Victorino expects to hit lower
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Victorino expects to hit lower
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Matt Gelb still here taking you through the January doldrums...
Shane Victorino joked that his first reaction upon hearing the Phillies signed Placido Polanco was, "Damn! He's a good contact guy."
And the acquisition could eventually mean Victorino moving down from the two hole in the Phillies' lineup, a spot he held for much of last season.
"What am I going to do? Stomp around the room?" Victorino said, laughing. "I'm excited for the opportunity, wherever. It doesn't matter. I'm sure I'll be hitting in multiple positions. I've done it before. It's not going to be any different than the past. I've hit second, seventh, sixth, fith, I've led off before. Again, it's ultimately up to Charlie [Manuel]. He's done a great job of shifting things around."
Is Polanco a great contact hitter? Of course. But is he vastly better than Victorino? It's closer than you think.
Obviously, the keys for a No. 2 hitter are predicated on plate discipline. If Jimmy Rollins is on base ahead of the No. 2 hitter, he might want a few chances to steal a base. So the No. 2 hitter should be able to take a few pitches.
PITCHES PER PLATE APPEARANCE (LAST THREE SEASONS)
Polanco: 3.49, 3.50, 3.51
Victorino: 3.51, 3.52, 3.75
Very little difference there. Another obvious key for the No. 2 hitter is getting on base in front of the heart of the lineup.
BATTING FROM NO. 2 HOLE (CAREER)
Polanco: 4675 PA, .303 / .347 / .415
Victorino: 572 PA, .307 / .370 / .467
OK, we're talking drastically different sample sizes. Polanco has been fairly effective from the two hole his entire career. Victorino has batted almost exclusively second since becoming a major leaguer and has shown the propensity to get on base with a .370 clip.
How about beyond that? Fan Graphs has wonderful plate discipline stats based off of pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. Through that, they can come up with some interesting ways to quantify it all.
Victorino has swung a 28 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone in his career. Polanco has swung at 21 percent. But they both swing at nearly the same amount of total pitches (Victorino: 45.2 percent, Polanco: 45.1 percent). So that means Polanco has the better eye at the plate. He's swinging at fewer bad pitches.
Polanco makes contact with 92 percent of all pitches he sees. Victorino is at 87.9 percent. And it doesn't seem like a huge discrepency, but considering Polanco has maintained a 92 percent contact ratio eight seasons into his career is impressive. Polanco's strikeout percentage (7.1 percent) is also better than Victorino's (12.8 percent).
So all of those metrics would point to Polanco being the more disciplined hitter, which is why the 34-year-old third baseman will likely start the season as the No. 2 hitter. But there is one last thing to consider: Speed. Polanco has stolen seven bases in each of the last three seasons. During that same span, Victorino has 98 steals.
If Victorino is batting lower in the order, he will be running less. Just another aspect to consider.
"Of course I'm going to have to stay the same player," Victorino said. "I can't change. There are certain parts of the game that will be a little different if I do hit seventh. The running aspect of the game; I'm not going to be running with one out and trying to steal second or third with the pitcher up. There will be aspects of the game that change, but again, I don't plan on changing anything. I'm going to play the game I know how to play."
Comments (50)
Is it just me or do Victorino's eyes in the photo look like he just burned a big bag of some killer buds? Seriously though, I think they should consider just putting Vic and Polanco as 1, 2 (in either order), and move Rollins down to 6 or 7 in the order.— jwgealt- The "Debate" should not be between JugHead and Victorino...It should involve Jimmy Rollins, whose HIGHEST OBP is .349, with a career 274 avg and .329 OBP...last year 'j-roll' batted .245 from the lead-off position with a .292 OBP...he has a .232 avg leading off an inning and a .245 avg with no one on base...he bats .263 w runners on, .270 with runners in scoring position, and .275 w runners in scoring position and 2 outs. The line-up may be better served with : 1 Victorino 2 Polanco 3 Utley 4 Howard 5 Werth 6 Ibanez 7 Rollins 8 Ruiz...Rollins may be more effective swinging for the fences because he clearly has not learned to hit ground balls and utilize his speed, plus our line-up would be S,S, L, L, R, L, S, R. Rollins needs to move down and realize he is the worst lead-off hitter in baseball, his runs are a product of the top run producers in the game behind him.— tkohl
- http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/109/sort/onBasePct/qualified/true Additional proof of Rollins miscast role at the top of the order, leading off is not only about getting on base, which he does as poorly as any leadoff man in baseball, but disrupting the rhythm of the pitcher, forcing him to alter his focus, shift the fielders, and open up holes on the right side of the infield for our left handed batters in the three and four holes...if we had a consistent leadoff presence, howard and utley would both add 20-30 hits a year by virtue of the 1b holding the line tighter and the 'shift' focusing on second base.— tkohl
- I concur-- why not consider Victorino leading off? Rollins has more power, and would be better served lower in the line=up. I like tkohls lineup.— DCExpat
- JWgealt.. first thing I noticed!! Hawaii's got it going on. tkohl.. It blows my mind that Rollins is still considered the leadoff hitter. Anyone with any sense of reason knows the Phils would be better served with Rollins batting 7th. I think Rollins is a good player, but I'd challenge anyone to give me one good reason why Rollins should continue to leadoff???? any takers??— J.H.S.
