized and are competitive. On Monday, spokesman Andrew H. Lee said this deal does that. (A call and email to Local 1060’s headquarters was not returned.) Read more about the terms here.
At a time when wage cuts and benefit reductions are common, the 1,789 members of the UAW who make Boeing Chinook helicopters and the fuselage of the V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft will enjoy increases.
Under the terms of the agreement, unionized workers will receive wage hikes in each year of the contract, starting with 3 percent in the first year.
The union also won improved pension benefits and maintained its health-care benefits at current contribution levels. Those are significant accomplishments in an era of pension dumping and cost-shifting on health care.
But I also view the contract as a sign of strength by an innovative area manufacturer that employs more than 5,400 people at its 355-acre complex in Ridley Township.
After all, labor peace there is also good for more than 830 Pennsylvania companies that depend on Boeing for their livelihood.
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