Posted: Thursday, March 6, 2008, 6:44 AM | 13 comments |
 
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Ryan Howard struck out 199 times last year, which set a major-league record.

But so what?

It's really not that big a deal. I mean, would it better if he struck out 175 times? Sure. But strikeouts are not the scourge of the earth like many would have you believe. They're not baseball's worst sin. First, there is absolutely no correlation between a team's strikeout rate and runs scored. None. Zero. Zilch. So the next time somebody says the Phillies have too many strikeouts in their lineup, well ... Second, strikeouts typically are a byproduct of power and walks, so you take the good with the bad. And I think most Phillies fans would rather have a guy who strikes out a lot, but hits home runs and knocks in a lot of runs than somebody who "puts the ball in play," but couldn't produce a run to save his life.

"When we're exposed to baseball growing up, when we play the game, putting the ball in play is important because the defenses are so bad that if you can just make contact and put the ball in play there's a good chance you're going to get on base," Baseball Prospectus analyst Joe Sheehan said. "At the professional level, defenses are so good that the difference between putting the ball in play and not doing it for routine plays is just not that great.

"You have to be focused on runs. How you get there doesn't actually matter. The shape of an offense doesn't actually matter. It's just a matter of how many runs. You see this throughout baseball. Take two different guys who go 10 for 50 over the course of two weeks. The guy who strikes out 25 times is going to look worse than the guy who grounds to second 25 times."

Here's a couple articles from Baseball Prospectus about how strikeouts are overrated: here and here (you need a BP membership to read them, but if you do you're set).

*

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More on Kris Benson pitching Saturday in a minor-league game, Brad Lidge maybe throwing off a mound Monday and results from yesterday's split-squad against the Blue Jays and Tigers. Check out the photo gallery from yesterday's game against the Blue Jays.

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Posted by Todd Zolecki @ 6:44 AM  Permalink | 13 comments
13
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 8:31 AM, 03/06/2008
    The way I look at it Todd is that there's a better chance of getting on-base if you can put the ball in play. I know it's a little obvious but even if you cut down the Ks by 30-40 each person, it has the possibility to lead to more runs and/or wins. And as everyone knows, we want to win!!
    cg
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 8:48 AM, 03/06/2008
    Todd, Not sure if you actually believe what you're saying. I'd take putting the ball in play over striking out anytime - except maybe when the pitcher is batting with men on base. Didn't see the numbers relating to how a SO can impact momentum, staying in the batter's head the next time he's up, relating to basic fundamentals. Did any of the stats geeks who compile these numbers ever play sports? Steals don't help either, right?
    John in LA
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:02 AM, 03/06/2008
    Strikeouts are a Pitcher's best friend...nothing happens. Imagine if Howard put 30 more balls in play, thus elemintaing 30 K's. That's more Sac Flies, a few bloop hits, maybe an error or two? Strikeouts are bad, just ask Chase Utley about Game #1 against the Rockies!
    Casey
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:32 AM, 03/06/2008
    2007: 892 runs scored, second most wins in NL, most runs per game. 2006: 865 runs scored, most runs per game in NL. I don't think putting the ball in play or K is an issues. Pitching is. (ATTN: Philly.com—A long delay in getting comments posted will kill a blog)
    Joe in Haddonfield
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:16 PM, 03/06/2008
    Joe in Haddonfield, it's over the Phillies Zone is headed toward the "dustbin of history".
    Truth
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:10 PM, 03/06/2008
    Funny, I see mine moments after I post it.
    Deb in Dixie
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:03 PM, 03/06/2008
    Philly.com admin...why don't you address these issues? We all understand the register part, fine. But the lost comments (like mine this a.m.), the delay....how about you answer the public? You guys are killing the back and forth that made this such a great blog. I know it's not Zo, so step up and at least explain what the hell is going on, will ya? We deserve an answer.
    jimmymack
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:26 PM, 03/06/2008
    If strikeouts are so bad, they should have a demonstrable negative effect on run production. But the facts clearly state that there is no strong correlation between how many strikeouts a team has in a season and the amount of runs it scores. But there are very strong correlations between runs scored and on base percentage, slugging percentage, and hustle and grit. Oh wait, scratch that last one.
    Cromulents
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:29 PM, 03/06/2008
    When slow guys strikeout with men on, its better than hitting into a double play.
    Clinton, NJ
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 8:39 PM, 03/06/2008
    Anything involving the Baseball Prospectus stat geeks, I automatically ignore. I'd rather have fewer strikeouts if it means even a handful more hits. A fly ball with a runner on third and less than two outs is better than a strikeout.
    Jeg7777
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 8:51 PM, 03/06/2008
    I agree that strikeouts aren't such a big deal.....Except when it's Ryan. With J.Roll and/or Chase likely being on base when Ryan comes to bat, I'd love to see some of those SO's turn into base hits to drive in the runs. I admit Ryan's not a jack rabbit, but even if he draws an out, he could at least advance a runner.
    Norma
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:50 PM, 03/06/2008
    I've forward along the problems about posting. I'm not sure why this hasn't been resolved yet. But shoot me an e-mail if it keeps happening. I'll forward them to the powers that be.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:46 PM, 03/06/2008
    Thanks, Todd! It has been *slightly* better than in the beginning.
    Norma


13 comments
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