Victorino as MVP?
CINCINNATI — No one will say Shane Victorino is the National League MVP, because he isn't. But the fact that we're even having this discussion says enough.
Victorino as MVP?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
CINCINNATI — No one will say Shane Victorino is the National League MVP, because he isn't. But the fact that we're even having this discussion says enough.
Victorino is unquestionably the Phillies' best hitter through 130 games in 2011. In the National League, he ranks eighth in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage and ninth in slugging percentage. He is second in the league with 14 triples, a career-high. He has 15 home runs and will probably set a career-high there, too.
He missed 27 games because of two disabled list stints.
And he should still appear on a majority of MVP ballots this fall. Yes, Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and others are arguably having better seasons.
Voters are asked to pick the top 10 players in each league. Right now, Shane Victorino is one of them. That's an offensive transformation no one could have foreseen.
While Cole Hamels' triumphant return was the most important story of Monday's 3-2 victory, Victorino's home run ensured victory. It was easily a footnote because Victorino is having that kind of a season. His key hits are expected — even after momentary failure.
"The guy ends up striking him out," Charlie Manuel said, "threw him a couple of breaking balls on 3-1 and we had guys in scoring position. He swung at one and then took strike three. Then he comes back, gets a breaking ball and hits a home run.
"He has been getting a lot of extra-base hits and it seems like every one of them is big at the moment. He’s been getting some big hits for us."
The most impressive thing about Victorino's 2011, as I noted in a story a few weeks back, is how his game has evolved.
| Year | Age | Tm | PA | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 25 | PHI | 462 | 1.3% | 11.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 2.25 | 0.80 |
| 2007 | 26 | PHI | 510 | 2.4% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 1.68 | 0.90 |
| 2008 | 27 | PHI | 627 | 2.2% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 1.53 | 0.81 |
| 2009 | 28 | PHI | 694 | 1.4% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 1.18 | 0.84 |
| 2010 | 29 | PHI | 648 | 2.8% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 1.49 | 0.80 |
| 2011 | 30 | PHI | 451 | 3.3% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 1.10 | 0.74 |
His strikeouts are down. His walks are up. He's hitting for more power, but not just home runs — the bad pattern that marred his 2010 season.
One more table:
| Hits | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Age | Tm | H | Inf | Bnt |
| 2006 | 25 | PHI | 119 | 14 | 2 |
| 2007 | 26 | PHI | 128 | 23 | 2 |
| 2008 | 27 | PHI | 167 | 36 | 9 |
| 2009 | 28 | PHI | 181 | 29 | 0 |
| 2010 | 29 | PHI | 152 | 18 | 2 |
| 2011 | 30 | PHI | 123 | 8 | 0 |
His career arc has followed common sense. As a major-leaguer in his early stages, Victorino relied heavily on his speed. In 2008, when he hit a then-career-best .293, 21.6 percent of his hits were on the infield. It was his game.
Now he's 30 and his power has filled out. Only 6.5 percent of his hits are of the infield variety. His 11.1 percent extra-base hits ranks eighth in the league (ahead of such names as Kemp, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard). It required 2010 for Victorino to realize line drives are more valuable than trying to hit long balls. With age came maturity both mentally and physically.
