Victorino expects to hit lower
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Victorino expects to hit lower
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Matt Gelb still here taking you through the January doldrums...
Shane Victorino joked that his first reaction upon hearing the Phillies signed Placido Polanco was, "Damn! He's a good contact guy."
And the acquisition could eventually mean Victorino moving down from the two hole in the Phillies' lineup, a spot he held for much of last season.
"What am I going to do? Stomp around the room?" Victorino said, laughing. "I'm excited for the opportunity, wherever. It doesn't matter. I'm sure I'll be hitting in multiple positions. I've done it before. It's not going to be any different than the past. I've hit second, seventh, sixth, fith, I've led off before. Again, it's ultimately up to Charlie [Manuel]. He's done a great job of shifting things around."
Is Polanco a great contact hitter? Of course. But is he vastly better than Victorino? It's closer than you think.
Obviously, the keys for a No. 2 hitter are predicated on plate discipline. If Jimmy Rollins is on base ahead of the No. 2 hitter, he might want a few chances to steal a base. So the No. 2 hitter should be able to take a few pitches.
PITCHES PER PLATE APPEARANCE (LAST THREE SEASONS)
Polanco: 3.49, 3.50, 3.51
Victorino: 3.51, 3.52, 3.75
Very little difference there. Another obvious key for the No. 2 hitter is getting on base in front of the heart of the lineup.
BATTING FROM NO. 2 HOLE (CAREER)
Polanco: 4675 PA, .303 / .347 / .415
Victorino: 572 PA, .307 / .370 / .467
OK, we're talking drastically different sample sizes. Polanco has been fairly effective from the two hole his entire career. Victorino has batted almost exclusively second since becoming a major leaguer and has shown the propensity to get on base with a .370 clip.
How about beyond that? Fan Graphs has wonderful plate discipline stats based off of pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. Through that, they can come up with some interesting ways to quantify it all.
Victorino has swung a 28 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone in his career. Polanco has swung at 21 percent. But they both swing at nearly the same amount of total pitches (Victorino: 45.2 percent, Polanco: 45.1 percent). So that means Polanco has the better eye at the plate. He's swinging at fewer bad pitches.
Polanco makes contact with 92 percent of all pitches he sees. Victorino is at 87.9 percent. And it doesn't seem like a huge discrepency, but considering Polanco has maintained a 92 percent contact ratio eight seasons into his career is impressive. Polanco's strikeout percentage (7.1 percent) is also better than Victorino's (12.8 percent).
So all of those metrics would point to Polanco being the more disciplined hitter, which is why the 34-year-old third baseman will likely start the season as the No. 2 hitter. But there is one last thing to consider: Speed. Polanco has stolen seven bases in each of the last three seasons. During that same span, Victorino has 98 steals.
If Victorino is batting lower in the order, he will be running less. Just another aspect to consider.
"Of course I'm going to have to stay the same player," Victorino said. "I can't change. There are certain parts of the game that will be a little different if I do hit seventh. The running aspect of the game; I'm not going to be running with one out and trying to steal second or third with the pitcher up. There will be aspects of the game that change, but again, I don't plan on changing anything. I'm going to play the game I know how to play."
