Three questions for September
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — With 87 wins, a team record in clear sight, and the postseason all but assured, Charlie Manuel was asked what he'd like to see his team accomplish in the final month.
Three questions for September
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — With 87 wins, a team record in clear sight, and the postseason all but assured, Charlie Manuel was asked what he'd like to see his team accomplish in the final month.
"Win some more," Manuel said.
They will probably do that. The magic number is 21 to clinch the division and 12 to clinch a postseason berth. Along the way, there are some (minor) questions to be answered. Here are three of mine:
1. Who is the fourth starter?
Friday night's game could go a decent way in determining that. So long as Roy Oswalt is healthy, he'll be the Phillies' fourth starter in the postseason. (They may not need one until the National League Championship Series.) But if Oswalt cannot locate or throw his fastball with the life he usually has, there will be an element of doubt. Oswalt was spectacular against the Nationals, and then painfully mediocre against the Marlins. He has another shot at Florida.
Vance Worley has shown flaws in the last few weeks, and the Phillies would certainly prefer a healthy Oswalt. September will determine that.
2. Can Brad Lidge be trusted?
In the grand scheme of things, Lidge's spot on this team is not quite important. So long as everything goes to plan, the Phillies will need (at best) three dependable relievers in the postseason. Ryan Madson, Antonio Bastardo and Mike Stutes appear to currently fill those roles for Charlie Manuel. David Herndon has not allowed a run since the middle of July (13 inning scoreless streak) and absent a horrid September, he's on the staff in October.
But it would be difficult to see Manuel leaving Lidge, who is making $11.5 million in 2011, off the roster. He speaks highly of his former closer at every opportunity. The numbers show Lidge has been anything but trustworthy. He's struck out 13 in 10 1/3 innings but walked 10. Each time he shows flashes with his nasty slider, his control fails him.
3. Who are the top pinch-hitters?
Manuel said he wanted to use John Bowker on Thursday but opted for Ross Gload when he needed a pinch-hitter late in the game. Gload delivered with only his second hit in 18 at-bats. Then he was pinch-run for by John Mayberry Jr.
If the Phillies clinch early, according to plan, there will be time for the bench players to sharpen their skills with regular at-bats. Manuel has always employed a pecking order of pinch-hitters. He'll hold back his best guy for the later innings. So if the Phillies need a crucial at-bat in the sixth or seventh inning, who is it?
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There are plenty of other issues out there. What are your questions for the final month?
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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“Who is the Phillies 4th Starter? … the Phillies would certainly prefer a healthy Oswalt [over Worley]”. Thanks Matt. If Oswalt is healthy, I actually thought they would prefer an unproven rookie over one of the league’s best pitchers of the last decade, a guy with a 5-0 career playoff record as a starter and the best career ERA on the staff.— JesseH- David Herndon might be a better 7th inning option right now that Stutes or Lidge. I think Stutes has hit the wall a little.....— HAROLD Eskin
Comment removed.- Frankly, this thing seems like just one more of those "worry pieces" the philly.com hacks spew when they have nothing worth writing. Fourth starter? If he's close to 100% it's obviously Roy Oswalt. Brad Lidge has actually pitched fairly well, better than most expected, but, again, who knows. Of course, if the starters go as they usually do, then this is obviated! Pinch hitter? Who's on the bench and go from there. Most all have had clutch his and the reverse.— BEMiller
- MGelb: Agree with the posters - we have 33 days or so to go, I would worry about 1) health and injuries; 2) injuries; and 3) all of the above (see 1 and 2). Beyond that, Manuel will go with hot hand at 4th starter, and at pinch-hitting let alone any other platoon position (see LF) that he has currently going.— Dadof24
- Two reasonable comments, two worthless comments by trolls who have nothing to offer. About the usual proportion for philly.com. Sigh...— Nutburgers
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- The sky is falling..the sky is falling..the Phils are screwed..don't even bother playing the rest of the season........— Wheel