For that, these Phillies are quite thankful. And the rest of baseball is probably about to notice.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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vvv, let me help you with your English comprehension and arithmetic. There will be a total of 60 writers, each putting 10 NL and 10 AL players on their ballot. It's safe to assume that all 60 will have the 6 obvious candidates in common on their ballots (Kemp, Fielder, Upton, Tulowitzsky, Votto, Braun), and it's very safe to say that each voter will select his top 3 candidates from among those 6. A few will go with Halladay, Howard, C-Gon, Cain, Freak, Ian Kennedy, Bruce, Reyes, A. Ramirez or others. But nobody - nobody - will rank Victorino among the top 3 players in the national league. I'd be surprised if anybody ranked him in the top 8. So, that's your "conversation" and Vic isn't in it, any more than Jefferson is in the conversation as the first president because he was among the top 3.— 1980- If he keeps up this performance through the rest of the season, its is robbery if they don't give it to him!— GigantiSP
- 1980, are you watching this year's season? The Freak currently has a losing record. Howard is batting .249 and is striking out quite a bit. Cain is playing well, but he won't even be a serious Cy Young contender. Shane is one of the tops in WAR (Wins above Replacement) which means he gives you the most wins just by putting him on the field. Howard, who I love but hasn't be who he was since 2008 really, is not in the top when it comes to WAR. Isn't Wins Above Replacement really a measure of MVP. Therefore, Shane has to be in the conversation. This isn't 1980, Sabermetrics matter to many of the voters now.— atsipras
- Team MVP? YES League MVP? Not even close!— GreenOrangeRedBlueBlood
- YES— tpizza
- First sentence: No one will say Shane Victorino is the National League MVP, because he isn't.
The question is whether Vic is the PHILLIES MVP or not. Votto, Braun, etc. are off the point.— tpizza - good player having a good year BUT not an MVP YEAR.— MIKEI
- Are you people all crazy? He is the best hitter on a mediocre hitting team. The reason the Phils are the best team in baseball has very little to do with the hitting and mostly to do with the pitching. Shane is having a nice season, but get serious with the mvp talk. Not even close.— kozykoz26
- Chase Utley = God... Victorino = MVP.— GigantiSP
- Oh yeah and the only "Dream Team" in Philadelphia is the Phillies... The Eagles are 2nd rate compared to the Phillies.— GigantiSP
- The only NL players having clearly better and more MVP-worthy seasons than Victorino are, in this order: Braun...that's it. The other guys having good seasons on bad teams (Kemp, Votto, and Tulowitzki)would definitely be rated higher than Victorino if they were headed for the playoffs but sorry that's not the case. The MVP should go to the best player on team (anyone remember when Kirk Gibson won with the Dodgers??) Statistics speak loudly but the sound is muffled when they are emitted from a mountain of losses. Victorino has the talent more importantly the heart to lead the best team in baseball, a team loaded with All Stars. He's played roughly 20 less games than his teammates yet still leads the team in runs scored...that alone should tell you how valuable this guy is. Bruan is the MVP but Victorino is in the conversation, and rightfully so.— sedale
- atsipras, I only said that some voters will throw in guys like Howard and Lincecum, just like one of the NYC writers is guaranteed to put Reyes in the top 6 or so. I didn't say any of them deserves to be mentioned. I'm one of the people who thinks that there's an element of bogus to WAR, although I'm not saying by any means that people who like it are dead wrong; I'm not knowledgeable enough about it. I like sabremetrics in general and appreciate their value. I'm just a little skeptical about WAR, which is a stat that tells you that Vic is one of the best players in the league even though he's not in the top 5 in batting average. Or hits. Or runs. or home runs. Or runs batted in. Or doubles. Or walks. Or stolen bases. Or slugging percentage. Or On-base percentage. Or putouts. Or assists. (Fielding percentage, obviously, is stellar.) Interesting to note that Vic is #5 currently in NL WAR. The other top 6? Votto, Kemp, Tulo, Upton, Braun. Difference is, those guys are all league leaders in the other offensive categories too.— 1980
- there has to be some element tied to the teams success and while those offensive stats are valued, to me they hold less value when earned on a non-playoff team. There are plenty of folks that put up gaudy stats on terrible teams that I wouldn't consider MVP. If the MVP isn't in the big show, how valuable were they really? — xlGmanlx
- there has to be some element tied to the teams success and while those offensive stats are valued, to me they hold less value when earned on a non-playoff team. There are plenty of folks that put up gaudy stats on terrible teams that I wouldn't consider MVP. If the MVP isn't in the big show, how valuable were they really? — xlGmanlx
- Kudos to Shane! MVP surely is not Downly I mean Utley.— cynical1
