Tender is the night
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Tender is the night
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Midnight Monday marks another mile marker in baseball's offseason, one that is much too long. Teams must tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players by the end of the day. The actual arbitration process, which rarely happens, comes in January. This is the first step.
The Phillies have five such cases, and if we are to believe Ruben Amaro Jr., the decision to offer all five contracts is easy. The Phillies have yet to confirm Amaro's statements that he would bring back all of them.
There are simple ones, like lefthander Cole Hamels and outfielder Hunter Pence. Both are due significant raises through the process.
There are arguments for each of the other three — Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco and Wilson Valdez — and Amaro has made them this winter.
Kendrick made $2.45 million in 2011 and relished the title of Best Swing Man in Baseball. OK, not really. Kendrick wants to start and he made that abundantly clear at multiple times during the season. There is certainly value in what Kendrick does. The question, of course, is how much value?
Charlie Manuel recently went out of his way to praise Kendrick, often the whipping boy among fans (and his joking teammates).
"You can bring Kendrick up all you want, too," Manuel said with a smirk. "I've got kind of warm on Kendrick because he shows me that he'll go out there and he'll pitch and he can take you in the point of the game where he can win. He's got a lot of moxie, and he's got a lot of determination."
Backhanded or not, it was a compliment and probably a just one. Kendrick bounced between the rotation and bullpen with ease. His 3.22 ERA was the lowest of his career, as was his 4.55 FIP. He made 15 starts, his strikeout numbers increased, and his stuff was better.
The justification for tendering Kendrick is probably more about what's behind him than anything else. Even with Four Aces, the Phillies used seven starting pitchers — tied for the team's fewest (also in 2008) in the modern era. (Remember 1996? The Phillies used 15 starters that season, including such luminaries as Rich Hunter, Bobby Munoz, Glenn Dishman and Rafael Quirico.)
The point is, it's hard to expect that again. Even with an ounce of doubt about Joe Blanton's right elbow, the Phillies will want a trusted sixth option. And behind Kendrick, there probably is no Vance Worley again in 2012. Dave Bush will head the rotation at triple-A Lehigh Valley. Maybe someone like Austin Hyatt could provide depth, but there isn't much to be spoken of.
It's difficult to find comps for Kendrick because of his service time situation and change in roles. The arbitration process considers a bunch of factors and not just the most recent season. The most important stats are service time, innings pitched, wins and ERA for pitchers. One of Kendrick's best comps, statistically, is Ricky Nolasco. Through their Age 26 seasons, they were close in wins (43, 40), ERA (4.41, 4.43) and innings pitched (598 1/3, 558 2/3). But the service time doesn't match because Nolasco did that in three full seasons and Kendrick in four. Nolasco made $3.8 million in 2010. Kendrick, because of his service time, could expect a similar figure.
The Phillies could also decide to non-tender Kendrick, making him a free agent, but still reach a deal at a lower rate. Then again, Chien-Ming Wang, who has thrown exactly 62 1/3 innings in the last two years, already signed for $4 million this winter. So it's probable that whatever raise Kendrick receives through the arbitration process is less than what he'd see on the open market.
UPDATE: Francisco was traded to Toronto. Here's what we wrote earlier:
He was the hero of Game 3 of the NLDS and that's about all. He did have more at-bats in 2011 than 2010 but his power numbers fell off a cliff with a 64-point drop in slugging percentage. But his on-base percentage rose and Francisco entered the season as the starting right fielder.
He made $1.18 million in his first year of arbitration — hardly a debilitating figure. His 2012 salary will be less than $2 million. One important note: Francisco does have an option remaining. So if the Phillies are to re-sign him and face a roster crunch, he could be sent to the minors.
The case to retain Francisco probably lies in the fact that the bench is lefty-heavy — at least at the beginning of the season. Say Ty Wigginton receives the majority of time at first base. That leaves Jim Thome and Laynce Nix (on days John Mayberry Jr. plays in left) as the top bats off the bench. Both are lefties.
Really, the Phillies will probably tender Francisco just because of the uncertainty put on the roster by Ryan Howard's left Achilles tendon. They are unsure how to fill first base and left field with Howard out. How long they will require backup solutions is still unknown.
Valdez was again recently labeled by Amaro as the MVP of the 2010 team. That's probably a stretch, but what Amaro was saying is that Valdez could effectively do anything (albeit at replacement level or below) when called upon. And yes, there is value in that.
The Phillies must basically choose between Valdez and Michael Martinez. Martinez, no longer bound by the Rule 5 requirements, can be optioned to the minors freely in 2012.
Valdez made $560,000 in 2011 and is first-time arbitration eligible. His salary will likely not eclipse $1 million, again, hardly a debilitating figure.
Colleague Bob Brookover took an interesting look at Valdez's numbers with runners in scoring position and found even more value than you'd expect.
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So let's say, as Amaro has, the Phillies tender all five players. They have already guaranteed $123.15 million to 14 players. Assuming that Hamels and Pence combine for $25 million in salary along with guesstimates for Kendrick ($3.4) and Valdez ($900,000), the Phillies will have approximately $152.5 million invested in 18 players.
Even if Jimmy Rollins were to earn $13 million in 2012, there remains flexibility under the $178 million luxury tax threshold. They could still sign a lefthanded reliever. The other spots would be filled by pre-arbitration players making less than $500,000 each.