- My questions would be: How is J-Roll doing with the groin thing? Will Poly make it deep into the playoffs healthy? Will Ryan stay hot through the playoffs? Will the Phanatic lose a little weight before the parade?— antfort
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- Oh brother, the aholes are out tonight. Sarcasm and naysayers/haters. Get a life, dudes. Our Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in baseball and rolling. And maybe their biggest threat (SF), the current World Champs, may not make the playoffs at all. Lot of people can find fault with that free lunch and a bunch of them post here.— PhillySubsMac
- pro fan1...you forgot to comment on Lidge with his three walks followed by a base hit! nuf said!— Lynnwood
- oswalt is clearly the answer but his desire, this season anyway, looks like it's on E.— snakeplissken
- I agree that the Phillies have a number of issues, some of which Gelb dealt with and others of which various posters have mentioned. Fortunately, however, ALL the other prospective playoff teams have issues that are as serious or more so than the Phillies'. To wit: What are the Braves going to do with two of their top five starters sidelined or ineffective, and another an untested rookie? Can the inexperienced D-backs survive the post-season pressure cooker? Who will the Yankees be able to count on in their rotation after Sabathia, and will A-Rod be healthy or not? And so forth and so on. Nobody will be entering the post-season in a perfect position to win it all. But the Phillies, with their unbeatable top three starters and a serviceable bullpen, are very well placed.— Dave Clemens
T all the Ryan Howard hater out there... I did a bit of research and found the following on baseball-reference.com (based upon a 162 game schedule):
Player Avg. HR RBI SLG
Schmidt .267 37 107 .527
Howard .275 46 137 .561
And yet I keep hearing these whiners about Howard swinging at sliders and what a crappy batter he is. If you were around to see Schmitty, you would've seen the same thing... except he missed sliders from the other side.
Plus, Howard leads the league in RBIs and is tied for second in HRs. He doesn't seem that pathetic to me.- Look, I love Ryan Howard and I always root for him to succeed. I think that every stat geek who points out his deficiencies would agree with that, as well. The big question isn't whether he can hit home runs (sure, 2nd in the NL, but 11th in MLB) or RBIs (even non-stat heads are starting to recognize that the RBI isn't that useful of a stat). The big question is whether it was foolish to sign him through his 37th birthday for a ridiculous $25M per year with a $10M buyout (or a $23M contract) for a sixth year, which would take him through the age of 38. That is an insanely stupid price tag, especially because he has shown signs of decline the past few years and because there are plenty of equally good (and, in some cases, better) options available for less money. This price tag is going to handcuff the Phils as they move forward, and as a fan, even though I like Howard as a player, it drives you crazy to watch it happen.
Also, the comparison to Schmidt is a little crazy, in so much as you completely discount the differences between baseball in the 1980s and baseball today. Schmidt was the best power hitter in baseball that decade. He led the league in slugging 5 times, in OPS 5 times, and, remarkably for a power hitter, in OBP 3 times. He led the league in homers 8 times and in walks 4 times. Howard has led the league in homers twice, and he has never led the league in any of those other categories. Schmidt was also one of the best at fielding his position of all time, something we certainly can't say for Howard. This is why Mike Schmidt is regarded as the best 3B of all time, and Howard will never even sniff the title of best 1B of all time.
Again, I love Ryan Howard. But he's no Mike Schmidt. And that contract extension is likely going to punch the Phils in the face before it's through.— Mike P - It will be funny when the Phils win the WS in 5, and the negativity will be how they didn't sweep. LOL— verve
- Lidge is not reliable. Hasn't been since 2008. Now that he's throwing marshmellows, he's even less reliable.— 4thand10
- My question is what pictures does Bad Lidge (no typo) have on Manuel?— scootch
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- What are you doing bringing some sense to dialogue Dave Clemens. My main comcern is Charlie overworking Bastardo and Madson.— Don w