- tkohl - Polanco is a righty so the lineup would be S,R,L,L,R,L,S,R - but overall I agree Vic should leadoff and pu Jimmy somehere he can drive in runs like he wants to
- Victorino should LEADOFF and then Polanco. Bat Rollins 6 or 7.
- you guys are right. Rollins stinks. If only someone else was leading off they may have been in the world series the last couple of years. Oh wait they were. if it ain't broke, don't fix it. they don't have any problems scoring runs. their problems are with pitching. both starting and bullpen.— pbuscio
- I don't know why columnists are afraid to say what all the readers are commenting...It makes sense to have Victorino lead off and Polanco hit second.
- I don't know why columnists are afraid to say what all the readers are commenting...It makes sense to have Victorino lead off and Polanco hit second.
- I apologize, I thought he was a switch hitter, but the addition of a pure right handed bat will only serve to balance the line-up. No one on here is saying Rollins stinks, just that he is miscast in his order in the line-up. The phillies have been excellent at scoring runs, but they have also been amongst the league leaders in runners left on base because of low batting avg and poor situational hitting. Rollins' highs have been high, and he has produced clutch hits, but this should not overlook his shortcomings. Matt Stairs had a clutch HR in 2008 against LA...and we spent all of 2009 waiting for him to replicate it as he went 3 months without a HIT and had one of the worst seasons of his career. Rollins is still effective, but the TEAM would be better served with him in the 7 hole.— tkohl
- Vic growin out the hair? Gonna take some time getting used to. Everyone is right, JRoll is a run producer at heart and needs to hit 7. Charlie's always been good at doin what's best for the team and not worrying about hurt feelings, so I'll roll with whatever decision he makes. You the man, Chuckles!— Funboy
- Pbusico - Thats what is so great is about these comments so far no body has gone to the normal Jroll stinks he has to go junk. The Phils need his defense and if he wants to continue to swing for the fenses he would be better suited in the 7 hole. I here you that the Phillies have been scoring runs, but Rollins is just not as a productive lead off hitter as Victo would be be.— ktdb05
- Maybe his eyes are bloodshot from all the crying over Cliff Lee going to Seattle?— jactaid
- What other reason could the Phils have for batting Rollins 1st other than not wanting to "upset him" or some junk like that. Rollins is a great player but not a great leadoff guy. I can't understand why Charlie wouldn't make the necessary adjustments to the lineup. Someone needs to ask Cholly directly why Rollins continues to leadoff. Let's get some answers and not settle for the normal bumble of responses that usually amounts to "it is what it is" Maybe Rollins could swallow his pride, accept that he will lose a few at bats per season and bring his best effort form the 7 hole. \— J.H.S.
