What is Kendrick worth?
Beginning Wednesday, eligible players may file for arbitration. Over the next 10 days, there are two Phillies who will do just that -- Ben Francisco and Kyle Kendrick. Each side exchanges salary figures on Jan. 18.
What is Kendrick worth?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Beginning Wednesday, eligible players may file for arbitration. Over the next 10 days, there are two Phillies who will do just that -- Ben Francisco and Kyle Kendrick. Each side exchanges salary figures on Jan. 18.
A quick primer on the process: Filing for arbitration, of course, does not guarantee a hearing will take place. In fact, the Phillies have had just eight arbitration hearings since the process began in 1974. (And the only one they've lost was Ryan Howard in 2008.)
Even before figures are exchanged, the two sides can negotiate up until a scheduled hearing, which occurs sometime after Feb. 1. Again, it's highly unlikely either case this off-season reaches that point.
Both Francisco and Kendrick are first-time eligibles for arbitration. So how is a salary decided upon? Obviously, a player's stats are key. But so is service time, and most importantly, what precedents have been set by comparable players.
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Francisco ended 2010 with 3.049 years of service time. (It's written in years.days.) He made $470,000 in 2010. Remember, as recently as 2009, he was an everyday player with Cleveland. In 2011, he will almost surely see more than the 179 at-bats he had in 2010.
Thus, it's safe to say Francisco will probably at least double his salary from 2009. The expectation here is he will earn something close to $1 million or slightly above. No hand-wringing there -- a fair raise for a player who could be important in 2011.
Kendrick's case is a little more intriguing. (Warning: We are about to geek out here.)
He, like Cole Hamels was, is a Super Two. (If you want an explanation of the convoluted Super Two status, we'll direct you here.) But it took Kendrick a year longer than it should have to achieve at least two years of service time. Why? Well, he only appeared in nine games during the 2009 season.
Coming into 2010, Kendrick's service time was at 1.159. A full year of service time in Major League Baseball constitutes as 172 days. The cutoff for Super Two status in 2010 was 2.139. So had Kendrick spent 152 more days on the active roster prior to the end of the 2009 season, he would have been eligible for arbitration last off-season. This is important to remember.
So, now, here is Kendrick, finally eligible -- but still ahead of where he'd be had he not qualified for Super Two status. Kendrick made $480,000 in 2010 and will receive a substantial raise in 2011.
Here is where it becomes complicated (at least on the Phillies' side). Right now, Kendrick is not in the rotation. Granted, he could be come spring training. But Joe Blanton is still on this team. Yes, they are actively shopping Blanton, who will make $8.5 million this year and next, in a trade. But as Ruben Amaro Jr. has reminded us before, trades can be complicated.
So the Phillies are negotiating a large salary raise for a player who could be the fifth starter, but also a player who could be the long reliever or even a starter at triple A. (Kendrick does have an option remaining, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.)
Now, remember, arbitration hearings will typically reward counting numbers (e.g. wins, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts). Advanced metrics haven't really crossed this threshold yet.
Kendrick ended 2010 with 2.159 years of service time. For reference, here are Kendrick's other basic, relevant numbers:
CAREER: 35-24, 4.69 ERA, 93 G, 83 GS, 483 2/3 IP, 140 BB, 216 K, 1.425 WHIP
2010: 11-10, 4.73 ERA, 33 G, 31 GS, 180 2/3 IP, 49 BB, 84 K, 1.373 WHIP
1. Jason Hammel (2010) -- He made $396,000 in 2009 and finished the season with 2.153 years of service time. He settled with Colorado to avoid arbitration with a salary of $1.9 million.
CAREER: 17-23, 5.18 ERA, 107 G, 58 GS, 384 IP, 138 BB, 273 K, 1.523 WHIP
2009: 10-8, 4.33 ERA, 34 G, 30 GS, 176 2/3 IP, 42 BB, 133 K, 1.387 WHIP
Hammel's career numbers come nowhere near Kendrick's, but that's mostly because he wasn't a full-time starter for his first few seasons. In 2009, he was, and put up fairly similar numbers to Kendrick.
But take note of the career numbers. Not even close to matching Kendrick's. And Hammel still nearly made $2 million.