Shane should be number 1 hitter planco 2 and Jrollins 6 stats don't lie— The Hammer- Why not hit JRoll eighth? Chooch or Schneider may get some better pitches.— booman55
- I think to say that Victorino "expects" to hit lower is a big stretch. Manuel hasn't said that Victorino is being moved down in the order. As Victorino said, he's been moved around a lot and doesn't care. Polanco needs to hit #2 and either Rollins or Victorino should be moved down because they are a much bigger threat to drive in runs out of the 6 or 7 hole in the line-up. If Victorino moves down in the order, he would probably run MORE, not less. When he bats in front of Utley and Howard, they don't want him running and getting thrown out and taking the bat out of their hands. If he bats 6th or 7th, then he bats in front of Ibanez or Ruiz at the bottom of the order where they are more likely to take chances with running. Victorino could steal a ton of bases out of the 7th hole.— JimG
- I'd bat Vic number 1, and Polanco number 2. Both are patient and will take a pitch, especially if it's a ball, and will provide a good look at what the pitcher has that day. Plus that they usually make contact. JRoll is a wild swinger and who is out after 3 pitches.— 4thand10
- I agree with all you guys, but I will throw out one counterpoint just to make this interesting. Although Victorino is VERY, VERY fast...and faster than Rollins...he is a terrible baserunner. He gets picked off, caught stealing, and thrown out on the bases WAY too often for someone with his speed. Like J-Roll's awful OBP%, these are not ideal qualitied in a leadoff hitter. Meanwhile, J-Roll is a tremendous baserunner. So, of those several times a year that Victorino is on base when Rollins wouldn't be, many times he may just run right into an out...— reils
Comment removed.- who was the lead off hitter for the last phillies team to win the world series and play in back to back world series? nuff said— MIKE545454
- jwgealt, I was thinking the same thing. Maybe it's Maui Wowie or he might have gotten a hold of some Grandpappy's purple. Whatever it is it works for the Flyin' Hawaiian. I agree that Shane should be the leadoff hitter, Polanco hit 2nd, and J Roll in the 7-hole or possibly Rollins bat 2nd and have Polanco bat 7th. Anyway, they are winning lots of ballgames with Rollins at the top of the order so i'm not really all that worried about the way Uncle Charlie makes out the lineup. We were already the best team in the NL and now we have the best pitcher in the majors in Halladay, so there is a good chance that the Phils will go to the WS for a third straight year. I never in my life thought i'd say that!— Buck Dharma
- The fact that EVERYONE commenting on this agrees with each other tells you all you need to know. Rollins should be moved down in the order. He's perfect in the 6-hole between Werth and Ibanez.— mikemimbs
- I'm so glad everyone feels the same as I. Rollins isn't a #1 or #2 guy, his OBP was embarrassing last year out of the #1 spot. Jeter put on a clinic during the World Series as to what a leadoff hitter should be. I don't think I saw him swing for the fences once, he surveys the defense and hits the ball where nobody can get it. Jimmy swings for the fences on virtually every pitch, regardless of where it is in relation to the strike zone. His plate discipline is embarrassing for a major leaguer. I don't recall the last time I saw him bunt his way on, or use his speed. He belongs further down in the order. I like Shane #1, Placido #2, Chase #3, and so and so forth, Jimmy could go at 6 or 7. I think Charlie keeps him at #1 because he doesn't have the stones to move him, and tell him the truth, which is that he s*cks as a leadoff man.— BosoxJohnny
- I think everybody here is making the assumption that Charlie will be keeping Rollins in the one hole. I am of the opinion that he will look at re-arranging the line-up in Spring Training games. But no matter what, expect us to score runs the way we have been. MOST times it will be enough....but not ALL the time. Looking forward to being in the playoffs AGAIN! And just maybe we catch fire again at the right time. GO FIGHTINS— TBear
- jwgealt ..I hear ya man, his eyes do look red from smoking, but what are you smoking ? Jimmy to 6 or 7 ? Come on man...speed kills, need him to lead off or bat in 2 hole..— phillyfanyo
- Wrong debate. Victorino needs to lead off and drop Rollins in the order. Jimmy has had 2 straight years of big offensive drop-off numbers. Jimmy has more power than both these guys, so he should hit behind Ibanez.— makrom
- hell id drop rollins to 7 let vic lead off and polly bat 2nd— soliteryman
- We love Jimmy Rollins. He has been the heart of the Phillies team since they began making the playoffs three years ago. But...he is miscast as a leadoff hitter. Needs to do what's best for the team and allow a move to lower in the lineup. Six or seven, depending upon which version of Raul we get this year.— patrick125