- Shane should be number 1 hitter planco 2 and Jrollins 6 stats don't lie— The Hammer
- Why not hit JRoll eighth? Chooch or Schneider may get some better pitches.— booman55
- I think to say that Victorino "expects" to hit lower is a big stretch. Manuel hasn't said that Victorino is being moved down in the order. As Victorino said, he's been moved around a lot and doesn't care. Polanco needs to hit #2 and either Rollins or Victorino should be moved down because they are a much bigger threat to drive in runs out of the 6 or 7 hole in the line-up. If Victorino moves down in the order, he would probably run MORE, not less. When he bats in front of Utley and Howard, they don't want him running and getting thrown out and taking the bat out of their hands. If he bats 6th or 7th, then he bats in front of Ibanez or Ruiz at the bottom of the order where they are more likely to take chances with running. Victorino could steal a ton of bases out of the 7th hole.— JimG
- I'd bat Vic number 1, and Polanco number 2. Both are patient and will take a pitch, especially if it's a ball, and will provide a good look at what the pitcher has that day. Plus that they usually make contact. JRoll is a wild swinger and who is out after 3 pitches.— 4thand10
- I agree with all you guys, but I will throw out one counterpoint just to make this interesting. Although Victorino is VERY, VERY fast...and faster than Rollins...he is a terrible baserunner. He gets picked off, caught stealing, and thrown out on the bases WAY too often for someone with his speed. Like J-Roll's awful OBP%, these are not ideal qualitied in a leadoff hitter. Meanwhile, J-Roll is a tremendous baserunner. So, of those several times a year that Victorino is on base when Rollins wouldn't be, many times he may just run right into an out...— reils
Comment removed.- who was the lead off hitter for the last phillies team to win the world series and play in back to back world series? nuff said— MIKE545454
- jwgealt, I was thinking the same thing. Maybe it's Maui Wowie or he might have gotten a hold of some Grandpappy's purple. Whatever it is it works for the Flyin' Hawaiian. I agree that Shane should be the leadoff hitter, Polanco hit 2nd, and J Roll in the 7-hole or possibly Rollins bat 2nd and have Polanco bat 7th. Anyway, they are winning lots of ballgames with Rollins at the top of the order so i'm not really all that worried about the way Uncle Charlie makes out the lineup. We were already the best team in the NL and now we have the best pitcher in the majors in Halladay, so there is a good chance that the Phils will go to the WS for a third straight year. I never in my life thought i'd say that!— Buck Dharma
- The fact that EVERYONE commenting on this agrees with each other tells you all you need to know. Rollins should be moved down in the order. He's perfect in the 6-hole between Werth and Ibanez.— mikemimbs
- I'm so glad everyone feels the same as I. Rollins isn't a #1 or #2 guy, his OBP was embarrassing last year out of the #1 spot. Jeter put on a clinic during the World Series as to what a leadoff hitter should be. I don't think I saw him swing for the fences once, he surveys the defense and hits the ball where nobody can get it. Jimmy swings for the fences on virtually every pitch, regardless of where it is in relation to the strike zone. His plate discipline is embarrassing for a major leaguer. I don't recall the last time I saw him bunt his way on, or use his speed. He belongs further down in the order. I like Shane #1, Placido #2, Chase #3, and so and so forth, Jimmy could go at 6 or 7. I think Charlie keeps him at #1 because he doesn't have the stones to move him, and tell him the truth, which is that he s*cks as a leadoff man.— BosoxJohnny
- I think everybody here is making the assumption that Charlie will be keeping Rollins in the one hole. I am of the opinion that he will look at re-arranging the line-up in Spring Training games. But no matter what, expect us to score runs the way we have been. MOST times it will be enough....but not ALL the time. Looking forward to being in the playoffs AGAIN! And just maybe we catch fire again at the right time. GO FIGHTINS— TBear
- jwgealt ..I hear ya man, his eyes do look red from smoking, but what are you smoking ? Jimmy to 6 or 7 ? Come on man...speed kills, need him to lead off or bat in 2 hole..— phillyfanyo
- Wrong debate. Victorino needs to lead off and drop Rollins in the order. Jimmy has had 2 straight years of big offensive drop-off numbers. Jimmy has more power than both these guys, so he should hit behind Ibanez.— makrom
- hell id drop rollins to 7 let vic lead off and polly bat 2nd— soliteryman
- We love Jimmy Rollins. He has been the heart of the Phillies team since they began making the playoffs three years ago. But...he is miscast as a leadoff hitter. Needs to do what's best for the team and allow a move to lower in the lineup. Six or seven, depending upon which version of Raul we get this year.— patrick125
