Worry about the fifth starter? Why?
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Worry about the fifth starter? Why?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
CLEARWATER, Fla. -- It's the only position battle left in camp, so Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick will be the focus for the final 10 days here in Florida. And rightfully so.
But there is a lesson to take out of the competition for the fifth starter's job: It doesn't really matter that much.
The guys over at Fangraphs have been discussing the merits of how teams should handle the fifth starter slot and they have sparked some interesting discussion. Some of it is valid; some is not.
The point is this: Teams need to be flexible when constructing the back of their rotation. The Phillies have definitely embraced that idea this spring. If you look at simple numbers from 2009, it's easy to see why. Last season, only the Cubs and Rockies had five starters each make at least 24 starts. Moreover:
# All 30 teams had at least one pitcher make 24 or more starts.
# Twenty-six teams had two pitchers make 24 or more starts.
# Then the number drops to 22 teams that had three pitchers make 24 or more starts.
# Then we hit a cliff. Only nine teams were able to rely on four pitchers to make 24 or more starts.
The Phillies weren't even among those nine teams -- only Joe Blanton (31), Cole Hamels (32) and Moyer (25) made more than 24 starts. J.A. Happ was close with 23 and Cliff Lee started 12. Now obviously, the Phillies have a bit more stability at the top entering 2010 with Roy Halladay on the opening day roster.
Still, that doesn't mean the conservative approach with the fifth starter's job isn't necessary.
Yes, the Phillies are being conservative. Moyer, 47, will likely begin the season as the fifth starter. He is owed $8 million. He pitched poorly enough to be removed from the rotation midseason in 2009. And he had three surgeries this off-season. But he's also won 258 games in his 23-year career and has gotten guys out this spring.
Sure, with the way Kendrick has pitched in Grapefruit League games, he could easily be declared the winner. The Phillies could attempt to move Moyer in a trade to a team looking for a veteran fifth stater (there are plenty of possible suitors). But it's March and there is no reason not to see what Moyer can do as a starter to begin the season.
Or to sacrifice the flexibility the Phillies currently have.
That's the main point of a follow-up article on Fangraphs, which advocates a job-sharing plan for the fifth starter's spot. They advocate finding three pitchers to fill the fifth starter's role:
1. A long reliever who would serve as the seventh arm in the ‘pen and be expected to make eight to 10 starts on the year. Ideally, this would be a proven veteran who could stick at the MLB level all season.
2. A pitching prospect that projects to be a fringe No. 3 or 4 with two or three minor league options remaining. He would be introduced to the Majors in this low-pressure role over the next two to three seasons before officially (hopefully) graduating to the role of a reliable third or fourth starter. In this role, the pitcher would need to make about 10 starts at the MLB level each season.
3. A minor league “veteran” pitcher (somewhere in the 25-30 year old range) who has been unable to stick in the Majors – and still has at least one minor league option left – and can be relied on to make at least five starts on the season.
Hmm...sounds pretty familiar. It's not spot-on, but Moyer, Kendrick and Andrew Carpenter/Ryan Vogelsong could fit nicely into those described roles. Now the Phillies didn't necessarily say this off-season, "Let's share the job." But by rightfully keeping Moyer around, the Phillies give themselves options.
If Moyer isn't the guy, then Kendrick will eventually take over sometime during the season. There have been far worse scenarios.