2. Ricky Nolasco (2009) -- He made $390,000 in 2008 and finished the season with 2.142 years of service time. He settled with Florida to avoid arbitration with a salary of $2.4 million.
CAREER: 27-21, 4.12 ERA, 74 G, 58 GS, 373 2/3 IP, 92 BB, 296 K, 1.250 WHIP
2008: 15-8, 3.52 ERA, 34 G, 32 GS, 212 1/3 IP, 42 BB, 186 K, 1.102 WHIP
Am I saying Kyle Kendrick is as good a pitcher as Ricky Nolasco was after the 2008 season? No, not at all. But again, remember how the arbitration process works. Especially for first-timers, it rewards not only the most recent season but also the body of work. Kendrick may have the same service time as Nolasco, but he's also pitched in 100 innings more with eight more wins.
Nolasco needed three seasons to earn his pay day. Kendrick, because of his broken service time in 2009, needed four. The way the baseball salary structure works, years and service time are both important. The more you have, generally, the more you are paid. Players are paid for past performance.
Is it right to reward that? Probably not. But in the eyes of the baseball arbitration process, one could make the argument that Kendrick deserves a salary at what Nolasco received in 2009.
3. Brian Bannister (2009) -- He made $421,000 in 2008 and finished the season with 2.158 years of service time. Kansas City and he exchanged figures with both sides settling at the midpoint of $1.737 million to avoid arbitration.
CAREER: 23-26, 4.81 ERA, 67 G, 65 GS, 385 2/3 IP, 124 BB, 209 K, 1.372 WHIP
2008: 9-16, 5.76 ERA, 32 G, 32 GS, 182 2/3 IP, 58 BB, 113 K, 1.495 WHIP
From a pure pitching sense, if we were to pick a comp for Kendrick, Bannister might be the closest. Low strikeout rate. High hits per nine innings rate. Very similar walks-to-strikeouts ratio. Almost exact home runs per nine innings rate.
Bannister requested $2.025 million when exchanging figures. Had he been coming off a better season than the one he had in 2008, he would have likely earned that salary. The Royals requested $1.45 million. The two sides settled in the middle.
Once again, Bannister does not have the career numbers Kendrick does (12 fewer wins, over 100 fewer innings). And a request of more than $2 million was not totally irrational for Bannister. And this was two off-seasons ago.
4. Daniel Cabrera (2007) -- He made $385,000 in 2006. He settled with Baltimore on a $1.825 million salary to avoid arbitration.
CAREER: 31-31, 4.75 ERA, 83 G, 82 GS, 457 IP, 280 BB, 390 K, 1.53 WHIP
2006: 9-10, 4.74 ERA, 26 G, 26 GS, 148 IP, 104 BB, 157 K
Cabrera's control issues are well-documented. In fact, he didn't pitch in the majors at all in 2010. He led the American League in walks during the 2006 season and still made almost $2 million the next season.
In 2007, Cabrera led the majors with 18 losses and 108 walks. But he also led the American League in games started (34). So he earned a $1 million raise for the 2008 season. And this was several years ago.
Cabrera's career numbers going into his first year of arbitration most closely match Kendrick's. And Kendrick isn't coming off a season in which led the league in walks.
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So what are trying to say? Well, Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies will almost certainly settle on a salary more than $2 million in 2011. Of all the aforementioned comps, Kendrick has more career wins, games started and innings pitched than those pitchers did upon reaching arbitration eligibility.
If we had to guess, based on precedent, service time and stats, Kendrick will make closer to $3 million than $2 million in 2011.