As others are rightfully saying, why must we assume Rollins is the lead-off hitter? I'd like to see a spark plug like Victorino lead off. Rollins and his switch hitting would be good lower in the order. Our line-up is good enough to have two offensive rounds from 1 to 8 in the order. Or, bat the pitcher 8th a la Tony LaRussa and then Rollins (9th) is before Victorino the rest of the game.— burholme- I don't think Charlie is afraid to remove Rollins from the leadoff spot. After all, Charlie had no problem benching him a couple of times. Charlie is loyal to people who have a certain spot (Rollins as leadoff, Lidge as closer) but he'll make a change eventually if it's for the good of the team. Charlie earned that benefit of the doubt.— burholme
- Bat Rollins behing Howard and watch him return to his MVP-type stats. Look what it did for Jason Werth.— dri_as_a_bone
- no doubt, vic was hitting the hippie lettuce, he looks like a smaller version of Rasheed Wallace with the hair growin out.— eagles2010
- I agree that the conversation should not be limited to just Vic or Polly batting second, but the entire lineup should be looked at and played around with. The simple fact is that we have at least 6.5 players who could realistically bat in the top 4 of this lineup(Rollins, Vic, Polly, Ut, Howard, Werth and first half '09 Ibanez), so some deserving player is going to get the proverbial shaft of batting lower than they realistically should. I think a rightie should be batting between Ut and Howard, obviously to break up the lefties. What about this: Vic, Utley, Rollins, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Polly, Chooch and Pitcher. PROS: We keep good to great speed with great base running 1-3, power and RBI guys 4-6 with two really tough outs at 7 & 8. CONS: Howard batting fifth which will limit his plate appearances over the course of the season, back to back lefties at 5&6 so we’re not eliminating that problem, just delaying it & did we sign Polly to bat 7th?. I would love to hear some thoughts from the Phillie Phaithphul. Your boy, The Reddgie— The Reddgie
- Was it me? How many one out rallys did Victorino start?— bigphillydad
- It would be nice if Rollins would be a team player and offer to move lower in the lineup because I do not believe "loyal Charlie" will ever make that move on his own. Jimmy should not let his pride or high opinion of himself get in the way of doing what is best for the team. If he offers to do this and the team performs terribly over the first month or two of the season, THEN the Phillies might consider moving him back to leadoff. Ryan Howard should also consider this sort of "selfless" move when the team faces a lefthanded starter...or at least a competent lefthanded starter. He should be willing to move to the six or seven hole against such pitchers.— MrPhillie
Bottom line...Rollins isnt going to be moved in the order. Funboy...you are dead wrong! Charlie has exhibited consistantly that he is unwilling to ruffle feathers in hopes what is best for their egos translates to what works out best for the team. It has been documented that Rollins pitches a fit when talk surfaces about him not hitting lead off. Charlie needs to start not caring about individual concerns and start doing what is going to be most effective. Victorino in the lead off spot is best for the team based on past performance and we should at least give it a substantial look. The players need to be professional and do what is asked of them to the best of their ability.— Neebo- Wow, Rollins, Victorino, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Ruiz, pitcher. No brainer! Got to think outside of the box when you have an offense like that.— vnvets
- The Reddgie How about: 1 Victorino 2 Utley 3 Werth 4 Howard 5 Polanco 6 Ibanez 7 Rollins 8 Ruiz...this would give the line-up a S,L,R,L,R,L,S,R Order that would keep opposing teams' bullpens honest. Victorino puts speed on base, Utley and Werth have power, patience, and high OBP's, Howard is Howard, Polanco puts a high avg and a contact hitter to move whatever Howard leaves behind, Ibanez has avg and occasional power, Rollins is Rollins, but in the 7 hole, Ruiz can work a count and turn the line-up over. This seems like a balanced line-up with power and average at the front and back.— tkohl
- @jwgealt: big bag, killer buds. i'd like to see victorino lead off, he seems the type. polanco 2nd.— bigsteve
- I hate to be so ordinary but its sad when everyone knows that the streakiness of the Phils offense starts and ends with Rollins at leadoff. Sure, the maddening propensity of this lineup to pile up K's, when simple contact to advance the runner would do, is also a concern, but the crux of it all is Rollins. Yet he holds his team hostage because they know if they move him down, he will scream, stomp and moan. Doesn't sound like a team player to me. I'm tired of all the Jimmy apologists. I like the guy too. Like his never-say-die attitude, but that can't stand in the way of what's best for the team - which it has and will. And the saddest part of it all is that Jimmy would probably flourish in the 6 or 7 hole. The guy actually has the capability to hit 20-25 HR's, and that would be great production out of the 7 hole if he can simply bat at a .265-ish clip. He'd get more press and ESPN coverage than he does now. Victorino could be a very good leadoff hitter and Polanco batting at #2 could really set the dish nicely for Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez (and Rollins). But I try not to get too worked-up over it. Amaro will realize that he's got too many aces, oops, I mean leadoff hitters, and just ship one of them off to the first person he sees in an elevator for a free car wash and some stagnated prospects...— bm2626