Because the Phillies are not up against the wall, they are likely to opt for familiarity in Kendrick and Valdez.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
I'm a KK fan...every team needs a KK type player. He does whatever the team needs, and has been doing it more and more effectively as he grows under the tutelage of Roy Halladay. Remember his 8 inning, 7 strikeout, 4 hit performance this summer in Colorado? Blanton is a wildcard so I would like to see KK stick around and then RAJ make a decision this summer based upon Blanton's performance. If Blanton is pitching well, KK could be a mid-season trade piece for a few prospects.— Souled0ut1- Gelb - What exactly is your problem with Valdez? Your issues with him have been readily apparent for two years now. Seriously, what gives? It's no surprise that anybody other than you "found even more value than you'd expect" in Valdez (in this case, your colleague Brookover). And again, what do you mean "than you'd expect." Perhaps you should write in the first person and make it clear that it's "than I'd expect," because objective Phillies fans who actually watch the games can clearly see how valuable Valdez has been to this team (and that's not saying the guy is an All-Star or anything like that).
— Truth B. Told - great post. — bearsfriend
- Sadly, too many people focus on Kendrick's stats from the beginning of his career. His stats from 2011 are a much better indication of his growth as a pitcher. When he first came up, Kendrick basically had one pitch -- a sinking two-seamer. Since then, KK has added a cutter and change-up. Furthermore, he's learned how to throw inside to lefties. Now, he is able to confidently work both sides of the plate with two pitches that moves in opposite directions. His stuff is now very similar to Worley's. I wouldn't be surprised if he supplants Blanton as the #5 starter in 2012.— southpaw57
- inexplicable that Phils couldn't come up with the $12 million/yr that the Brewers are going to pay Aramis who would have filled a major void for Phils and was by far the best offensive option left other than Fielder --he would have been a game changer --Rollins is business as ususal -- Amaro continues to amaze with egregious errors of ommission and comission -- for next 3 years as Phills get meaningless offensive production from 3rd base and shortstop, one just will look at Aramis solid htting --similar to how the Phils the past few years just ignored Beltre and wasted time with useless ibnaez, Polanco and Oswalt,etc,- or going way back when Phils signed Gregg Jeffries for what Rockies were getting Larry Walker --clueless bozos --go waste $12 mil/yr on a relief pithcer instead of a .300 power hitting 3rd baseman— warbiscuit
- I'll touch on the fact that Cole Hamels is entering his final arb year without getting extended. Does Not bode well for him being a long term Phillie. There is obviously a huge gap on what Hamels is seeking and what the Phillies think he is worth.
Be prepared for Cole becoming a Free Agent next year.— joe smith - Warbisk - you have to stop copying posts from one blog to another. Once is enough already. And I agree with the friend that suggested you can break a smile; clean it up a bit, it's the holidays. Hope something is in your stocking - or not if that makes you happy.— 24sDad
- LAYNCE NIX? Really!— BEMiller
- Nix is a heck of a lot better player then Ben as a 4th outfielder. His defense alone makes him better and he has some pop. A new home might make him closer to his 09 season then 2011 and will likely hit 20 homers as a 4th outfielder. He will get a lot of action early on with Howard out. What do you expect a 300 hitter as your 4th or 5th outfielder? How about letting him play before you bash him — pattymac3
- The Phillies are probably waiting to see how much the arbitration guys are going to cost them and figuring out if they are going to sign Rollins or let him before talking to Cole Hamels.
Cole Hamels is a rare talent - he is one you want to sign and keep.We will need him more than ever in a couple of years when Halladay will not be expected to be so productive.— candidly - I like Kendrick. I was impressed when he upped his velocity last season into the 92-93 mph range. It shows he's doing what it takes to improve. Once again why are we questioning $3 Million for Kendrick when Howard makes $25 million next year? It's peanuts.— ronin32
- Exxon Valdez is the best SS/Relief Pitchers in the majors right now. Keep 'em.— fmMD
- So funny how things change in a year. This time last year, post-ers were predicting Blanton would be the "best 5th starter in baseball" and some wackos even had Cy Young's name in the same sentence with him. Oh, and they blasted KK -- as did Buffet Billy Conlin -- as a hack with "marginal stuff." Not so much now. Blanton goes AWOL for 2011 and KK has a really good year, no matter how you slice it. Here's what I'd do: Keep KK for sure but, if keeping Mikey Mart instead of Valdez makes it more likely we can add another RH power bat, I'd do that. Valdez is good but Martinez is still a WAY upgrade over the Eric Bruntlett era.— eman
- Please explain to me how keeping Martinez over Valdez makes it more likely to add another righthanded power bat?...Martinez was drafted rule 5 as insurance against J Roll not coming back, as the Phillies were not yet sold on Gzalvis and they thought he could maybe be a shortstop of the future...He's not in a longshot...and he's not the player that Valdez is...Valdez will probably barely have his salary doubled to 8 or 900k...Expect to see MM in LV. — bearsfriend
- The only way Cole leaves is if he wants to leave. Ruben's philosophy is you can't have enough good pitching. Cole is so young he can have security and a rich contract now and still sign a whopper of a deal at age 32 like Lee. Anyone think Ruben wants to go through with Cole what he did with Lee? Cole has already stated he wants to stay here .Cole will be the ace of this staff when Doc leaves. Cole isn't going anywhere imo and Ruben will take care of him— pattymac3
