Victorino expects to hit lower
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Victorino expects to hit lower
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Matt Gelb still here taking you through the January doldrums...
Shane Victorino joked that his first reaction upon hearing the Phillies signed Placido Polanco was, "Damn! He's a good contact guy."
And the acquisition could eventually mean Victorino moving down from the two hole in the Phillies' lineup, a spot he held for much of last season.
"What am I going to do? Stomp around the room?" Victorino said, laughing. "I'm excited for the opportunity, wherever. It doesn't matter. I'm sure I'll be hitting in multiple positions. I've done it before. It's not going to be any different than the past. I've hit second, seventh, sixth, fith, I've led off before. Again, it's ultimately up to Charlie [Manuel]. He's done a great job of shifting things around."
Is Polanco a great contact hitter? Of course. But is he vastly better than Victorino? It's closer than you think.
Obviously, the keys for a No. 2 hitter are predicated on plate discipline. If Jimmy Rollins is on base ahead of the No. 2 hitter, he might want a few chances to steal a base. So the No. 2 hitter should be able to take a few pitches.
PITCHES PER PLATE APPEARANCE (LAST THREE SEASONS)
Polanco: 3.49, 3.50, 3.51
Victorino: 3.51, 3.52, 3.75
Very little difference there. Another obvious key for the No. 2 hitter is getting on base in front of the heart of the lineup.
BATTING FROM NO. 2 HOLE (CAREER)
Polanco: 4675 PA, .303 / .347 / .415
Victorino: 572 PA, .307 / .370 / .467
OK, we're talking drastically different sample sizes. Polanco has been fairly effective from the two hole his entire career. Victorino has batted almost exclusively second since becoming a major leaguer and has shown the propensity to get on base with a .370 clip.
How about beyond that? Fan Graphs has wonderful plate discipline stats based off of pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. Through that, they can come up with some interesting ways to quantify it all.
Victorino has swung a 28 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone in his career. Polanco has swung at 21 percent. But they both swing at nearly the same amount of total pitches (Victorino: 45.2 percent, Polanco: 45.1 percent). So that means Polanco has the better eye at the plate. He's swinging at fewer bad pitches.
Polanco makes contact with 92 percent of all pitches he sees. Victorino is at 87.9 percent. And it doesn't seem like a huge discrepency, but considering Polanco has maintained a 92 percent contact ratio eight seasons into his career is impressive. Polanco's strikeout percentage (7.1 percent) is also better than Victorino's (12.8 percent).
So all of those metrics would point to Polanco being the more disciplined hitter, which is why the 34-year-old third baseman will likely start the season as the No. 2 hitter. But there is one last thing to consider: Speed. Polanco has stolen seven bases in each of the last three seasons. During that same span, Victorino has 98 steals.
If Victorino is batting lower in the order, he will be running less. Just another aspect to consider.
"Of course I'm going to have to stay the same player," Victorino said. "I can't change. There are certain parts of the game that will be a little different if I do hit seventh. The running aspect of the game; I'm not going to be running with one out and trying to steal second or third with the pitcher up. There will be aspects of the game that change, but again, I don't plan on changing anything. I'm going to play the game I know how to play."
As others are rightfully saying, why must we assume Rollins is the lead-off hitter? I'd like to see a spark plug like Victorino lead off. Rollins and his switch hitting would be good lower in the order. Our line-up is good enough to have two offensive rounds from 1 to 8 in the order. Or, bat the pitcher 8th a la Tony LaRussa and then Rollins (9th) is before Victorino the rest of the game.— burholme- I don't think Charlie is afraid to remove Rollins from the leadoff spot. After all, Charlie had no problem benching him a couple of times. Charlie is loyal to people who have a certain spot (Rollins as leadoff, Lidge as closer) but he'll make a change eventually if it's for the good of the team. Charlie earned that benefit of the doubt.— burholme
Bat Rollins behing Howard and watch him return to his MVP-type stats. Look what it did for Jason Werth.— dri_as_a_bone- no doubt, vic was hitting the hippie lettuce, he looks like a smaller version of Rasheed Wallace with the hair growin out.— eagles2010
- I agree that the conversation should not be limited to just Vic or Polly batting second, but the entire lineup should be looked at and played around with. The simple fact is that we have at least 6.5 players who could realistically bat in the top 4 of this lineup(Rollins, Vic, Polly, Ut, Howard, Werth and first half '09 Ibanez), so some deserving player is going to get the proverbial shaft of batting lower than they realistically should. I think a rightie should be batting between Ut and Howard, obviously to break up the lefties. What about this: Vic, Utley, Rollins, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Polly, Chooch and Pitcher. PROS: We keep good to great speed with great base running 1-3, power and RBI guys 4-6 with two really tough outs at 7 & 8. CONS: Howard batting fifth which will limit his plate appearances over the course of the season, back to back lefties at 5&6 so we’re not eliminating that problem, just delaying it & did we sign Polly to bat 7th?. I would love to hear some thoughts from the Phillie Phaithphul. Your boy, The Reddgie— The Reddgie
- Was it me? How many one out rallys did Victorino start?— bigphillydad
- It would be nice if Rollins would be a team player and offer to move lower in the lineup because I do not believe "loyal Charlie" will ever make that move on his own. Jimmy should not let his pride or high opinion of himself get in the way of doing what is best for the team. If he offers to do this and the team performs terribly over the first month or two of the season, THEN the Phillies might consider moving him back to leadoff. Ryan Howard should also consider this sort of "selfless" move when the team faces a lefthanded starter...or at least a competent lefthanded starter. He should be willing to move to the six or seven hole against such pitchers.— MrPhillie