- Okay, to all the responses to the lineup, let's be real. They won't move Howard out of the clean up spot. They just won't. But if they did, which I actually wouldn't be against, it would have to be Werth. The Phils do have a balance problem with their 2 stars, Chase and Ryan, batting next to each, and both being LH. Werth has the power to hit clean up and give the RH bat you need. Since Ibanez hits RH pitchers well for a lefty, he'd still provide Howard some protection behind. But I saw somewhere that Polanco should bat 5th, behind Ryan. No way, no how. Placido ain't all that. Everyone would pitch around Howard to get to him. You could also argue for a Victorino, Utley, Werth, Howard, Ibanez, Rollins, Polanco, Ruiz lineup. Has its merits, but I think its too front-loaded. Polanco's best hitting spot is the 2 hole. After that, I think its a tie between leadoff and the 7 hole. Don't think he belongs between 3 and 6 at all. But all this gets me to my main gripe this off-season. The Phils should have moved Rollins and Ibanez to Boston (who desparately want a SS and OF/DH) for Clay Buchholz (who is very available with their 6 deep, best rotation in baseball) and signed Scutaro themselves. Second, they could have included Brown in the Halladay deal instead of Taylor (saving D'Arnaud in the process) so he could play LF in 2010 with Francisco. Then your lineup is Victorino, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Taylor/Francisco, Scutaro, Ruiz. And you have Buchholz in the rotation. Oh yeah, you just saved $15MM per year for 2010 and 2011. Hmmm, what to do with that???? What was that guy's name we shipped to Seattle for middling prospects (not even their best prospects)? Yes, yes, that guy who won a Cy Young and had an ERA below 2.00 in the post-season. Roy, Cliff, Cole, JA, Clay/Joe as a roatation. Vic, Placido, Chase, Ryan, Jayson, Taylor/Francisco, Scutaro, Ruiz is your lineup. Oh I forgot, the Phils don't want you to know that it WAS about the money. FARM? Please.— bm2626
- Rollins is one of the most annoying leadoff hitters that I have seen in baseball. Even, when he's "successful" in hitting a first pitch HR, he doesn't do his job as a leadoff hitter. One job of the leadoff hitter is to take pitches and evaluate how the starting pitcher is doing (i.e. is he hitting his spots?) and then when he goes back to his dugout, tell the other players what he observed. You can't do that when you swing at the first pitch. People are saying, "How J-Roll goes, the Phils go", that's not true. It's "how the LEAD-OFF batter goes, the team goes". When Jimmy can't get on base, he hurts his team tremendously.— awl
- I agree that Rollins should bat 5th 6th or 7th depending on who's pitching. The reason Charlie bats him first is that despite Rollins' low OBP, the team wins with him in the lead off spot...and manager's will not tinker with success.— retzlaff
It seems like Jimmy and Cholly are the only ones who don't realize that Rollins needs be dropped to a lower spot in the order. Very interesting.— mkat33- There sure is a lot of interesting comments in this series of posts regarding the future of the Phils lineup. Recently when RAJ was asked about signing Werth, he commented about "making some hard decisions". I think some of those might pertain to J-Roll and maybe even Ryan. If those two salaries were moved off the books in 2011, it could free up ~$35 mil. This in turn would certainly give the flexability to resign Werth (our only stud RH hitter). Ross Gload (LH) and JMJr (RH)could platoon at 1st (both excellent D)and produce decent power. This makes for a Vic and Polanco 1-2 in the batting order with only SS position to fill. Having ~$20 mil (after giving Werth $15 mil)would surely enable RAJ to find a SS to replace J-Roll. There absolutely have to be some hard choices to be made after 2010 and I just hope the premier one is to keep Werth in the OF with Shane and then bring in Dominic Brown to replace Raul. One helleva outfield that would be.— 32streetrat
- Let's see how it goes. If Rollins gets off to a .225 start, yes, move Victorino to leadoff and Rollins to No. 6 or 7. The great thing about this lineup is we have many GOOD options, good hitters to move around. Want to think crazy? Utley could lead off in a pinch, a la Ricky Henderson. He surely could, if his hip is 100 percent. I wouldn't change our 1-8n roster for any team's, including the Yankees.— eman
- Shane should be in the 2 hole unless you enjoy seeing the double play turned. Polanco hits into a lot of double plays, thus killing rallies. When he played for us in 2003 and 2004, he hit into 29 double plays. Polanco hit into 38 double plays in the last 3 seasons alone. Shane, on the other hand, has hit into 33 double plays in his entire career. Plus, Shane can actually steal bases and go 1st to 3rd. I think it is a bad idea putting Polanco in the 2 hole.— kbeatt
- It's good to have Rollins and Vic's speed at the top of the order. Polanco is not slow and a good two hitter. Tough choice.— Don w
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