If you need to pay Kendrick more than 1.5M, let him go elsewhere. I will take an untested AAA pitcher like Worley to throw 5-6 innings every fifth day than give money to KK. His numbers are flawed since his run support is off the charts and has hit his ceiling. Get a bag of balls for him, I don't care, I would rather use 1.5 on a reliever than KK.— rvb2321
Comment removed.- zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
- $3MM? Are you kidding me? Ship him elsewhere. Keep Joe Blanton or Worley can be the No. 5 for much less...we'll see better results either way. Get some bench help in a trade for KK.— Phront_Runner
- He is not worth 2 mil. Let him walk.— alihajishank
guys like kendrick are a dime a dozen, anything over the minimum is too much. go with a young guy - worley - who has a little upside and use that money to bolster the bench.— CosmoK- I too would rather see Worley get the shot and let KK walk. That 2 mil is better spent elsewhere.— thorshuffle
- Kendrick is not worth $3 Million, but unfortunately that's how the baseball system works. The players association has fought for years for their rights and have won more often than not. I see the Phillies putting in an arbitration figure of around $2M while Kendrick asks for $3M and they settle somewhere in the middle, say $2.4 million. He's not worth the money but that's baseball. It's not always about your play and performance on the field but about how and when you came to the big leagues. It's the reverse of Desean Jackson's situation. He's underpaid as to how he performs because of where he was drafted and the weakness of the NFL players association. If he was a baseball player after three years of comparable production in MLB he'd be arbitration eligible candidate and probably earn $10-$12 million, if not be given a long term, guaranteed contract north of $60 million.— Eilex826
- I would be surprised if Kendrick would be offered more than what Nolasco was offered in 2009. If in 2011 Cole Hamels would give a similar performance to Nolasco's 2008, we would be very pleased. Also, I think your emphasis on wins is a little misguided considering that Felix Hernandez just won the Cy Young. I think Kendrick's high WHIP and his minor league assignments will strike against him. If the Phillies offered $2.4 million to avoid arbitration, which may be a stretch, he would take it in a heartbeat.— tgray83
- I'm missing the logic of how the article goes from a maximum comparable of $2.4 million to guessing that Kendrick makes closer to $3 mil than $2 mil--makes no sense and the conclusion is unfounded and counter to the evidence presented. If Phils offer $1.4 and KK asks for $2.5, they can settle in the middle at $1.9-$2 mil. I'd personally rather go with Worley and give that $2 mil to Durbin to see if he'd come back for that.— BJG83
- Let him go, he is worth the 500k he makes thats it! give someone else a chance that is making less money and will give you the same results. As long as the 4 aces in the rotation stay healty the 5th starter is not going to be that importaint. Let one of the young guns earn a spot on the team.— Tons_of_Fun
- Letting KK walk is not an option. He is guaranteed a contract for 2011.
You could, however, trade him.— Champs_2008 - Trasing him probably would not bring much of value..let him walk, you get nothing in return...keep him, pay him 1.2mil and trade Blanton...he has value on the market.. — merlinknghts
- You cannot just "let him walk." Kyle Kendrick was guaranteed a contract for the 2011 season when the Phillies chose not to non-tender him by the December 12th deadline. The amount will be determined either by an arbitration hearing or beforehand by settlement.— Phylan
- @BJG83 -- I figure that because, like I said in the post, Kendrick has more career wins, games started and innings pitched than those pitchers did upon reaching arbitration eligibility.
Will he make $3 million? I doubt that. Could it be north of $2.5 million? Wouldn't be shocking. But anything around $2.5 mil would be a good guess, IMO.— mgelb - I'm going to guess he submits $2.8 mil, phils submit $2.1, and they settle right down the middle, $2.45mil. You heard it here first. Just don't ask me to repeat this in two days, cause I won't remmeber and will probably guess some other number.— B in DC
- Let him go- I agree with the others- time to give Worley a shot. He looked good last year and it wasn't against scrub teams either— psychockey
- Thus far, Rube has done a masterful job of getting other teams to pay for his aces (Toronto last year @$6 mil for Halladay, Houston last year at $5 mil and $11 mil more this year for Oswalt,and he convinced Lee to take only $11 mil this year). He will have to taste his own medicine if he trades Blanton (he'll have to eat $5 mil each year to get a taker). That said, I'd love to see them get something, even mid-level prospects if that is possible for both Blanton and KK, and hopefully let Worley win the 5 spot. The 2012 season will be key, as Cole will get a huge payday, Lee and Howard will get $25 mil each and Halladay will get $20 mil. Can't see them picking up Oswald's or Lidge's options, and where will the money come from to resign Madsen or Rollins and get a decent closer? With the core of this team getting older and more expensive, Rube's Stanford education will be put to the test.— tommy2times
- Remember the arbitrator doesn't go by what's fair but by what's closest to fair. That is how 2.5 mil becomes $3 mil.— Joe at the shore
- Comment removed.