There is a multiple reasons 5th starters do not start a large number of games...injuries, but more importantly, as a 5th starter, they are normally not that good. This article is pointless— kozykoz26- ok, being "realistic" is fine. but there is one uncalculable aspect for the decision like this. we all know that either moyer or kendrick will be very disappointed even if they are saying now "I'm ok with it". so, it's darn right Phils should be sensitive when they pick one of them. Moyer's case : He was upset after he demoted to 'pen last year, however it didn't hurt his attitude for the game. Kendrick's case : he was not on the team when others won it all in 2008 and failed to get the spot 2009. now he is really excited about getting back to rotation with his role model-roy- he's got confidence about his repertoire, also has putting decent numbers. isn't it clear we have to pick Kendrick first, then see how it turns out. I bet you moral-boosted kendrick will have more impact on this team.— illrhyme
- Hopefully Moyer's better as a fifth starter getting the off-day out of the rotation, rather than being asked to be a fourth, and expected to take every turn. That might get him 28 or so starts, around 140-150 innings, (with any luck). Not too much for him, probably.— B in DC
Comment removed.- Illrhyme is on to something when it comes to impacting the team. I have no doubt Kendrick will eventually have a more positive impact on the team than Moyer. Kendrick did relatively well in the minors last year by posting an xFIP under 4. I'm not able to predict what will come of Kendrick this season, however I can see physical changes in delivery and demeanor as well as what I read about his work ethic turning the corner. He surely deserves a shot at the 5 spot, but overall he will clearly have a more positive impact than Moyer no matter where he lands on the roster.— everything but the sixers
- "This article is pointless" No it's not. You just don't get the point. There's a difference there. Murph's point is that the people freaking out about Moyer and whether he'll get the 5th spot over Kendrick need to relax because 5th starters generally aren't very good at all and either Moyer or Kendrick would put us in fine shape for a 5th starter compared to the rest of the majors. His point is also that rotations change a lot during the season, particularly with injuries, so if we dump Moyer now and Kendrick struggles then we have no flexibility in our rotation. However, if we keep Moyer, then we've still got Kendrick in case Moyer struggles. Look at our starting rotation last year coming out of Spring Training. Myers, Park and Moyer (3/5 of the rotation) weren't even in the rotation by the end of the season.— JimG
- 2 consecutive seasons Moyer led the Phils in wins = 2 consecutive National League Pennants for the Phils. Moyer is incredibly reliable, having STARTED 25+ GAMES FOR 13 STRAIGHT YEARS! - THIS IS THE LONGEST SUCH STREAK IN BASEBALL! Don’t you realize that in 2008 Moyer had the longest streak of consecutive games with allowing 3-or-fewer runs by a Phillies pitcher since 1967? (a stretch that includes all of Steve Carlton's Phillies career). Don’t you realize that usual fan-favorite/overappreciated Joe Blanton received MORE run support than Moyer last year? Not only does Moyer have more wins than Blanton over the last two years, but Moyer also HAS A LOWER ERA than Blanton. It's just so amazing how you people bad-mouth and abandon those who produce, yet are foaming at the mouth to put either an unknown or a failed or an inferior or a less productive player in place. wouldn't you think that moyer above almost anyone else would get the benefit of your doubt? look at his entire career - he always bounces back after sub-par years. furthermore, the phillies have fared incredibly well the last few years with moyer as a consistent and winning member of the staff. why would anyone want that positive fact to change? NOW START FOCUSING MORE ON THE FACTS/EFFECTIVENESS AND LESS ON THE AGE/STYLE.— Truth B. Told
- Guys, guys. We're arguing about a FIFTH starter here. FIFTH. As a 50 yr fan, believe me, times were never better - and may not be again for a long time.— socalken
- " Worry?... Why!" Thanks Andy and Matt. That's sayin it. NO team has ever won all 162 regular season games. Braves will be better, Marlins will be better. And Phils have gotten better also. Halladay is improvement over Lee. Hamels '10 will be better than Hamels '09. Blanton and Happ are gamers. Fifth starter is a luxury -- a break-even proposition. Phils will win 98 games this year, four more than needed to win NL East, six more than needed for the WildCard.
- Matt: Poor writing at times. Watch the double negatives. You look silly. "Still, that doesn't mean the conservative approach with the fifth starter's job isn't necessary." Huh? "But the careful approach to the fifth starter's job may be the right one." Better. You're a pro, just like the Phillies are. Let's go.— eman
- Hey, it wasn't all that long ago these two guys could have been competing to be the erstwhile 'ace'. Remember Robert Person? Jon Lieber not long ago? The great Omar Daal? Shane Rawley, anyone?— PhillySubsMac
- A lot of suitors for Jamie? Highly doubt that.— Downie27
- people who come on here to correct grammar are tools and need to get a life— EndTheDrought
- I hope Andy Pettitte feels his age way before Jamie does! Mariano for that matter, too.— RichieAllen64
- One other thing I'd like to see this season is when K-Rod is trying to close out a game and the shift is on Howard he his the game winning double into the left field corner!— RichieAllen64