Bottom line...Rollins isnt going to be moved in the order. Funboy...you are dead wrong! Charlie has exhibited consistantly that he is unwilling to ruffle feathers in hopes what is best for their egos translates to what works out best for the team. It has been documented that Rollins pitches a fit when talk surfaces about him not hitting lead off. Charlie needs to start not caring about individual concerns and start doing what is going to be most effective. Victorino in the lead off spot is best for the team based on past performance and we should at least give it a substantial look. The players need to be professional and do what is asked of them to the best of their ability.— Neebo- Wow, Rollins, Victorino, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Ruiz, pitcher. No brainer! Got to think outside of the box when you have an offense like that.— vnvets
- The Reddgie How about: 1 Victorino 2 Utley 3 Werth 4 Howard 5 Polanco 6 Ibanez 7 Rollins 8 Ruiz...this would give the line-up a S,L,R,L,R,L,S,R Order that would keep opposing teams' bullpens honest. Victorino puts speed on base, Utley and Werth have power, patience, and high OBP's, Howard is Howard, Polanco puts a high avg and a contact hitter to move whatever Howard leaves behind, Ibanez has avg and occasional power, Rollins is Rollins, but in the 7 hole, Ruiz can work a count and turn the line-up over. This seems like a balanced line-up with power and average at the front and back.— tkohl
- @jwgealt: big bag, killer buds. i'd like to see victorino lead off, he seems the type. polanco 2nd.— bigsteve
- I hate to be so ordinary but its sad when everyone knows that the streakiness of the Phils offense starts and ends with Rollins at leadoff. Sure, the maddening propensity of this lineup to pile up K's, when simple contact to advance the runner would do, is also a concern, but the crux of it all is Rollins. Yet he holds his team hostage because they know if they move him down, he will scream, stomp and moan. Doesn't sound like a team player to me. I'm tired of all the Jimmy apologists. I like the guy too. Like his never-say-die attitude, but that can't stand in the way of what's best for the team - which it has and will. And the saddest part of it all is that Jimmy would probably flourish in the 6 or 7 hole. The guy actually has the capability to hit 20-25 HR's, and that would be great production out of the 7 hole if he can simply bat at a .265-ish clip. He'd get more press and ESPN coverage than he does now. Victorino could be a very good leadoff hitter and Polanco batting at #2 could really set the dish nicely for Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez (and Rollins). But I try not to get too worked-up over it. Amaro will realize that he's got too many aces, oops, I mean leadoff hitters, and just ship one of them off to the first person he sees in an elevator for a free car wash and some stagnated prospects...— bm2626
- Okay, to all the responses to the lineup, let's be real. They won't move Howard out of the clean up spot. They just won't. But if they did, which I actually wouldn't be against, it would have to be Werth. The Phils do have a balance problem with their 2 stars, Chase and Ryan, batting next to each, and both being LH. Werth has the power to hit clean up and give the RH bat you need. Since Ibanez hits RH pitchers well for a lefty, he'd still provide Howard some protection behind. But I saw somewhere that Polanco should bat 5th, behind Ryan. No way, no how. Placido ain't all that. Everyone would pitch around Howard to get to him. You could also argue for a Victorino, Utley, Werth, Howard, Ibanez, Rollins, Polanco, Ruiz lineup. Has its merits, but I think its too front-loaded. Polanco's best hitting spot is the 2 hole. After that, I think its a tie between leadoff and the 7 hole. Don't think he belongs between 3 and 6 at all. But all this gets me to my main gripe this off-season. The Phils should have moved Rollins and Ibanez to Boston (who desparately want a SS and OF/DH) for Clay Buchholz (who is very available with their 6 deep, best rotation in baseball) and signed Scutaro themselves. Second, they could have included Brown in the Halladay deal instead of Taylor (saving D'Arnaud in the process) so he could play LF in 2010 with Francisco. Then your lineup is Victorino, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Taylor/Francisco, Scutaro, Ruiz. And you have Buchholz in the rotation. Oh yeah, you just saved $15MM per year for 2010 and 2011. Hmmm, what to do with that???? What was that guy's name we shipped to Seattle for middling prospects (not even their best prospects)? Yes, yes, that guy who won a Cy Young and had an ERA below 2.00 in the post-season. Roy, Cliff, Cole, JA, Clay/Joe as a roatation. Vic, Placido, Chase, Ryan, Jayson, Taylor/Francisco, Scutaro, Ruiz is your lineup. Oh I forgot, the Phils don't want you to know that it WAS about the money. FARM? Please.— bm2626
- Rollins is one of the most annoying leadoff hitters that I have seen in baseball. Even, when he's "successful" in hitting a first pitch HR, he doesn't do his job as a leadoff hitter. One job of the leadoff hitter is to take pitches and evaluate how the starting pitcher is doing (i.e. is he hitting his spots?) and then when he goes back to his dugout, tell the other players what he observed. You can't do that when you swing at the first pitch. People are saying, "How J-Roll goes, the Phils go", that's not true. It's "how the LEAD-OFF batter goes, the team goes". When Jimmy can't get on base, he hurts his team tremendously.— awl
- I agree that Rollins should bat 5th 6th or 7th depending on who's pitching. The reason Charlie bats him first is that despite Rollins' low OBP, the team wins with him in the lead off spot...and manager's will not tinker with success.— retzlaff