- You knew it was coming. Work out a 2-3 year deal and trade him. Then you get something for him and if got lucky and got 12 wins or something he doesn't get a raise to 6 or 7 million. He knows he isn't going to start right now so work out a short term deal and off he goes. Give it to a young guy and don't be afraid to trade JoeB either;.
- I must be missing something here. When Did Kyle Kendick become a good pitcher? 35-24, 4.69 ERA as his career record. The 35-24 is a product of pitching for the Phillies, if he pitched for the Pirates, I assure you he wouldn't have 35 wins. This is where the baseball system is broken. When mediocre to below mediocre pitchers on good teams like Joe Blanton are making $8 million dollars ,what chance does a small or mid market team have to be competetive? There is no way that Kyle Kendrick should be in a position to get paid $2 million dollars. He is not even mediocre. When the Pirates, Royals, Indians and Padres drop 100 games this season, you will see the true shape that baseball is in.— syddan26
- Should have traded Kendrick for Kobayashi when they had the chance.— JSaq
- Um... I'm pretty sure you can't "let him walk". If the team offers arbitration, the team is committed to the contract as set by the arbitrator. If the arbitrator decides KK is worth $3m, then the Phils pay him $3m whether he plays in the majors, minors or for nobody. If he's allowed to walk and another club picks him up, they pay the league minimum, Phils pay the rest.— Relocator
- Kendrick is barely a major league pitcher. The Phillies have to have better options in the farm system than paying him $3 million.— dblankj
- Pay him what you must but no more. And yes, the Phillies must keep him this year. That decision was made when they allowed him to become arbitration eligible. Trade Short Arms Blanton to free up some money, preferably for a right-handed hiting fourth or fifth outfielder, who can sub in center field in a pinch. Mike Cameron, in a contract year, would be perfect. But the Red Sox and Phillies might see themselves as rivals at this point.
— eman - a bag of balls— EarlKeese
- Man, hard to believe that a player can command that much of a raise with relatively little major league experience. Goes to show how all teams overpay for some kind of pitching because quality pitching is so scarce...— mikemcnhl
kendrick should pay other teams to let him pitch.— hardball- people you need to realize they cannot let him go since he is arbitration eligible. they can trade him but not release him.— pbuscio
- You can never have enough starting pitching. God forbid something happen to one of the Big Four for any length of time, you're going to need another pitcher.— Vote for Dickie
- Unfortunately for Kendrick he has not developed much if at all under the four year tutelage of Rich Dubee. He is what he is: a great No. 6 ML starter, ready at AAA for emergency big league starts. Without much of Dubee's instruction, Vance Worley already has better stuff right now than KK. Seem to remember Worley throwing an immaculate inning for Reading in 2009 when he struck out the side on 9 pitchers in one game. Last year in addition to his impressive cameos with the Phils he threw a three hit, nine inning complete game shutout at AA. Saw him pitch a 1-2-3 inning in the EL All Star game using a 92 mph fast ball, 82 mph off speed pitch and a 78 mph curve.— Dull
- You lost me a little with the eligible for super 2 last year comment stating if he was on the roster for 152 days... isn't the season only 180 days or so?
That being said, while this may be the going rate, I hope the Phils look to move him and use a younger guy like Worley. Nothing against KK, but the $2.5M could be used to help our bench!— themadhacker2000 - 0.0— tooltime
- Kendrick has been here much longer than he should have been. If he was lefthanded, you might take a chance and keep him, but a mediocre RH pitcher who won't improve by now? Let him go.— Bob1
- There is no option here but to pay him something. Again, he's already guaranteed a contract because he wasn't non-tendered, and it's not like you can trade a pitcher as fringe as Kendrick for anything when he's guaranteed a substantial arbitration range. You can't lowball him either, because he'd be stupid to settle for something that wasn't close to what he could hope to win in a hearing. There is no "letting him go" or getting out of this.— Phylan
- Ah Philly fans. Didn't take long to put this kid Worley into the Hall of Fame. Hamels one great year and Philly fans couldn't wait to compare him to Carlton. Guess Worley is the next Robin Roberts.— NC Dennis
- Ah Philly fans. Didn't take long to put this kid Worley into the Hall of Fame. Hamels one great year and Philly fans couldn't wait to compare him to Carlton. Guess Worley is the next Robin Roberts.— NC Dennis
- Comment removed.
- It's weird that sports writers write so much about contracts and such. hey are a part of the game but not nearly as important as they make out. Big deal if the Phillies pay Kendrick 500k or 2 million. It's 1.3% of their payroll at max.— ccheung
- You just can't pick a middle ground. It is either KK wins with what he wants or the Phils win with what their price was. You also can't let him walk. He is ours like it or not. We tendered him. I think the Phils have to work out something before arbitration or we will have to pay him more then we want to— pattymac3
- wow, a lot of comments here, guess fans are chompin at the bit, pitchers and catchers in 40 days or so, but anyway i think kyle is well worth keeping at a decent price, he will be a terrific fifth starter, his numbers were pretty decent last season for a 4 or 5 last year, lot's of teams would like to have that, he also is a great guy and has a great attitude for his role.— deatheater
According to Chris "Wheels" Wheeler, Kendrick is a good guy in the clubhouse, likes to pitch middle-in, and has the chance to be really, really good. Tommy Boy McCarthy beams lovingly in awe of his love interest's acumen. Given all that I say he's worth a bag of infield practice balls.- Yea a 5th starter will not be needed much, unless God forbid something happens to one or more of the big four. so therefore you may not need a 5th starter, but may need a 5th and 6th.— Tony2
- Comment removed.
- Duke - I think Ruben's going to read your comment and pull off that deal! Just like he read mine before about letting Werth walk and signing Cliff Lee with the $ saved. I'm telling you, Ruben reads this stuff to get ideas... Stanford taught him that ! And I gotta tell you, yours was the first comment that screamed out loud here. Peace, Duke. — landt
- keep kid kendrick for a little less than that and trade big joe baggadonuts with a player to be named later to the pin stripers for curtis granderson— SyddBarrett
- lots of indignant fans today. were you posting 6 months ago, too? because kyle kendrick is a lot closer in value to $2-3 million than ryan howard is to $20-25 million.— PhillyPhan4for4
- I am in total disagreement with the "let em walk" crowd. Rather, I advocate "let em strike out.' BuhBye KK— NewMick314
- 2 million is less than 8 million goodbye joe
I disagree with all of it!— dexter55- There is zero chance the Phillies would have won the 2007 Division title without Kendrick. Name all Phillies pitchers who had 3-10 win seasons in their first 4 years in the majors. Pay him for what he's done.— Doug Harrison
If the number is appreciably greater than $1.25MM, Phils should try to flip him to a team that needs a 5th starter. Take a fringe prospect or a pick and get the $$$ off the books. Worley or Carpenter will give you at least as much as KK will -- and they're cheap and under club control.— jpk- It's a crime when you have to pay someone of Kendrick's caliber $3 million a year! I have more faith in Worley to do a much better job. Keep Worley and use the money to get another righthanded bat.— dcapnova
- what evidence does anyone have that vance worley can start at the major league level? ... you know, since he's never won a start? baseball fans make unreasonable assumptions. i recall when the Annointed One was called up from AAA last august, and everyone but me maintained he was a supposed guarantee to perform better than francisco and ibanez. well he didn't, and he won't this year either. i'd much rather trade blanton than kendrick.— PhillyPhan4for4
- WoW, I can't believe this board today! KK deserves every penny he gets in Arb. He will have a great year mark my words(duh)! KK and CL have proved they can beat the Yankees and you can't overlook that. The kid will come into his own this year, believe it! No I'm not crazy.— larryv
If Kendrick is going to get roughly $2 Mill- then that really places Blanton's "cost" at $6.5 Mill. Every yahoo on every site keeps saying Phils will have to eat some salary to move Joe. WTF would Amaro do that? Only move Blanton if FULL salary moves with him and you get SOMETHING in return at least a prospect with a 'maybe' chance to contribute sometime in the future. Otherwise just keep Blanton and chase 110 wins!- rvb2321 nails it! Give Worley a chance.— spudmcfeeby
